India’s largest, most acrimonious elections are about to get into their final phase. Most people might have expected that voters would be presented these past few weeks with a record of the Narendra Modi government’s term in office, what it promises for the future, and the alternatives that the opposition offers. The campaign did indeed begin that way, with the BJP’s slogan of “The impossible is now possible” (Namumkin ab mumkin hai), Rahul Gandhi’s NYAY hand-out scheme, and arguments about the relative advantages and disadvantages of strong governments and coalition rule.
It turns out though that few have heard of NYAY, while opposition coalescence is very partial. In turn, the BJP discovered that its development record was not evocative enough and, using the Pulwama-Balakot strike-counterstrike, switched focus to national security. That’s when reality and campaign rhetoric began their divergence.
Modi’s uncanny ability to turn liability into asset was now in evidence. The chowkidar’s failure to act on intelligence warnings about a terrorist strike against army convoys, the embarrassment of having a fighter plane shot down and (worse) a helicopter brought down by own-side fire, the discovery that Pakistan’s air force, with a fraction of the Indian Air Force’s budget, can deploy better planes and better missiles and has more secure communications links — all this uncomfortable realisation was buried under a full-throated campaign that focused on two high points: The Balakot strike and getting Masood Azhar declared a terrorist. The Congress’ belated bleats that its own track record had surgical strikes and other successes to show were, as usual, pusillanimous.
The national security debate took another curious turn, as though the country is in danger of being broken up by the “tukde-tukde gang” of seditionists. Nationalists should have greater confidence in their country’s strengths. If indeed there is danger, what of government strategy? The escalating levels of violence in both Naxal-infested areas and Jammu & Kashmir point to policy failure. And China’s security challenge gets no mention even as Beijing’s tentacles reach into India’s neighbourhood.
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Now we have descended to the level of farce, with the campaign veering off into accusations against a prime minister dead for more than a quarter century, and before that, the actions of another prime minister dead for more than a half century. Whatever the sins of commission and omission of Nehru and Rajiv Gandhi, are they election issues in 2019? Or are these deliberately escapist diversions?
Note that the economy has been given a convenient by-pass by the BJP, except for the frequent assertion that no development took place for 70 years till Modi came along. The Congress, in its usual ineffective way, points to slowing growth, flat exports and declining investment, and new revelations about statistical fiction. More has been said on the stump about jobs and rural distress, but Modi is yet to respond.
How much of this matters to the voter? In partisan politics, people choose facts to suit bias or belief, more so when there is identification with a strong leader. For millions of voters, Modi’s record may not be the best, but he remains the best bet. Or, they have bought into his Hindutva nationalism. Meanwhile, Modi demonstrated yet again his ability to turn the tables on his critics by switching around the charge of tasteless criticism, and listing the multiple terms of abuse hurled at him over the years. Rahul Gandhi’s “love dictionary”, he called it with typical panache.
If anything has become clear during this campaign, it is this: Modi can bat on almost any wicket and hit the ball over the ropes. He will do it with a selective use of facts, play on emotion, and tropes about naamdars and kaamdars. Should he lose his party’s majority, as the pollsters say, or (more drastically) the chance to govern further, it will be less because of the opposition and more on his own account and because, despite an assiduous image build-up over five years, aggressive social media trolling and impressive histrionics on the stump, voters in the heartland prove to be disappointed with what he has delivered.
By Special Arrangement with Business Standard
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Interesting to see that even the veteran journalist like Ninan stands confused and undecided. The sum total of his argument seems to be – ‘Modi is bad, but the opposition is even worse’. This is today’s reality. India’s voters are faced with Devil’s Alternative. As the country seeks a new balance in its polity, the experts stand divided and confused. Today, voting in the sixth phase has commenced and now only one phase remains. This has been an unprecedented virulent election campaign, but the blame for the same cannot rest on Modi alone. The Opposition initiated ‘Hate Modi’ campaign by saying ‘ Chowkidar Chor Hai’ and has now been paid back in the same token. If Modi is to be replaced, where are the alternatives? Rahul Gandhi, the Pappu, who is unable to understand a simple Supreme Court verdict and lands himself in a hopeless tangle? Even if one deletes the Modi factor, the rest of the polity is hopelessly fractured. So, how would the nation decide? The future of the country finally rests on the wisdom of our voters. Are we heading towards political anarchy and instability or do we choose the inevitable continuance? We would come to know soon.
What Mr. Ninan misses is this. It is Modi and company who are projecting the Congress as the opposition to the BJP. But in fact there are so many regional parties in the fray who are going to impact the outcomes.
True facts
Securing a second term is always the incumbent’s task and duty. 2019 is a referendum on the five years since 2014, not on Shri Rahul Gandhi. 2. Reading the IE stories on PM Rajiv Gandhi’s Lakshwadeep vacation – which do not show him in a good light, as the leader of a poor country – the thought struck me how free and critical the media was while reporting on the government. Some of the failures / shortcomings / underperformance the column lists find virtually no traction in the media. If the opposition too does not get proportionate coverage, the impression can gain ground that it is effete, ineffectual, not measuring up. A comforting echo chamber in a sense. Perhaps voters are less enchanted than the cloying / fawning anchors lead us to believe.
Unfortunately at the end of 5 years, Modi has exposed himself more as a mediocre politician than a reformer with good intentions. He will not only be responsible for his own loss, but also for the resurrection of the Gandhi family that he loathes so much. However, those who are opposed to the idea of dynasty may still vote for BJP because of him.
Des dunia ko batna tha, vastavikta se kya lena Dena? Hindu, Muslim, Pakistan, Nehru, indira, Rajeev, Rahul, Priyanka, Jersey gai he to mudde he, Modi says 70 saal me kuch nahi kia, ab mere se kya karwana chahte ho?
Caro, hawaijahaj, foreign Ka majja to aaya, ab Gujarat model ki baat mat Karo.
Yaaro galli, thothi karne Ka majja aagaya.
Mark my words Ninan, BJP 281, NDA 60, INC 50, UPA 61, Others the balance. We will review the article once the results are out. All polsters prior to elections will be proven wrong. It will only go to show how the issues identified by Modi reverberate with the masses, and no issue can be buried deep, even if they have seem quarter century
Why you are giving 50 seats to inc ? IN 18-20 states and UTs it will get 0 zero seats.
MODI HAS SHOWN TO PEOPLE THAT HE ONLY WILL SAVE INDIA FROM COLONIAL RULE
In 2014 al pollsters declared Congress as winner but it got 44 seats .In 2017 UP poll all pollsters declared SP Congress winner but BJP got 3/4 majority.Stll they shows BJP down under.
and It is a good omen for BJ as theyw ill never be over confident and lethargic.
BJP will win 300+ and nDA 400+ seats note that and talk on 23rd May