Though the chorus for unity is growing, one cannot ignore the fact that there are too many players aspiring to lead the non- BJP forces in 2019.
Will the anti-BJP forces, which are making a bid to unite ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, succeed? Obviously, the Karnataka victory has boosted the efforts of the opposition with national and regional parties coming together. They are worried about the BJP’s expansion plans in their backyard as well as their own survival. After the BJP’s muscular march was first halted in Gujarat, and now in Karnataka, there is a charged political atmosphere with a new political discourse. Congress president Rahul Gandhi has significantly declared, “We have protected the voice of the people of Karnataka. We will do the same for every state. The opposition, together in coordination, will beat the BJP.”
The impressive presence of the galaxy of opposition leaders at the swearing-in ceremony of the JD(S)-Congress coalition leader Kumaraswamy in Bengaluru on Wednesday signals a new effort towards opposition unity and an impressive show of strength. The guest list included non-BJP leaders like Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, N. Chandrababu Naidu, Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Akhilesh Yadav, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief Ajit Singh, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) working president M.K. Stalin, Left leaders Sitaram Yechury and D. Raja. The bonhomie displayed at the function cannot be ignored.
This is not the first time a united opposition will be attempting to vanquish the ruling party. It happened in 1977 when the non-Congress parties threw out the Indira Gandhi government. In 1989, the Left and the Right came together to instal the short- lived V.P. Singh government. The United Front coalition led by Deve Gowda and later I.K. Gujral lasted just two years from 1996 to 1998. Congress leader Sonia Gandhi cobbled up a coalition to throw out the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in 2004. However, the opposition has a long way to go with the non-BJP parties taking baby steps towards building unity.
Regional players, national ambitions
While the opposition knows that unity is paramount in the current political scenario, the road ahead is bumpy. Is it enough to expect that anti-BJP sentiments alone would work for opposition unity?
It needs much more than that.
The BJP boasts of a strong leader, unlimited resources, committed cadre, and excellent communication skills. There are inherent contradictions in the opposition with no common ground except the greed for power. Even before the Karnataka success, regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar and K. Chandrasekhar Rao had been holding meetings to form an anti-Modi front. The Congress-JD (S) coalition experiment to keep the BJP out has given a new impetus to these efforts. The conscious decision of the Gandhis to take a back seat while allowing the junior coalition partner to take centre stage in Karnataka is seen signalling the Congress party’s commitment to challenge the BJP. For ambitious leaders like Mamata Banerjee, it has opened up new possibilities for fresh equations. The million-dollar question is with their king-size egos will they work together?
Second, despite the newfound relationship between the Congress and the JD (S), the two parties will have to overcome many hurdles in power-sharing, governance and seat-sharing later. The success of the future opposition unity also depends on the stability of the Kumaraswamy government. The BJP is waiting, and its leader Yeddyurappa has given just five months to the new government. If it collapses before 2019, it may not auger well for opposition unity.
Third, though the chorus for unity is growing, one cannot ignore the fact that there are too many players aspiring to lead the non-BJP forces. Leaders like Sharad Pawar and Mamata Banerjee are not willing to work under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. Others like KCR want to keep the prime ministerial option open while Rahul Gandhi has declared that he is willing to be the prime ministerial candidate if his party does well. The question is will they agree on who should lead the opposition? Modi will benefit if they don’t project a leader.
Fourth, what is their common minimum agenda? This needs to be worked out.
Avoid division of anti-BJP votes
The political atmosphere is changing and after four years, there is some disenchantment with the Modi government and people are still waiting for the promised “achche din”. But Modi is still popular, and many are willing to justify his inability to deliver. It may be a good sign that the Congress-JD (S) can possibly continue their alliance and so will the SP-BSP in Uttar Pradesh, but more alliances need to be forged to avoid division of anti-BJP votes. The opposition needs to project itself as an alternative, and choose their leader sooner than later. The Congress role is important because the national party and the regional satraps should work in tandem.
Since the secular/non-secular narrative has not clicked with the electorate, the opposition also needs to find a new narrative to woo the voters as mere BJP bashing will not help. There is some hope for the opposition. After all, the BJP came to power in 2014 with just 31 per cent vote share. Even if the combined opposition manages to win 45 to 50 per cent vote share, they may pose a challenge to the BJP. Modi may face his Waterloo if (it is a very big if) the united opposition challenges him.