All of a sudden, there is a spurt in leaders from southern and northern states meeting or inviting each other. There has always been a north-south divide in Indian politics. But now, there’s a twist in the tale. So, what is causing it?
A simple answer? The 2024 Lok Sabha election, which is 15 months away. Many leaders have started devising strategies and are hopping between north and south. For non-BJP political parties in the north, the 130 seats in the five southern states and one union territory are a major attraction.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi will launch his party’s Bharat Jodo Yatra from Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu on 7 September. He will be joined by Tamil Nadu CM M.K. Stalin, Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot and Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel. Recently, Telangana CM K. Chandrashekar Rao met Bihar CM Nitish Kumar in Patna. And Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal travelled to Tamil Nadu on CM Stalin’s invite to launch three educational projects.
PM Narendra Modi commissioned Indian Naval Ship (INS) Vikrant in Kochi, Kerala. Union Home Minister Amit Shah chose Kerala to hold the southern zonal council meeting. Earlier, BJP accommodated B.S. Yediyurappa in the parliamentary board, the party’s apex decision-making body. Last month, BJP inducted Tamil Nadu leader and the national president of its women’s wing, Vanathi Srinivasan, into its chief election committee.
Rahul Gandhi brought two warring Congress leaders D.K. Shivakumar and SIddaramaiah on stage and raised their hands as if they have reconciled to work together for Congress. This was similar to Gandhi holding Navjot Singh Siddhu and Charanjit Singh Channi’s hands in Punjab. What happened? The Congress was washed out in the assembly election that followed.
These acts show that both the national parties are keeping an eagle eye on the 129 Lok Sabha seats in the five southern states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana) and one union territory of Puducherry. In the late 1980s, there were towering political personalities like N.T. Rama Rao, M.G. Ramachandran, Jayalalithaa. Today’s southern leaders are trying to replicate their successes.
Southern states’ caste-ridden polity
Political parties in the south have rarely experienced north Indian parties looking to connect with the southern region. There are 6-8 powerful caste groups that dominate the South. They are the Lingayat, Vokkaliga, Ezhava, Gownder, Thevar, Khamma and Reddy.
Leaders of these communities produced freedom fighters. Then came the rise of regional parties irritated with the Congress and BJP due to their continued suppression the national politics.
But now BJP is zeroing in on the southern states. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) chief K Chandrasekhar Rao visiting Patna to discuss strategies for the 2024 Lok Sabha election with Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav. And Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal visiting Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
Moreover, Nitish is set to visit Chennai to meet DMK leader MK Stalin in October. Mamata Banerjee of Trinamool Congress tried her luck in Goa, but after a flop show, she decided not to venture in the South.
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Modi-BJP’s popularity in South
PM Narendra Modi’s popularity in South India has grown. What are the reasons for it? Eight years of smooth sailing at the Centre, unlike the UPA era which was riddled with corruption allegations. This popularity is visible in other ways, too.
There are speculations of Chandrababu Naidu returning to the NDA fold. Interestingly, in recent months, there were four meetings between Andhra Pradesh CM YS Jagan Mohan Reddy and Narendra Modi as well as between Modi and Andhra opposition leader Chandrababu Naidu. Does it mean that the BJP has no enemy in Andhra Pradesh now, with Congress getting decimated after the state’s split and both CM and opposition wooing BJP?
Space for a national party in South
The BJP is certainly growing in South India. It currently rules Karnataka and Puducherry. At the same time, the Congress has lost its base in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The BJP getting a second term at the Centre has risen its graph in the South like a Sputnik. Its aggressive ‘Look South’ policy is certainly yielding results.
The BJP’s slogan is ‘First Telangana, Next Tamil Nadu’. To a chief this, Modi, Amit Shah and BJP president J.P. Nadda are visiting all the southern states in a coordinated manner, and on a regular basis. They are more focussed in Telangana. That is why TRS chief KCR is politically rattled. KCR wants to eat into BJP’s base in North India.
There is a clear distinction between the ideologies, approaches and narratives of north Indian parties south Indian parties. South Indian voters have seen cine stars become chief ministers. They have seen students-led startups bring glory to their states during the pandemic. And it helped Modi when thousands of students from the region who were stranded in Ukraine were safely brought home.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election is fast approaching. And the BJP’s outreach on social media as well as through on-ground network is certainly enough to spring surprises in the southern states after the election results are out. The 5G network, artificial intelligence and optical fibre network unleashed in remote villages will play a major role. The 2024 Lok Sabha election campaign will be unique in southern states. The Modi government was meticulous in distributing Padma Awards last time, including many personalities from the South. In his Mann Ki Baat radio programme, Modi introduces many South Indian poor persons. He has also reached out to the middle class in South India, which other parties failed to do.
Modi and the BJP have managed to attract the youth in the style of a poll campaign in South India.
The author tweets @RAJAGOPALAN1951. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)