Political Scientist Gilles Verniers’ data on Muslim candidates fielded by alliances in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections reveals a significant underrepresentation of the community in Indian electoral politics. For a people who constitute 14.2 per cent of the Indian population, they no longer hold the power to decide who comes to power at the Centre.
Only four out of 541 candidates (0.7 per cent) in the NDA and 50 out of 690 (7.2 per cent) in the INDIA coalition belong to the Muslim community. If we look at individual parties, the BJP has one Muslim candidate out of 441 (0.2 per cent), the Congress has 19 out of 328 candidates (5.8 per cent), the SP has four out of 62 candidates (6.5 per cent), and Trinamool Congress (TMC) has six out of 42 candidates (14.3 per cent).
This data highlights the Muslim community’s limited influence and the challenges they face in achieving adequate representation. In this opinion piece, I will explore the factors contributing to this marginalisation and the implications for India’s democratic processes.
I would argue that the fixed communal voting behaviour of Muslims is one of the major reasons for this lack of representation. There are several reasons why BJP has so few Muslim candidates and I have written on the subject in the past. The community’s anti-BJP voting strategy hasn’t worked, and the BJP is more focused on creating opportunities for Hindu OBC leaders rather than appointing Muslims. Based on the latest data, and my understanding of Indian politics, my thesis still stands.
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Powerless and without options
1. The Muslim strategy to vote en bloc to the most powerful party and candidate better placed to defeat or challenge the BJP didn’t work, especially in direct contests. This strategy has failed miserably in states such as Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is now able to get nearly 50 per cent of the votes.
In UP, the Muslim community, despite their numerical strength of almost 20 per cent, cannot stop the BJP from coming to power. The ruling party at the Centre has created a Hindu-Muslim binary, proving it can rule India without Muslim voters’ support. We don’t know for sure, but a Muslim consolidation might be resulting in a Hindu consolidation in the state.
2. The BJP has obviously not given tickets to more Muslims because very few in the community vote for the party. The BJP is a Hindutva party and only 7-8 per cent Muslims in UP voted for it in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, according to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. In 2024, there is only one Muslim candidate in the party’s list of 441 candidates— Abdul Salam, who is contesting the Malappuram seat in Kerala. The phenomenon of fixed Muslim voting has also forced the BJP to woo the Hindu SC, ST, and OBCs. The BJP can no longer remain just a Bania-Brahmin party and still rule the nation.
In fact, the party cannot antagonise the Hindu SC, ST, and OBCs due to its Virat Hindu identity project. Appointing an OBC Narendra Modi as Prime Minister and leaders like Kalyan Singh, Uma Bharti, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje, Mohan Yadav, and Raghubar Das as chief ministers are all part of this project.
3. Secular parties are not giving the Muslim community adequate representation because they know that Muslims have no other option but to vote for them. The only thing they need to do is position themselves as the most potent opposition to the BJP. Their electoral strategy is based on the belief that if they can secure the core vote of the party’s leader—such as the Yadav vote for the Samajwadi Party or the Rashtriya Janata Dal—along with the Muslim vote and the candidate’s caste vote, they can win. The BJP’s anti-Muslim politics have cornered the Muslim community, leaving them with little room to navigate ethnic politics. Secular parties are taking advantage of this.
4. The easily available Muslim vote has made secular parties complacent in courting Hindu votes, particularly those of the SC, ST, and OBC communities. This complacency has significantly reduced their chances of winning elections. In UP, a party that secures 10 per cent of its own votes and creates the impression that no other non-BJP party has similar support can theoretically gain an additional 19.3 per cent Muslim votes (based on the 2011 Census) simply by positioning itself as better able to defeat the BJP. With nearly 30 per cent of the votes, such a party would become at least the principal Opposition in the most electorally crucial state in India. While this wouldn’t be enough to defeat the BJP, it would ensure the party’s political survival.
5. The TMC has no option but to give a significant number of seats to Muslim candidates because the Left and the Congress together are a potent secular competitor for this vote bank. In this state, Muslims have the option of switching their support to a possible Left-Congress alliance. This makes the TMC vulnerable and forces it to ensure substantial representation for Muslims. In the process, TMC has to indulge in competitive appeasement of the community. This is why it introduced a form of Muslim quota in jobs, which has recently been struck down by the Calcutta High Court.
Muslims cannot prevent the BJP from securing power. There are only 15 Lok Sabha constituencies where Muslims comprise more than 50 per cent of the electorate, which makes them the deciding factor in these seats. The community has more than 20 per cent voters in additional 101 seats but in these seats, various social and religious combinations impact the election outcomes. It’s time for Indian Muslims to think as individuals and not as a group, especially when voting.
Dilip Mandal is the former managing editor of India Today Hindi Magazine, and has authored books on media and sociology. He tweets @Profdilipmandal. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)
Wrong conclusion by Mr Mandal. The BJP is winning because of Hindu-Muslim binary and you are asking Muslims to ignore that. Modi turned to tried and tested Muslim hate when the real issues created possible loss of votes. The problem is if a community feels that it does not have any stake or partnership and at receiving end, it creates problem for nation overall. No matter how developed we become, this will increase security cost for us and hence possibility of turning into police state (which we are almost now days. What you are doing is victim shaming. Sometimes Mr. Mandal seems to be hidden RSS pracharak.
Very nice articulation. Unfortunately, they are getting carried away with the false narrative of the secular parties who throw minuscule short term freebies while sweeping the whole benefits of power from them. Partly, this is also the result of lack of analytical strengths, again due to lack of education. They get carried away easily on to the negative side, not realizing how the gradual benefits of various schemes given by Central Government would benefit their lives and they can focus on next level development of their lives.s
The only soln is to get rid of Gandhi Family. Bring real leaders to the helm. Other wise INC will keep losing. Congress has become a corrupted loss making sarkari company.
Muslims are not going to change. They should get rid of their hate-worthy, feudal and radical practices, which they call their culture. They seem to make an Arab society in India. unlike Christians, Jains etc, and more like Sikhs. Sikhism Sect has originated out of Hindus mainly in reaction of Islamic dominance. That’s why Sikhs also practice very assertive culture. Muslims, and to lesser extent Sikhs, do not want to assimilate with Indian society. They are very conspicuous in asserting their sect. Since Sikhism was born in India and also endemic to India, they are not seen as outsiders or more of a threat, even though they also assert their sect very visibly. 95% of Muslims are racially Indian but they are not assimilating with the native culture. Until this sect consolidation remains and they don’t modernise they are very easy target of the BJP polarisation and Opposition appeasement. Social reform in Muslim society is long pending. None other than BR Ambedkar has greatly elaborated on this issue of Muslims. And nothing has changed much since him. And that too was foreseen by him.
I truly empathise with Muslims and don’t like them to be vilified but they need big social reforms. The intellectual or elite Muslims are only reactionary in terms of their response to BJP hate mongering. These elites must turn inwards and do something for Muslims. Muslims villification is not just limited to India, it is growing in Europe, US, China, Africa etc. And unlike a decade ago, it’s not just limited to branding them as terrorists but now it is more social and cultural. Muslims need to introspect. They are branded as a follower of an intolerant religion, which, according to me, has some truth.