New Delhi: The Carney-Modi meet earlier this week signalled a rapprochement between India and Canada, two countries inextricably linked due to the large Indian community in Canada.
After the high of 2015, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was feted by his then-Canadian counterpart Stephen Harper, the relationship completely unravelled under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who sought his 15 seconds of fame by cratering ties with India to protect his own government in September 2023, undoing over two decades of careful diplomacy.
In his first few weeks at the helm of affairs, Prime Minister Mark Carney has seemingly been able to reset ties with New Delhi, which had been downgraded with the expulsion and withdrawal of respective High Commissioners around eight months ago. And that is why the reset of India-Canada ties is ThePrint Newsmaker of the Week.
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Snapping of India-Canada relationship
Carney’s victory in the April federal elections led to the view in New Delhi that a rapprochement is on the cards, with the appointment of High Commissioners, the logical first step. During election season, Carney referred to Canada’s relationship with India as “incredibly important” while deflecting any questions regarding the major irritant in ties — the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
Nijjar, an India-designated terrorist, was gunned down outside a gurdwara in Surrey, British Columbia, on 18 June 2023. Trudeau, three months after the killing, informed the House of Commons that Ottawa was investigating “credible allegations” that linked Indian officials to the killing of Nijjar. New Delhi called these allegations “absurd and motivated”.
There was no off-ramp for either New Delhi or Ottawa to de-escalate the diplomatic tension, especially as Trudeau’s domestic struggles by then were an instrument of foreign policy. By October 2024, ties had effectively been snapped, with India expelling six Canadian diplomats, while withdrawing its High Commissioner and five other diplomats from Canada.
Trudeau’s minority government, being propped up by the New Democratic Party (NDP), supported Sikh separatists to wield large influence on Ottawa’s foreign policy vis-a-vis its ties with India.
The NDP at the time was led by Jagmeet Singh, who had in the past indicated support for Sikh separatism. In 2017, he had refused to link Sikh extremists to the 1985 bombing of Air India Flight 182, which left 329 people dead. For New Delhi, these separatists being given space in Canada to promote and fundraise their anti-India plank had real security ramifications – concerns that Ottawa ignored.
Carney’s approach to this has been to leave the matter of Nijjar’s killing and associated irritants to the law enforcement agencies of the two countries, a measure welcomed by New Delhi.
Modi’s dash to Alberta further indicated the interest in both India and Canada to reset ties in an increasingly unstable world. With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and the collapse of the NDP, ties between India and Canada were finally given the space for a reset.
Also read: Collapse of Jagmeet Singh-led NDP & the waning political clout of Sikh separatists in Canada
Trump and the waning star of Sikh separatists
Trump’s return upended the politics of Canada. For Canadians, the rupture in ties with the US, which accounts for over 70 per cent of Canada’s trade, became an existential crisis. If elections were to be held in January 2025, the Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre was set to win a large majority, while the Liberal Party led by Trudeau would have potentially collapsed to its lows of 2011.
However, Trudeau’s resignation and Carney’s rise gave the Liberals, which has governed Canada for large parts of the 20th century, a chance to rise in the polls. The question at the time was no longer just the domestic situation in Canada — the affordability crisis or immigration — but rather who would be the better candidate to handle Trump.
Poilievre, who ran a Trump-esque campaign, saw his favourability drop in the polls. The Liberals rose, while the NDP support collapsed. With the Liberals winning a large number of seats, a few short of the majority, it meant they no longer had to rely on the NDP to govern the country. From 24 seats in the House of Commons, the NDP fell to 7, which helped stem the power of Sikh separatist groups in the Canadian parliament.
The Conservative Party, looking to build a big tent, had sought votes from the Sikh separatists as well. But it seems all that was for nought. In this scenario, Carney, who was elevated to a saviour-like status, has been able to make a break from having domestic vote banks influence foreign policy.
For Canada, the need of the hour is to diversify itself from the US. Carney, earlier this month, announced his intention to boost Canada’s defence spending, while promising to reduce Ottawa’s strategic dependence on the US.
The two factors – the collapse of the Sikh separatist leaning parties and the return of Trump – has led to a retooling in Ottawa’s approach to New Delhi. The current Liberal cabinet has a number of faces from Trudeau’s government. Melanie Joly, who as foreign minister under Trudeau led the charge against India, retains her government role under Carney. Chrystia Freeland, the former deputy prime minister in the previous government, has returned with an important role in Carney’s cabinet.
However, despite continuity in members, Carney has been able to stamp his authority on foreign policy, with Anita Anand appointed as the new foreign minister, who spoke to External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar within days of her appointment.
The challenges Ottawa faces has allowed it to approach New Delhi more effectively, and return a sense of maturity to India-Canada ties. However, as politics is never static, the Sikh separatists may rise again in Canadian politics, but maybe at least this time, the irritants would be dealt with at the appropriate levels, without the need for political brinkmanship from either administration.
Views are personal.
(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)