India’s electoral landscape has always been marked by diversity, both in terms of the issues that resonate with voters and the political dynamics at play. Contrary to the often-monolithic portrayal in national media, there is no singular national narrative that binds the country’s elections. Each state, with its unique political, social, and cultural context, presents a distinct set of challenges and opportunities for political parties. In this sense, Indian elections resemble a tennis match, where each set is independent of the others, and the outcome in one state does not necessarily influence the results in another.
The recent assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, as well as by-elections in several states such as Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Rajasthan, West Bengal, and Karnataka, offer a revealing example of this fragmented electoral reality. The results from these states highlight that local factors, grassroots dynamics, and region-specific sentiments play a pivotal role in shaping voter behaviour, often in ways that defy national trends.
Maharashtra: A wake-up call for national media
The outcome in Maharashtra was particularly surprising, underscoring a critical lesson about the mainstream media’s inability to fully grasp the nuanced sentiments of the electorate. In Maharashtra, the influence of satellite organisations linked to political parties—especially the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which has deep-rooted social connections beyond the formal political structure—helped the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) make significant gains. In contrast, the Congress party, lacking such broad social networks, found itself on the back foot.
While the results in Maharashtra were a setback for Congress, they also serve as a reminder of the growing importance of non-political social organisations in shaping the political landscape. National media often overlooks this factor, which can lead to a skewed understanding of voter preferences and the true state of Indian politics.
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State-specific dynamics
State elections and by-elections further emphasise the absence of a unified national trend. Each state has its own political “grammar,” which manifests in divergent voting patterns. In Jharkhand, for example, voter behaviour differed sharply from Maharashtra, while in Karnataka, the by-election results conveyed an entirely different message.
The by-elections across several states provide a snapshot of the diverse political realities at play. In UP, the BJP made significant gains, while in Kerala, Congress and the Communist Party retained their seats, with the BJP failing to secure the seat in Palakkad and finishing second. In Rajasthan, the BJP and Congress split the results, with the BJP securing five seats and the Congress one. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) emerged victorious, while in Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) swept three of the seats, leaving Congress with only one.
One of the most notable outcomes came from Madhya Pradesh, where BJP’s forest minister Ramniwas Rawat lost the Vijaypur assembly by-poll to a Congress candidate—another indication that voter sentiment can vary dramatically, even within the same party’s strongholds. Similarly, in Karnataka, Congress managed to secure a clean sweep, underscoring the state’s distinctive political character.
Congress could clinch the Nanded Lok Sabha seat, but suffered a rout in the accompanying six legislative segments in assembly elections illustrating how contrasting the elections can be for the same region. These results highlight a crucial point: state elections are driven by local issues, and the outcomes rarely follow a predictable national script. The influence of regional parties, local alliances, and the specific concerns of voters in each state cannot be overstated.
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Importance of grassroots engagement and dialogue
One important takeaway from these elections is the need for political parties to engage in continuous dialogue with the public, beyond the electoral cycle. Politics should not be reduced to mere electioneering; it should involve an ongoing, deeper conversation with the people. This dialogue should not only be about rallying support for votes but should also address the lived experiences, concerns, and aspirations of the electorate.
Only through such sustained, meaningful engagement can parties build long-term relationships with voters and truly understand the pulse of the electorate.
Priyanka Gandhi’s growing popularity
In the broader context of national politics, it is also worth noting Priyanka Gandhi’s victory in the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat. This win marks a significant personal milestone for her. Not only did Priyanka Gandhi secure a comfortable victory, but she also surpassed the previous winning margin in the 2024 general election, indicating growing acceptance of her leadership. This victory reflects increasing enthusiasm and support for her, suggesting that she is carving out her own political space.
Conclusion: No national trend, only local realities
The results from the recent assembly elections and by-elections across various states reaffirm a simple truth: there is no unified national political trend in India. Each state, with its unique political culture and local realities, follows its own trajectory. Mainstream media often fails to capture this complexity, instead searching for a monolithic national narrative that does not exist. In this fragmented landscape, local factors, grassroots organisations, and the ability to connect with voters on a personal level remain decisive in shaping electoral outcomes.
A key development emerging from these elections is the BJP’s shift in strategy. The party is increasingly institutionalising its election approach, as evidenced in Haryana and now in Maharashtra. It is no longer relying solely on the iconic image of Narendra Modi. While the BJP once secured victories primarily through his personal appeal, the focus is now on a more structured, institutional framework, signalling the diminishing influence of his image in directly galvanising voter support.
This evolving strategy underscores the importance of local dynamics and party infrastructure in shaping electoral success. The future of Indian politics lies in the ability of political parties to adapt to these state-specific dynamics and engage with the electorate in a deeper, more continuous way. As national political narratives lose relevance in an increasingly diverse electoral landscape, it is the localised approach that will determine political outcomes.
Karti P Chidambaram is a Member of Parliament for Sivaganga, and a Member of the All India Congress Committee. He is also the Vice President of the Tamil Nadu Tennis Association. His X handle is @KartiPC. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)