The closure of the Afghanistan embassy in New Delhi comes at a time when significant changes are occurring in the region surrounding the Indian Ocean and the Indian part of the Indo-Pacific. The successful G20 summit, India’s acclaim from member countries, and the unanimous acceptance of the Delhi Declaration may have unsettled certain forces that are opposed to India’s growth and influence.
Afghanistan-Pakistan relations are at the lowest ebb as Islamabad increasingly believes that Taliban-controlled Kabul is not doing enough to reign in the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Following a TTP attack on Pakistani forces in Chitral and alleged land grab by the Afghan army, both armies exchanged fire at the Torkham border, a key transit point for essential supplies. Although the border was closed for two weeks, it reopened after ceasefire talks. However, Islamabad remains upset with Kabul’s response to the TTP issue.
In retaliation, Islamabad has decided to repatriate up to a million Afghan refugees to Afghanistan, giving them barely a week’s time to pack up and leave. Unconfirmed reports suggest that there are more than four lakh Afghan refugees in Pakistan, with an additional seven lakh lacking valid documents. Most of these refugees fled Afghanistan following the US withdrawal and the Taliban takeover of Kabul.
It remains doubtful whether Kabul can accommodate all these returning refugees. Many of the male refugees may end up becoming mercenaries for the TTP, while others may join various warring groups in the north. The Taliban themselves are in no position to provide shelter or ration for these refugees.
Also read: ‘Lack of support from host govt’ — Afghan embassy’s 3 main reasons for shutting down operations
Beijing’s Kabul connect
The immediate fallout of a surge in armed groups will affect Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and China. Among these countries, China and Pakistan have more reasons to be worried. China is particularly keen on ensuring that Kabul can keep these potentially trigger-happy mercenaries in check, as they may join forces with the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), believed to have bases in Afghanistan. A collaboration between ETIM fighters and Uyghur rebels would prove to be a disaster for Beijing’s Silk Road and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects.
Beijing needs the cooperation of Pakistan, especially its military, for road access to Afghanistan. Therefore, it’s not surprising that Zhao Xing, the Grand Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to Afghanistan, has called on Pakistan not to send back Afghan refugees. “Pakistan’s wrongful treatment of Afghan refugees is against human rights and good neighborliness,” he posted on X. It’s ironic that China, with one of the worst human rights records in Tibet and Xinjiang, is ‘worried’ about the human rights of Afghan refugees.
Beijing has always kept a close watch on Kabul, especially after the Soviet Union’s withdrawal in February 1989 following a decade of military engagement with Kabul through its trusted lieutenant Mohammad Najibullah. After the Soviet exit and its subsequent disintegration, Beijing began looking for opportunities to get close to Kabul, though it refrained from recognising Taliban until their rapid ascent to power in 2021 after the abrupt US withdrawal. Even before the Taliban’s complete control of Kabul, then-Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with a high-level Taliban delegation led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, praising the Taliban as “a pivotal military and political force in Afghanistan,” thereby granting them legitimacy.
Colonialism doesn’t last for long
Given the ongoing conflicts between Afghanistan and Pakistan and China’s engagement with Afghanistan, it’s not surprising if both Beijing and Islamabad feel threatened by India’s efforts to improve relations and connectivity with Afghanistan. India is already competing with China in infrastructure projects in Iran, which provide links to Afghanistan. With the US-China power struggle at its peak and the India-US strategic cooperation at its best, Beijing has every reason to keep Kabul away from New Delhi. However, Beijing should flip through the pages of history and learn that neither military force nor coercion will keep Afghanistan glued to it for long.
The British troops left Afghanistan in 1842 after a terrible war, which inflicted huge loss of life on the British side. The French military left Algeria in 1962 followed by a horrible massacre of thousands of pro-France Algerians at the hands of local rebels. From 1969 to 1973, US troops engaged with Vietnam and then withdrew after a crushing defeat and disgraceful loss of face. The Soviet Union had to withdraw its army from Afghanistan in 1989 after realising the futility of controlling Kabul through proxies and external military support. The US pumped in $2.3 trillion and lost about 6,000 soldiers in two decades before quitting Kabul hurriedly, not caring to even pick up some of its costly military hardware. No superpower, strong power, or foreign military has ever been successful in keeping another country under its stranglehold for long.
The colonial model of infrastructure development and empowerment of local leadership worked to some extent but not for long, as evidenced by the end of colonial rule in many parts of the world in the last century. India refused to deploy its military in Afghanistan at the behest of foreign powers to satiate their resource greed and hegemonic ambitions.
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India should maintain its focus
Unlike the West and the former Soviet Union, India focuses on providing developmental assistance and capacity-building for local administration and institutions in Afghanistan. Aside from constructing hospitals and training Afghan police, India sent five consignments of 50 lakh doses of Covid-19 vaccines and essential medicines, in addition to providing $26.5 million in budgetary assistance for the Afghan people.
New Delhi has been actively engaged in discussion related to Afghanistan within G20 and other diplomatic forums. Prime Minister Narendra Modi participated in the ‘Extraordinary Leaders’ Meeting on Afghanistan’ in October 2021, to address the looming humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. A month later, National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval hosted the “Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan”, which was attended by Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Modi held the first India-Central Asia summit on 27 January 2022, initiating a joint working group to provide emergency humanitarian aid.
In this context, it would be in the best interest of both New Delhi and Kabul to maintain a minimal staff presence in their respective embassies, continue economic assistance projects, facilitate travel for medical emergencies and students, and allow bilateral trade. India remains firm in not recognising the Taliban and granting them legitimacy. However, considering India’s strategic and security agenda, the importance of the Taliban in the current circumstances and their relevance is not lost on New Delhi.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)