Chinese President Xi Jinping seems ready to take on the US. The proposed draft of an economic and military agreement with Iran lays out Beijing’s plan to expand its footprint in the Middle East, just like it has done in South Asia. Incidentally, China looks keen to occupy areas that the US is either vacating or where it has shown diminished interest. But this expansion may have its own complications due to the inherent tensions and competitive nature of regional players.
For India, though, the immediate concern would be the expectation in Islamabad that China will help iron out the bilateral differences between Iran and Pakistan. There is certainly a view that China will ensure greater distance between Delhi and Tehran. However, it’s worth reiterating that a lot will depend on China’s capacity to intervene in regional and domestic issues, and steer its Belt and Road (BRI) project clear of conflicts that it is not a part of or has no experience to handle. The economic competition within the BRI could also exacerbate internal tensions that various players have not thus far considered.
The geo-political ambitions
The China-Iran agreement, unlike the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), includes conversations about shared geo-political ambitions such as joint investment in Iraq and Syria. This indicates both Iran’s ambitions and China’s willingness to bankroll or simply use Tehran’s expertise in the Middle East from where the US seems to be cautiously withdrawing. But then Tehran may be expected to harness some of its ambitions, especially regarding Isreal with whom Beijing has independent relations. If China believes that its money can rid the Middle East of its historic biases and differences, it may be dreaming of another planet.
There are also plans to establish joint defence research and development, and production ventures — a partnership similar to what Beijing has with Islamabad. In fact, there is talk of building relations between strategic communities of China and Iran. This could mean China actively trying to retrain Iranian mind — weaning it away from the West to the East. It will also mean re-shaping the strategic community, like it’s been done in Pakistan, to quell any alternative ideas and parrot a linear narrative suited only to the governments in Tehran and Beijing. It is noteworthy that a strict disciplining of the security discourse in Pakistan, which has an older defence relationship with China, began much later after initiation of CPEC which is a new economic-strategic linkage. The Iranian plan, on the other hand, is drawn out to be more geo-politically intense.
The proposed $400 billion investment plan in Iran, spread over 25 years, will allow China to tap into Iran’s oil and gas resources in return for cooperation in the field of defence, information technology, agriculture, industry, tourism and telecom.
Also read: With India-US badly coordinated in Indian Ocean, China-Iran naval ties now a fresh concern
The CPEC parallels
Similar to the CPEC deal, which was signed in 2016, there appears to be a plan to develop communication infrastructure, linking Iran with Central Asia and creating linkages that will then be accessible to Beijing. The draft agreement is more of a vision statement spread over 18 pages rather than a detailed roadmap that one can see in the 234-page-long CPEC execution plan. The common element between the two plans is secrecy and lack of transparency. Little was known about the CPEC’s terms of business and loans given by China to the Pakistani government. Much of the details on CPEC are still not known.
Furthermore, in Pakistan’s case, the Imran Khan government seems willing to get approval for a supra-powerful CPEC Authority, headed by Lt. Gen. (retd) Asim Saleem Bajwa. The draft proposal stipulates the creation of an extremely centralised body that will have the authority to procure land and pass it on to the Chinese, be free from reprimand of the country’s judiciary, its decisions will not be challanged, and have a highly secretive structure in which even outsiders could be punished for sharing CPEC-related information with anyone, the same way as people working inside. The Authority definitely looks more like a military rather than a civilian or business-oriented institution.
The proposed formation of the CPEC Authority may not be on China’s insistence but it certainly signals Beijing that the CPEC will continue irrespective of any change in Pakistan’s political landscape. Governments may come and go but the bilateral cooperation would continue. Beijing does tend to get irritated with domestic political squabbling in partner states, resulting in slowdown of the initiative, which is what happened with the CPEC. An approximately $60 billion investment plan slowed down to about $26 billion due to disagreement between different sectors of the state and between the old and new governments regarding the direction of the CPEC. An Iran eager to find a market for its oil and gas, and hungry for investment may consider a similarly centralised formula. It would definitely, as in Pakistan’s case, set up a force for physical security of Chinese investment. The grapevine is already talking about China deploying some 5,000 troops inside Iran for security of the projects. Pakistan, in fact, secured itself from Chinese pressure by establishing a 10,000-strong personnel force. Beijing, as sources say, was keen to use its own security force to secure the projects.
Both in the case of CPEC and the prospective Iran agreement, China has used its deep pockets to seek out partnership with countries troubled with financial issues and a bleak economic future. The diminishing price of oil and American sanctions clearly leave little option for Iran but to move towards China. The dire conditions exacerbated further due to Covid-19, when procuring PPEs became a major challenge for Tehran due to restrictions imposed on it.
Also read: ‘He’ll be okay’ — An unsympathetic Trump said about Modi after Iran oil sanctions
For China, political engagement needed too
Notwithstanding that the Iran agreement gives a broader geo-political roadmap as well, However, China is considered as more ‘independent’ because of its policy of minimal intervention, like in Pakistan’s case where Beijing did not really interfere with Islamabad’s dealings with the Taliban unless it impinged upon China’s security interests. A similar formula may be applied to the Middle East. In any case, China’s footprints in the Middle East are likely to increase due to America’s receding interest, or lack of willingness to finance and support or take position on internal conflicts.
One of the issues, however, is that no matter how hard China tries, it cannot maintain economic objectivity of its regional plans without building its own capacity to engage in these territories politically. The investment of $400 billion in Iran is also dependent upon the country’s absorption capacity, which, in turn, is linked with deep political issues. One of the reasons that the CPEC slowed down was due to Pakistan’s domestic capacity.
Some segments of the security community in Pakistan have demonstrated excitement over the Iran-China agreement, which is caused by the understanding that it would allow Beijing to pull Tehran away from its agreement with India over Chabahar. There is also hope for improved relations between Tehran and Islamabad, considering that both Muslim states are now part of the BRI roadmap. Pakistani commentators talk about the BRI purely as a grand economic initiative and not in terms of China’s broader geo-political and geo-strategic ambitions. One hears a constant reference to China’s magnanimity. Despite such rhetoric, one hopes that Islamabad is looking at the relationship cautiously. The small study group created by Prime Minister Imran Khan’s special assistant on national security to analyse relations with Iran could start from reading Alex Vatanka’s book Iran and Pakistan Security Diplomacy and American Influence.
Also read: If India is losing Iran, Tehran too is responsible for dip in ties
Beijing’s balancing act: Iran and Pakistan
The parallel stakes in Central Asia and Afghanistan may require Beijing to undertake a more intense planning. Vatanka’s book draws out the historic underlying competition between Iran and Pakistan that has echoes throughout the course of bilateral ties between the two countries. In this respect, China may have to prepare itself for separate conversations that the Americans were privy to, especially until the end of the Iranian monarchy in 1979. Vatanka highlights archival material from the US and Iran about the tension that existed regarding both Tehran and Islamabad, vying for establishing themselves as a more critical power. In 1976, for instance, there was resentment expressed in Islamabad “of Iranian good fortune….Iranian arrogance, ultimately personified in the Shah himself.” Bhutto’s backbiting to the Americans reached the Shah of Iran’s ears resulting in troubled relations. This could repeat itself as both states will compete for China’s attention.
Post-Iranian revolution there was more tension between Islamic Iran and Zia-ul-Haq’s Pakistan over difference of opinion regarding Islamabad’s support to America, help to Taliban and the fact that Tehran acquired responsibility for security of embattled Shias in Pakistan. Though Islamabad, in the last couple of years, seems to have struggled with controlling sectarian violence, the Shia-Sunni divide has grown serious. It could flare up if, for instance, Shia clergy and population in general seriously start disagreeing with Punjab assembly’s Tahaffuz Bunyad-e-Islam Bill. It was not too long ago that tension over Iran’s relations with India turned into a spat between Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani and the Pakistan Army.
Beijing is moving closer to Tehran even as the world is busy dealing with the scourge of the coronavirus pandemic. China beholds the ambition to dominate areas from where the US is making an exit, but Xi Jinping would do well to remember that as far as Iran is concerned, Pakistan stands on the other side of the corridor.
Ayesha Siddiqa is research associate at SOAS, London and author of Military Inc. She tweets @iamthedrifter. Views are personal.
The Indian perspective on this development should not be so much as to drive a rift between the three parties coming together, Iran, Pakistan and China, but to examine how, over the years, India, the second biggest country in the world, slowly but steadily turned itself irrelevant even in its own neighborhood. Iran definitely does not forgive India for having promised so much of friendship for so many years and then, having suddenly abandoned them under President Trump’s foolish moves. There is not one single country left in the world, not even Bhutan, that considers itself a strong ally and friend of India. But Modijee and his Hinduxttva coterie move around in India as if everything is honky dory for India around the world even as they, over so many years of their uncontested rule, have done nothing to help India rid itself of the scourge and indignity of being the most impoverished country in the world.
There is no gain for Pakistan in China – Iran pact. Pakistan lives in the valley of the blind, where one eyed is the king. Now we know, If there were to be a World War III, we now know that the Axis will consist of China, Iran, Pakistan and North Korea.
Pakistan Army is a smart force and knows who lays the golden eggs for them. Earlier it was USA and now it is China. CPEC is a perfect venture for this purpose as Chinese will invest massive amount but the assets will be in Pakistan. In due course, these assets will turn uneconomic and even if Chinese take full ownership, they will not be able to run them as no one will pay for the electricity they produce or toll tax or whatever! In effect, they will have to leave them as they are and wind up. But the Pak Army will make massive gains in the intervening years as bribes and later for security provision etc. Iran China deal will further raise importance of Pakistan as the transit corridor will be through Pakistan and it can turn on and off the terror tap as it desires and make Chinese cringe before them, just as Americans did in 1990s and 2000s!
I hope that the equivalents of Indian sickular types (read – as also anti-nationals) in Pakistan ( like Ayesha) do not spoil the game for the Pak Army!!!!
According to an article by Noel Sharkey Professor Emeritus of AI and Robotics at Sheffield University published in February 2020 issue of Scientific American “China Electronic Technology Group in a move that reveals the country’s intentions, has.. tested a group of 200 fixed-wing drones , as well as 56 small drone ships for attacking enemy warships”. Prof.Sharkey is referring to autonomous weapons. This may be China’s response to the threat from QUAD in the straits of Malacca but it is not impossible that the drones used by Houthi Rebels to such devastating effect might have been aided by Chinese technology. The effect of such warfare coming into the subcontinent is unpredictable and unimaginable. It has been rightly said that fools step in where angels fear to tread.
Well I think time has come where we should move on from so called geo-political strategy in these central Asian countries Pakistan Iran or Iraq these were important few decade back when everyone wanted to ensure their energy need, those need may appear needed for another 50 years but over emphasize and rely on these countries gone. Today Russia, U.S. or Venezuela they are lined up to buy their oil and gas. If these country happy to engage with China at cost of others let them so be it.
India should focus more on countries and be partner with the one have a great culture innovation, and thinking for future such U.S. Japan, South Korea, Germany, France and many more EU & Latin american and African market and emerging destination that are on development path or even UAE and Saudi Arabia because these two countries have money who can invest in India.
India will be used and thrown away once the time is right. Do you realize the “great American friendship with China” started with Mao, the worst of the communist dictator the world had seen, just as a way to put URSS on check, once China grows too much, China is the enemy and must be cut down to size.
India with 5 times the population of US will never be allowed to reach even a 15% of the income per capita enjoyed by US or Europe, as once it does, it will be the new thread. Kashmir will be the new Xinjiang. Pakistan and Bangladesh the new Philippines and Vietnam. Bhutan and Nepal will be the new Laos and Cambodia. And Sri Lanka, the new Taiwan.
China is itself pushing India towards US, the thing is China also considers India as a threat, we don’t have any other option