Just as a sobered NDA returns to power after unexpected twists and turns, electoral excitement has begun in the European Union – the second-largest democratic electorate in the world after India.
Between 6 and 9 June, 370 million voters from different member states will elect 720 members of the European Parliament, the world’s only directly elected transnational assembly. These MEPs represent the interests of about 450 million EU citizens at the European level. In a second phase on 18 July, these MEPs will elect the head of the EU Commission. The commission is responsible for proposing and implementing EU law and the day-to-day running of the bloc.
World’s only transnational election
The members of the EU parliament are elected in an interesting manner.
Just like any general election, people vote for their national political parties. Each EU member state has a proportional number of MEP seats depending on its population. The largest number of seats, 96, is allocated to Germany, followed by France (81) Italy (76) and Spain (61). Smaller European countries have only six seats each.
Upon election, representatives join European transnational political groups based on political ideology or orientation. These groups comprise far-Leftists, Socialists and Democrats, Greens, Liberals, Christian Democrats, Conservatives and far-Right wingers. There is also an extra group that belongs to non-affiliated parties.
In the previous election two largest European parliamentary groups were Centrist—the Centre-Right European People’s Party (EPP) with 176 seats and the Centre-Left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) with 139 seats. The Renew Europe (RE) group represents the liberals. Over the years, the RE and the Greens have played a crucial role in shaping majorities in the transnational body getting 102 and 72 seats respectively in the previous election. The latter, however, do not look as popular as they did in 2019.
All member countries will vote between 6-9 June. Ireland and the Czech Republic will vote today – 7 June –following the Netherlands, which went to polls yesterday. Others such as Italy, Slovakia, Malta and Latvia will vote on 8 June, while the remaining 20 EU member states will cast their ballot on 9 June.
This year, even though the far-Right is expected to make stellar gains, the usually dominating blocs, the EPP and the Social Democrats, look poised to emerge as the largest group. This will ensure that Ursula Von der Leyen’s second term as European Commission president remains a plausible outcome.
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Far-Right mainstreamed but not united
The official strategy of mainstream Centrist parties to keep the far-Right at the fringes of the European spectrum has been challenged in the last few years. It is the first time in European history that at least six countries – Italy, Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia and the Czech Republic – have a far-Right government. This comes alongside the scintillating win of Geert Wilders, who recently struck a deal to form the most Right-wing government in Dutch history.
The ubiquitous rise of hard Right parties across Europe has been nothing short of spectacular. However, the far-Right surge in countries with the maximum number of seats in the European Parliament—Germany, France and Italy—could have played a decisive role in creating a united far-Right front along with others. In the European Parliament, these far-Right parties are usually members of two blocs. The first one comprises European Conservatives and Reformists, where Italian PM Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy dominates. The second one includes Identity and Democracy, where France’s Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and Germany’s AfD dominated (until recently).
Ruptures in far-Right unity became most evident when AfD was recently expelled from the Identity and Democracy group over a series of scandals. In the ongoing election, while there is likely to be higher mainstreaming of the far-Right over tighter border controls and anti-immigration, which challenge the core liberal democratic values of the European project, the fissures among them will keep them divided.
Additionally, the two main faces, Georgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen, have been very pro-Ukraine and have upheld European solidarity against Russia, although the Hungarian far-Right political party Fidesz has a different view. Today’s Right-wing dabbles in ‘many shades of right’ that are directly proportional to their acceptability in the continent.
The rise in the Right’s acceptability across European societies has also pushed Centrist governments to take a tougher stance on immigration. This is particularly evident in France, where Emmanuel Macron’s government recently appointed Gabriel Attal as the Prime Minister. Attal has a tougher stance on immigration, which would have seemed out of sync with Macron’s liberal outlook otherwise.
The acceptability of the Right and the mainstreaming of their causes by the Centrists will shape the contours of European policies, particularly about some of their most fundamental values.
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The China question
The Europeans need a coherent China strategy but they are far from it.
One of the most vocal supporters of de-risking from China is EU President Von der Leyen. She has been pushing for a strategy that doesn’t align with the German economic approach toward Beijing.
Despite such divergences, there has been an overall acknowledgement that, at the EU project’s most vulnerable time, her leadership acted as a strong unifying force. As the bloc was recuperating from the massive setbacks of the Covid-19 pandemic, the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 put the continent in a security crisis. All through, Von der Leyen remained the face of European solidarity. With no real challenger on the horizon, she could comfortably make a comeback.
Regarding China, the bloc’s larger attempts at refining the de-risking toolbox will continue, and so will more inquiries into China’s unfair trade practices. The internal debate on Germany’s “self-centred” China approach is not going anywhere in the short term either.
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What Brussels and New Delhi can prioritise
The key takeaway for both sides will be continuity in bilateral policies. Perhaps the EU will embark on the much-needed review of its stringent sustainability agenda that has been proving out of sync with its economic security agenda. This has been remarkably unnerving in the bloc’s approach toward its free trade agreements. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, for instance, is seen as a no–starter when negotiating FTAs with emerging economies including India.
In New Delhi, the Lok Sabha election results have nudged the government to focus more on tangible development and economic outcomes than cultural nationalism. This could mean a more sober approach toward reviewing the EU’s demands of securing bilateral investment guarantees; something India has been reluctant to give so far.
The under-negotiation bilateral treaty on investment could unlock vast investments that the bloc is aiming to channel away from China, which are landing not in India but in Vietnam and Singapore. While the improvement of the investment ecosystem in India is a set of broader corrective measures that will show favourable results over time, reducing legal hindrances could be the first step forward.
The two sides should also work to actualise their promising MoU on semiconductors in the next five years and chart a vision of economic security through the Trade and Technology Council set up in 2023.
However, aligning on maritime security issues will be on the agenda too. With brand new missions such as the Aspides and tools like ‘Coordinated Maritime Presence’, the five years until 2029 will see Brussels and New Delhi converge further over sharing maritime domain awareness and tackling hybrid threats in the wider Indo-Pacific.
The writer is an Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Center, at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)