Jammu is once again in the grip of terror attacks and infiltration from across the border. Twelve Army jawans have been killed in the region since January 2024, with nine terror attacks in just the last two months. Fingers are now being pointed at Narendra Modi 3.0 – which assumed power with a reduced number of seats – over the issue. The abrogation of Article 370 was a core agenda of the Bharatiya Janata Party in almost every election except 2024, and the undercurrent it had among the party’s dedicated vote bank cannot be overlooked. The increasing acts of terrorism in Jammu should, therefore, be a major cause of concern for the BJP government.
The central government should know that merely abrogating Article 370 does not put an end to cross-border terror attacks. The issue of Jammu and Kashmir has been highly emotive for successive political establishments in Pakistan. It’s often a card played during elections in the country, or used to cover up massive governance failures.
Pakistan might not have forgotten its 1971 humiliation—and neither the Modi government’s bold step to get rid of Article 370 in 2019. What makes it even more unpalatable for Islamabad is the total lack of support on the matter from the global community, including all-weather allies such as China and a section of the Arab world. It is possible that Pakistan and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) kept their fingers crossed over the Indian Opposition’s attempts to stop the BJP from coming to power and/or put in motion the process of restoring statehood in J&K.
Though the Congress did not mention anything about Article 370 in its 2024 election manifesto, it did bring up this issue in 2019. Section 37 of Congress’ 2019 manifesto mentioned the party being “witness to the developments in Jammu & Kashmir since the Instrument of Accession was signed on 26 October 1947”.
While the 2019 Congress manifesto affirmed that the whole of Jammu & Kashmir is part of India, it did harp on “the unique history of the state and the unique circumstances under which the state acceded to India that led to the inclusion of Article 370 in the Constitution of India”. Nothing will be done or allowed to change the Constitutional position, the manifesto declared, surreptitiously indicating the restoration of Article 370.
Understand Pakistan’s plans
Islamabad would have surely kept a close watch on India’s elections. The Pakistan Army would have subsequently decided to allow non-state actors to create chaos in J&K, deflating the central government’s claims of peace after the abrogation of Article 370.
This was probably done with two objectives in mind. First, to weaken the government’s claims about Article 370. The other could be to infiltrate terrorists and sophisticated weapons through the scarcely defended border as the Indian Army was deployed elsewhere for election duty.
Pakistan appears to have a long-drawn plan to keep the J&K issue alive and internationalised. With a failing economy and uncontrolled inflation, Islamabad has to heed the diktats of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other lending agencies. The United States expects Pakistan to go slow on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) so that Beijing’s objectives in the Indian Ocean are either altered or delayed, while the IMF continues to frown upon the Chinese debt trap vis-à-vis CPEC.
Meanwhile, the Pakistan Navy recently assumed command of the Combined Task Force (CTF) 150 – a 34-nation grouping responsible for maritime security in the Middle East. The CTF keeps a tab on criminal and terrorist outfits and their illicit activities, as well as illegal narcotics deals. Its tasks also involve anti-piracy initiatives, where the Indian navy has proved its capabilities beyond doubt. All these engagements provide Pakistan with a much-needed opportunity to rub shoulders with the international community, where it can raise the Kashmir issue. Increased terror attacks in J&K provide sufficient ammunition to Islamabad to argue that the abrogation of Article 370 is ‘unacceptable’ to the people of Kashmir.
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Modi govt must take stock
The Union government needs to get serious about its agenda to normalise the situation in J&K by initiating the process of elections. But before that, strong anti-terrorism measures should be put in place immediately. It should not be difficult to identify and neutralise terrorists and infiltrators in the Jammu region, which is not a radicalised area.
Successive Indian governments have tried to wean Islamabad away from using terrorism as state policy and turn to economic engagement instead. It will be futile for the Modi government to try the same failed tools to deal with Pakistan.
Restoring the statehood of J&K and installing a democratically elected government in Srinagar is important. But making Pakistan pay a heavy price for terror shenanigans, like another proactive attack on terror camps across the border, assumes precedence.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)