The people have spoken. They have expressed their mann ki baat. From Rajasthan to Madhya Pradesh to Chhattisgarh, the resounding sentiment is: we want Narendra Modi.
In all three states, urban or rural, Modi continues to be the messiah, the only man to make India Bharat, for men and women, young and old. It clearly means that ‘Pradhan Mantri toh Modi hi’. The people, conflicted over their decision just months before the 2024 Lok Sabha election, now seem determined to cast their vote for ‘kamal’. After all, it had been ‘Desh mai Modi, pradesh mai pradesh ka apna’.
But the 2023 assembly elections have confirmed that there exists no boundary between the state and national elections. Local faces and muddas (issues) no longer matter. Shivraj Singh Chouhan will not get the entire credit for BJP’s Madhya Pradesh win. Instead, it is Modi’s win. In Rajasthan, it was not anti-incumbency against Ashok Gehlot; rather, it was Modi’s charisma and people’s trust in him that worked across castes and dharma.
It was touted to be a huge gamble in the beginning—BJP fighting on Modi’s face and on his guarantees. This was probably why the exit polls painted a very hazy conflicting ‘win’. Meanwhile, Congress retained its old satraps, its regional faces. In Chhattisgarh, the battle was between Bhupesh Baghel and Narendra Modi. In Madhya Pradesh, the battle was between Kamal Nath and Narendra Modi. In Rajasthan, the battle was between Ashok Gehlot and Narendra Modi. At the forefront and centre was Narendra Modi and only Narendra Modi.
Also read: BJP sweeps heartland in Rajasthan, MP & Chhattisgarh. Consolation prize for Congress in Telangana
Modi vs the rest
Looking at the BJP’s handsome victory margin in all three states, it is clear that Amit Shah’s gamble worked – Modi won handsomely. Second, all other factors that we probe and report on were weighed against and with Modi. Dhan politics and free revdis in Chhattisgarh went for a toss against Modi’s chehra. Anti-incumbency against Shivraj or the much-hyped Laadli-Laxmi scheme went lacklustrous against Modi’s chehra. In Rajasthan, caste and polarisation was weighed with Modi’s chehra. And as it has been happening in Lok Sabha elections since 2014, many unknown faces and unknown candidates of BJP have won the assembly elections in the North in Modi’ name.
For me, the election was too close to call; it was a tightrope. As it was for pollsters, journalists, and many in aam janta too. Be it Chhattisgarh or Rajasthan, my first day of travel suggested that the contest was tight. As for Madhya Pradesh, the perception was at play. Madhya Pradesh was swimming in the ‘badlav bhaav’ perception. There was no fatigue with Shivraj, nor was there any ringing cheer for Kamal Nath. Rather, it was all about perception, and the deafening silence of the voters. And thus, a perception that ended playing well in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan too. Looking at the resounding comfortable win of the BJP in the Hindi heartland, it can be said with conviction that people voted for BJP while being driven by the ‘Modi perception’. So, what is this ‘Modi perception’?
It means that Modi will pick the right man (or woman) to govern the state like he does himself at the Centre. This understanding comes from my conversations in Rajasthan. As I had mentioned in my previous reports, everybody who favored BJP did not care about the CM face. Vasundhara Raje was not in fray like Ashok Gehlot was for Congress. The janta was of the view that Modi would place a leader who would be tenacious as him and mirror a Yogi. And then there is the whole Ram Mandir, sanatan dharma mood. A mood which had penetrated the Adivasi belt in Chhattisgarh too, where the BJP’s win speaks volumes.
Also read: BJP ‘win’ in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh is built on perception. Voters are falling for it
On to 2024 now
Devoid of a regional leadership, or any regional mettle, the BJP pulled the region back from the benevolent Baghel who had fulfilled all the promises during his tenure. But as I had reported from Chhattisgarh on 10 November, the election was not being fought on muddas or freebies. Instead, there was a sentiment, which resounded across castes, creed, and sex. ‘State mein Baghel, country mein Modi’. But the people have minced their own words. Here onwards, It is all about ‘State (Hindi heartland) mein bhi Modi, desh mein bhi Modi’.
Except in Telangana, where both the face and the Hindu narrative have lost. As for the Congress, the party has been reduced to political wilderness in the Hindi heartland. Their empathic win in Telangana, after Karnataka, however, has set the ball rolling for a new narrative for the next four months.
However, if there’s something that the 2023 assembly elections have declared, it is that the 2024 Lok Sabha election too will be as interesting, intensive and conflicting. Across new India, elections once again will be fought on Modi’s chehra and the rest. And as the Hindi heartland gets pocketed by BJP while the Congress wins minds down South, new lines have come into existence that are thicker and bolder. The 2024 election is going to be a mixed medley of caste and sanatan dharma of North versus the minds of South.
Shruti Vyas is a journalist based in New Delhi. She writes on politics, international relations and current affairs. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)