As larger geopolitical shocks rattle regional security architectures and frustrate normalisation processes across the globe, almost out of nowhere Mian Sahib Nawaz Sharif returns to his nest on a chartered plane called “Umeed-e-Pakistan”. For the uninitiated, the longest-serving PM of Pakistan remains mired in massive corruption cases even though he scores better than his colleagues in stabilising the country and its place in South Asia. He was in London on a self-imposed exile for the last four years. His baby brother Shehbaz Sharif was the PM before Anwar ul Haq Kakar took office as the Caretaker OM.
First, some drama
As if the semantics of “Hope of Pakistan” weren’t corny enough, his arrival provided X (formerly Twitter) with sufficient content. Emotional Kodak moments followed, with his diva daughter and politician Maryam Nawaz and his brother and Shehbaz Sharif standing under a canopy of expensive fireworks.
Why has a supposedly ailing Nawaz Sharif decided to return to the very watan he absconded from four years ago? Is it merely to instil confidence in his supporters? Only if things were so simple with our country cousins!
Nawaz has ended his exile to re-enter Pakistani power games — with some preparation.
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Nawaz’s 9 years, 215 days
In a country marred by coups where no PM has ever completed their full term of five years, Nawaz served for 9 years and 215 days across three tenures. Indeed, he had perfected the trivariate appeasement of the three As — Allah, America, and Army — better than anybody else.
The former PM’s efforts to stabilize Pakistan’s relations with India and South Asia were thwarted by his ouster by General Parvez Musharraf and the subsequent Kargil War in 1999. Though Nawaz returned with a thumping victory in 2013, he soon got mired in corruption charges. That said, his last term did offer relative economic stability to Pakistan.
Nawaz was a PM who didn’t miss an opportunity to make his rivals hot under the collar. Two years after his ouster, in 2019, he took it too far when he misused the four-week bail granted to him by the supreme court and flew to vilayat. By then, he had miffed the third A of the trivariate appeasement mantra—the army generals of Pakistan.
Apart from plotting, waging, and losing wars with India and allegedly persecuting the Baloch people, the army keeps itself busy with two more tasks. One, puppeteering the political leadership, and two, according to Pakistani commentator Ayesha Siddiqa, running all kinds of businesses — from cornflakes to cement manufacturing.
In more recent years, what single-handedly ruined Pakistan’s fragile economy and infested the country with radicals was the Imran Khan government. The army’s blue-eyed boy at the start, Khan soon alienated the military by publicising his allegiance to Allah and taking it too seriously. Moreover, as ties with the United States soured, the former PM turned to the richer Muslim countries in the Gulf and China for economic investments — it soon turned into desperate pleas for bail-outs.
Pakistani army generals seized the moment, and then began the downfall of Imran Khan. He stepped down, but only after some more unprecedented political theatrics, violent clashes, sky-high inflation, and abysmally dilapidating foreign reserves.
Shehbaz Sharif replaced Khan Saab, but Pakistanis’ and the State’s woes have continued. And so has the daredevilry of Imran Khan’s supporters, who seem committed to his ideal of “sarkar-e-madina” against the infidels and actually vandalised the army headquarters in Rawalpindi and a senior general’s house in Lahore some months ago. The Pakistani army has seldom been more baffled by backing a self-inflicted disaster in Imran Khan, which allowed a free hand to radicals that are now uncontrollable. What’s more, Khan Saab’s popularity remains as high as ever.
It is in this context that the generals are getting the exiled grand maestro of Pakistani politics back into the country. But remember that it was them that made him abscond in the first place, too. For our country cousins, the more things change the more they remain the same. What next?
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New era for Sharif and the Sheriff?
With newfound blessings from the Sheriff — that is, the army — Sharif has returned as the new hope of Pakistan. Technically, he should have been arrested upon his return. But the army seems to have made it obvious that he’s the chosen one — by directing the supreme court to give him judicial protection. It means that the army is looking to balance the obsession with Imran Khan and hoping to rectify the damage incurred.
Nawaz’s promises to improve the dilapidated state of his country fall perfectly in tandem with the army that is making sure to get Imran charged with another serious corruption case. This is likely to keep him behind bars for long, until he, too, plans to abscond and keep the tradition alive. As for Nawaz, his return has been timed with upcoming elections in Pakistan in 2024 (already delayed this year). He is likely to contest and perhaps win too.
However, since it is Pakistan, one wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a black-magic supporter of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) gang launching an attack on Mian Sahib or a similar display of anguish through other means. Anything is possible in the alternate universe of Jinnah Sahib’s creation.
What it means for India
Succinctly, Nawaz’s re-entry into Pakistan might mean some political stability and better ties with India, perhaps a fresh engagement. After all, under the fireworks-lit skies, with his daughter and brother by his side and a dove perched on his shoulder for added effect, Nawaz had promised as much.
And these promises have some merit. In his previous terms, he did reach out to India, but the attempts didn’t fructify. In fact, his leaked tussle with the army to stop cross-border terrorism became the real reason for his ouster in 2017.
It should also be remembered that much water has flown since he last served. New Delhi won’t be taking anything he says at face value.
It will be interesting to see how the Kashmir issue is raked up under Nawaz, who talks of starting a “dialogue” with India on the issue. India, though, already resolved the matter of Kashmir in 2019 — a lawfully internal issue — and now asks for only one kind of dialogue, which is about cross-border terrorism. Whether the Pakistan army, which deploys terrorism as an instrument of statecraft, makes room for it is something that remains to be seen.
Internationally, the big players are fraught with ever-expanding crises — a long war in Ukraine and a terrible conflict in West Asia, which is consuming all of Pakistan’s friends in the Gulf. Speculation on a third front in the straits remains high. Pakistan has, of late, tried to cosy up to the West by supplying weapons to Ukraine and play the other side in Moscow by striking a deal for buying discounted Russian oil in Yuan.
Islamabad has tried to position itself as an Indo-Pacific player and got itself an invite to one of Brussels’ forums. However, such one-off events would not mean much traction for Islamabad in the larger geopolitics of our times. Pakistan is suffering from not one but several internal maladies. Any solution to its penury lies in the inner folds of its deceptional identity, the core of its despondent being — none of which is an easy feat.
The writer is an Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Center, at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)