In just a matter of a fortnight, India’s national security strategy and foreign policy has taken a 180-degree turn with respect to its two belligerent neighbours — China and Pakistan. The beginning of the disengagement process on 10 February marked a thaw in the 11-month-long crisis in eastern Ladakh while on 25 February, a joint statement by the Indian and Pakistan militaries resuscitated the “informal” 2003 ceasefire along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir and western Ladakh. Both benchmark decisions are merely the first step in a process that will test Indian diplomacy and understanding of strategic and military affairs.
There are articles galore about the compulsions of Pakistan and China to join the peacemaking process but hardly any on the about-turn by India. What were the reasons for the Narendra Modi government to change its ideology-driven approach towards national security? And what is the way forward?
Failed national security strategy
In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government inherited relative peace along the Line of Control (LoC) and Line of Actual Control (LAC). Concerted efforts by the Indian Army, 12 years of rule of elected governments and relative peace with Pakistan had contained the insurgency and reduced the number of terrorists to double figures. There were ceasefire violations, including some incidents of beheading/mutilation of soldier’s bodies, but the violence along the LoC remained within manageable limits. Despite the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack, the Indian government had exercised restraint. On the LAC, barring the 2013 Depsang Plains incident, peace had generally been maintained based on the series of agreements signed since 1993.
India’s territorial integrity and recovering the territories usurped by Pakistan and China are part of the BJP’s core ideology even though the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)’s goal of Akhand Bharat was kept out of government policy. Aggressive policy stance against external and internal enemies was an essential part of the BJP’s election strategy that paid rich dividends. After its initial peace overtures from a perceived position of strength, including a surprise visit by PM Modi to Lahore in December 2015, were neutralised by the Pakistan Army and the terrorists, the Indian government shut the door on Pakistan. ‘Terror and talks cannot go together’ became the norm.
Even domestically, in J&K, the government followed a hard policy without a clear political strategy to win the hearts and minds of Kashmiris despite coalescing to form a government with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Insurgency revived in J&K and the Modi government responded to major acts of terrorism in Uri (2016) and Pulwama (2019) with cross-border surgical strikes and trans-International Boundary air strikes. Rather than deter Pakistan, these actions exposed the limitations of the use of force without a clear edge in military capability.
With respect to China, the BJP adopted a policy of promoting peace through economic cooperation. Much time was spent on the personal equation of Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping, including a couple of one-on-one informal summits. Simultaneously, the Modi government gave impetus to developing border infrastructure and made no secrets of its strategic ambition to recover Aksai Chin. Chinese transgressions into Bhutan were contested aggressively, pushing the two countries to the brink of war in Doklam. Wrong lessons were drawn from perceived and propagated Chinese withdrawal. ‘Stare China down’ became the norm along the LAC. This resulted in the crisis in eastern Ladakh, further exposing our flawed national security strategy.
Also read: The LAC disengagement will ultimately lead to China giving up claims in northeast
Fundamentals of security strategy violated
India does not have a formal national security strategy. The National Security Adviser (NSA), who is credited to be the brain behind all strategic and even tactical military actions, has failed to evolve one despite being the head of the Defence Planning Committee since 2018. No strategic review has been carried out and little has been done to reform and modernise the armed forces. A tanked economy has further compounded the problem. Thus, a functional simultaneous hard strategy without adequate military capability against China (a superior power) and Pakistan (a weaker power but with adequate military potential to bring about a stalemate), was bound to fail.
The following fundamentals were violated:
- National security strategy is based on comprehensive national power, particularly the economic and military component. The huge differential of comprehensive national power with China demanded reliance on diplomacy until we catch up to a level to contest it. Pakistan has a similar compulsion vis-a-vis India.
- Nuclear weapon-armed states cannot fight decisive war and certainly cannot change maps. This alone safeguards us against China, and Pakistan against us, unless there is a security lapse that allows preemption. Thus, the thundering rhetoric by Union Home Minister Amit Shah and other BJP leaders to recover lost territories was nothing more than an empty threat.
- To force compellence below the nuclear threshold, a nation requires a clear technological military edge for coercive actions or a limited war. China has this edge over us but we do not have it against Pakistan. Even with a decisive edge, the apprehension of a setback, particularly when the weaker state has adequate military power to force a stalemate, prevents escalation beyond a point. This lesson was driven home to China in eastern Ladakh and to India post the surgical and Balakot air strikes.
- In the current international environment, Pakistan’s state-sponsored proxy war has run its course. It is reeling under the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) sanctions and severe International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditions. Hence, it is prudent for India to put its own house in order in J&K rather than focus on retribution against Pakistan, which offers diminishing returns.
- The geography of J&K and Ladakh, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passing through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir/Gilgit-Baltistan, and China-Pakistan alliance makes the unsettled borders a trilateral issue, imposing a two-front conflict situation on India. Two-front conflicts are not winnable. It is prudent to pursue peace with a relatively weaker adversary, such as Pakistan. China faces the same situation with India in view of its primary focus being Taiwan and South China Sea.
- Not carrying out an ethical assessment of one’s own military capability before pursuing an aggressive national security policy is the biggest failure of the Modi government. The military hierarchy, carried away by political rhetoric and in awe of the persona of PM Modi, failed to give correct advice. India simply did not have the military capability to match the government’s aggressive political aims.
- Aggressive exploitation of national security policy for domestic politics and to whip up nationalism vitiates the relationship with your adversaries, leading to conflict situations. It also makes national security bounden to extreme nationalism, placing severe limitations on decision-making.
Also read: Indian tourists can keep the Chinese away from LAC. Govt must open borders
The way forward
There should be no doubt that the flawed national security strategy pursued by India over the last seven years requires a course correction. Wisely, the Modi government seems to have decided to do so. Nothing confirms it more than the sudden absence of anti-Pakistan/China political rhetoric, drumbeating by a pliant media, and politically inspired social media campaign. It is heartening to note that, overnight, the image of PM Modi has changed from a strong leader aggressively pursuing ideology-driven belligerent national security strategy to a statesman seeking lasting peace. This is the avatar India needs, to gain time to enhance its comprehensive national power to become a great power.
There is no point in harping on deficit of trust with the two adversaries. A cursory look at their media indicates their lack of trust in us. The first step to bring about peace and tranquility along the LoC/LAC has been taken. The next step is to sustain the momentum despite out-of-control actions that can spoil it, such as those by terrorists. Thereafter, relentlessly pursue diplomacy to find long-term solutions.
The three players — India, China, and Pakistan — understand that maps cannot be redrawn, and that direct use of force and proxy wars have limits and offer diminishing returns. In my view, all three are prepared for a negotiated settlement to convert the existing borders into boundaries. With Pakistan, we have the aborted Musharraf-Vajpayee/Manmohan Singh four-point formula available, which can be modified to accommodate sovereignty issues. Having secured the 1959 Claim Line albeit with buffer zones, China will be amenable to a final settlement and give up its claims in other sectors.
Prime Minister Modi has the mandate, popularity and political skills to bring about lasting peace with Pakistan and China. India needs peace and time to uplift its economy and modernise its military to become a great power. This should be his legacy goal and this is what will truly make him a great leader.
Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.
“ It is reeling under the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) sanctions”
There are a total of zero sanctions imposed against Pakistan by FATF. Iceland is also on the gray list. Until recently, Sri Lanka and Indonesia were too.
As per the author, India is a failed state, and MODI should give up POK & Aksai Chin and Join CPEC.
He thinks Terming GOI policy a failed policy is going to make him famous. I would say let the Public decide.
Most of the comments are against the author not the thoughts penned by him which are based on the reality as we all have seen unfolding. I have not read all but the tone seems to be that this author is writing against Modi government. Sad, the writers of such comments have overlooked the the author’s praise for the government’s latest sagacious move to be driven by not ideology but realities. I truly appreciate Mr Modi’s latest outreach with Pakistan and the peace effort. Domestic compulsions and rhetoric have been kept aside in favour of strategic wisdom by Mr Modi and Mr Doval.
The failed National security policy of the BJP got China and Pakistan on the negotiation table that the successful UPA National security Policies emboldened China to enroach on Indian territory and caused rentless Pakistani terrorist on India?? The author need to have his head examined
Really
Panag past and his present thinking is reflected in his family especially in her daughter Gul Panag. I won’t say he is anti India but sure must have reasons to write these kind of misleading arrivals . Print is serving cross border interest that is well known. I wish Govt. Of India, taje nite of this.
YOU joined the indomitable Indian Army & rose to be a General to maintain STATUS QUO MR PANAG ????? How shameful, if that was the case….There is enemy in Your bedroom and YOU talk of maintaining Status quo…??? At what cost….??? Am sure that cost is a lot more than what YOU & ur ilk are getting for writing such trash.
You talk of uplifting the economy. How ignorant are U to forget that an economy which was declared one of the Fragile5, at around 2 Trillion US$ in 2014, was elevated to the 5th largest economy at 3 Trillion USD in 2019. Rome was not built in a day General….if u wd care to recall…
U also conclude with the need to modernise the Military. How insensitive a comment is that Mr Panag ??? Do U not give anyyy credit to the present Govt under the leadership of Mr Modi for ALL the gaps they hv already filled in Military hardware space, with all 3 services FINALLY getting what they had been crying for, for ages. Ur absolute disdain projected thro ur writing forces me to think as to How ungrateful can one be???
Sad commentary General.
Only if U had not let YOUR biases do the talking instead of ur 4 decades of Military association & a slight thought for all the Brethren we lost thus far due to Status quo aspiring Generals like YOU.
Dear Good for nothing General, these skewed and absolutely rudderless incoherent views betray our faith in the capability of army top brass. With guys like you at the top of the ladder, I shudder to think of the leadership you have nurtured. You are just a low grade politician. Nothing more.
+1
I am amazed by the non-sense so-called General has written. R u nuts?
Gosh, this fellow was a general in IA. Don’t know how many such are still serving.
You are biased against this govt and the same is reflected in your report. Proper analysis not done. Govt and MEA are working hard to protect our borders and national security.
correct.
Gen Parag goes too far and being unfair in saying that “India has no national security policy.” That’s plainly wrong. Since PM Modi assumed office India has pursued a clear-eyed strategy of beating down Pakistan whether it was on the LOC or the Balakot strike or FATF; it has also accelerated border roads construction on the LAC. Yes we were caught off guard in April 2020 in Ladakh; yes some of the ministers shot off their mouths with empty threats to take back Aksai Chin; and yes military capability build up has not made required progress. The reason for that is as much the lethargy in the MOD as it is the lack of competence among the higher echelons of the armed forces and the DRDO.
Balakot strikes missed their target. Only India and a few sycophantic pro-India figures dispute this. If anything, the strike showed the limits of Indian power, not the depth of Indian power.
Lol. Panag is senile, and this rag will publish anything that embarrasses the nation.
Absolutely Rubbish.
Are you sick Mr Publisher or simply out of your mind ?
There seems to be no coherence in the comments. How can you say that period was calm before the current government. There could have been some miscalculations by the present government but overall its policies have brought both Pakistan and China to come to table, without compromising on National Security. The principles you mention that have been ignored or violated have actually been followed. It seems that you feel less your time at the helm of affairs in Kashmir rest all just fools.
Very poor analysis! Seems like the General has a Axe to grind with the government. If he thinks that staring down China and strikes in Pakistan haven’t worked then he doesn’t deserve to write or be an “analyst” for the Print. Please be objective sir!
he is frustrated AAP political member n loser … he was promoted by congres n MMSingh n thinks he did not get his dues as he was not made the army chief …he keeps ranting nonsense like the other rajeev tyagi …of ex IAf these pigs need to be probed as the bark n may reveal hidden secrets about the indian armed forces … this moron cannot digest the fact that modi n indian army killed 45 chinese in retaliation to 20 indians killed …this panag whose daughters is also AAP n actress n sheds clothers when she gets more money onscreen need to be probed wisely ..
,??
Agree. His antipathy towards the present government seems to cloud his judgement. There are sound reasons why the age of superannuation is set in stone.
Dear Khalistani.Plz clam down.Imagine!What type of General was served in our Army.
Peace from wolfs. How you expect such thing? They beheaded, tortured, many of our soldiers. Are you not aware about their anti national activities they had done in our country in last seven centuries?
Just wondering how THE PRINT selected this write-up for publishing. It is just one sided, baseless, wrongly intrepretated and favouring anti indian though process.
This man is a known anti-Modi fella. Nothing more needs to be said about this character after that.
I think the writer is being sponsored by across border hostiles and or their sympathizing Political Parties here.
Sir,
You have freedom to say what ever, but every dynamic situation needs constant monitoring and change. e.g. law is changed from time to time does it mean first law was stupid? Our constitution of India is changed over 100 times in less than 70 so what should be told about our original constitution by your logic.
A very biased article. I think the author was paid for this fake article.
It is common sense that now India is able to negotiate from a point of strength.
Now India has a strengthened se urity scenario.
The print has proved itself to be a cheap journal once again.
Mr. Panag became a member of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in January 2014 after retiring from the Armed Forces Tribunal. He campaigned for his actress daughter, Gul Panag in the 2014 Lok Sabha election in Chandigarh which she lost to another actress Kiran Kher.
He should desist from vaguely criticising the excellent work done by our internal security team. As a political person, he is misusing the honours conferred on him as a retired member of India’s defence forces.
I disagree with Panag Sahb when he says that our strategy was flawed. To me, what PM Modi and NSA Doval are doing is fantastic. Through a well thought out strategy, they have shown the world that “The tiger has roared to let everyone else know that he is the king in this part of the jungle (so beautifully pointed out in the series ‘Avarodh’).” For all these years, we would be bullied by China on its own power and Pakistan due to covert support from the Western powers and overt help from China. Modi and Doval changed all that, first with China at Doklam, then with Pakistan through Uri and Balakot. And now we’ve shown China again in Ladakh that we’re no pushovers. With all this we showed the World that we can stand up to bullies in the neighbourhood even if western nations are not entirely with us. We are now negotiating peace with the bullies on OUR TERMS, not theirs or anyone else’s!!
Cannot believe that this article is by a retired Lt. General. The arguments forwarded by retd. Lt. General Panag are so weak, untenable and absurd that it seems to have been written by a novice. How else can we interpret his statement that BJP government inherited an LOC with relative peace. For the retd Lt General, all the frequent blasts in public places across India does not account for violence and only gunfights in LOC matters. Since 2015, outside of Kashmir there has been no major bomb blasts in public places. That itself speaks a lot about the political will, capacity to act and the fact that funds / budget has been appropriately used by this Government. I feel sorry to say this but only a person devoid of strategic thinking will refer to change of strategy as a U Turn. Governments continuously explore ways to improve the security environment and revise strategies based on geo political situation. Fact is that this Government is doing it from a long term perspective and also from a position of strength
Very poorly written article devoid of any reasonable conclusion.
May be the author despite having spent good amount of time in military suffers from selective dimentia.
One can only derive the political mileage from this article.
May good sense prevails and people have courage to appreciate the good work done by our leadership and support the efforts of these Marvel’s.
I support my nation and the leadership of all our forces, PM as well as NSA
Jai Hind
Looks like written by congress man.
Only Rajiv Shukla will subscribe to this theory…they are a good anti Modi pair.
“Prime Minister Modi has the mandate, popularity and political skills to bring about lasting peace with Pakistan and China”
True. But the moment exercises these factors all these will be lost. He thrives on jingoism, even if not practical, hatred and intolerance. Remove these from his profile he is lost
hahaha u frustrated rice bag covnert christians … Modi has defeaed porkis n chinese …. under him indian army killed 45 chinese soldiers …your antihindu agenda is open straight … n i hope you will be made to pay
Grape is Sour!!