I saw Ukraine’s resilience from an air shelter in Odesa—it simply refuses to fall

Representational image | Aftermath of a Russian missile attack in Odesa | Photo credit: Reuters

On the 1,000^th day of the Russia-Ukraine war – 19 November 2024 – I found myself walking through the streets of Odesa, a stunning port city established by Catherine the Great, a ruler frequently invoked by President Vladimir Putin in his speeches today. This city, Ukraine’s largest seaport, plays a vital role in ensuring food security for about 90 countries worldwide.

Its bay stretches in an elliptical shape from the southwest to the northeast along Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline, standing as a crossroads of waters and cultures. Recently, however, Odesa has become a frequent target of Russia’s relentless missile attacks, primarily with Iskander missiles launched from Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. On the eve of the war’s grim milestone, Moscow launched a ballistic missile at the city, striking energy infrastructure.

As I stepped off my mini-bus, I encountered a city cloaked in partial darkness, a lingering aftermath of the missile attack from the previous day. Near the waterfront, the scene resembled a ghost town; an unsettling silence hung in the frigid winter air. Residents emerged quietly from narrow streets, heads bowed, while military personnel guarded damaged buildings.

Many of Odesa’s grand structures had their shattered windows replaced with temporary coverings—a stark reminder that glass is often the first casualty of an explosion.

We passed workers clearing shards from a recent attack on a men’s club and a stylish restaurant. Just hours earlier, this very street had been littered with bodies. Although much of the city remained in darkness, some areas—mainly commercial zones—operated using generators.

As I reflected upon the risks the city undergoes every day from my own air shelter at night, the situation looked rather bleak. However, remarkably, within 24 hours, the regional administration had managed to restore limited power to all residents, a testament to their resilience. Throughout the ordeal, the sensitive port infrastructure maintained an uninterrupted power supply, underscoring Odesa’s importance as the hub of Ukraine’s export economy.

Before the 2022 war, Ukraine had 13 bustling ports along the Black Sea, which collectively handled 160 million tonnes of cargo annually, according to the country’s seaport authority. Since 2022, however, Ukraine has relied on just six active ports. Three of these—Odesa, Pivdennyi (to the left), and Chornomorsk (to the right)—make up the Greater Odesa port cluster. The remaining three, Reni, Izmail, and Ust-Dunaisk, are river ports situated along the Danube River. These Danube ports became significantly more active after Russia’s full-scale invasion, which had caused Ukraine to lose access to ports along the Sea of Azov, including the prominent Mariupol.

Although the capacity of the Danube ports falls short compared to the larger Odesa ports, the war forced Ukraine to make the most of its available resources. As a result, shipping activity through the riverine ports increased dramatically. Despite their limitations, these ports remain vital to Ukraine’s broader struggle to sustain maritime exports.

Thanks to determination, adaptability, and the depletion of Russia’s Black Sea fleet capabilities, Ukraine has managed to surpass pre-war export levels. The remaining Russian warships have since been repositioned eastward toward the Sea of Azov. How did Ukraine manage this feat?

War and global hunger

After the Russia-Ukraine war erupted in February 2022, it triggered a severe crisis as grain exports from the Black Sea came to a halt. In response, the United Nations and Turkey brokered a “Grain Deal” between Ukraine and Russia, aimed at resuming exports to vulnerable countries in Asia and Africa. This agreement facilitated the shipment of 32.8 million tonnes of cargo through 1,004 vessels until it ended in July 2023.

Following Russia’s withdrawal from the deal, citing perceived favouritism toward Ukraine, Odesa suffered its first major attack by Russia in late July 2023. Grain exports temporarily slowed in August but rebounded in September when Ukraine established a new shipping corridor near the borders of NATO member states Romania and Bulgaria. Between September 2023 and November 2024, this new corridor facilitated the export of over 80 million tonnes of goods via 3,107 vessels—more than doubling the activity achieved during the grain deal.

This remarkable achievement unfolded despite relentless Russian attacks, with over 200 strikes across 60 separate incidents targeting the Greater Odesa port region during this period. The worst of these, as mentioned earlier, occurred on the eve of the war’s 1,000th day.

Currently, Ukraine’s Seaport Authority not only maintains an extraordinary level of export activity but also collaborates with Western partners to restore damaged port infrastructure and improve dredging operations, which were also impacted by the attacks.

However, for these exports to continue, mobile shelters for port workers are critical. Ballistic missiles launched from Crimea reach Odesa in about two minutes—insufficient time for workers to reach air shelters. Mobile shelters could be lifesaving as the frequency of attacks increases.

Sea power differential

Notably, the current assaults on Odesa are not being carried out by Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Kyiv has effectively neutralised a significant portion of Moscow’s naval power through the deployment of Magura V5 sea drones and Neptune missiles, sinking high-profile warships like the Moskva. Today, 40 per cent of Russia’s naval strength has been destroyed, achieving a state of sea denial in the region.

But Ukraine has not achieved air denial, where Russia retains a clear advantage. The frequent use of Kalibr and Iskander missiles, and Iranian-made kamikaze drones such as the HESA Shahed-136, strains Ukraine’s air defences. Air defence systems like the Patriot remain the most effective against Iskanders but are in constant short supply, necessitating regular appeals to Western allies for replenishment.

Another under-discussed challenge is the extensive sea mining of the northwestern Black Sea by Russia, which has endangered international shipping. In response, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey signed a landmark agreement in January 2024 to clear these waters of floating mines.

Jointly deploying minesweepers and minehunters, they have begun systematically removing naval mines, ensuring safer passage for commercial vessels. The key difference is that minesweepers remove or detonate naval mines in large areas while minehunters remove individual mines in shallow waters.

The Black Sea has become a modern battleground, showcasing innovative naval warfare tactics. With Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Russia’s power in the Baltic Sea has waned, and its dominance in the Black Sea is under threat. This erosion of influence has intensified Russia’s efforts to cling to it, resulting in increased damage to energy infrastructure and civilians. Technologically, the Black Sea serves as a preview of future wars, driven by advancements in drones, missiles, and adaptive naval capabilities on both sides.

Odesa will not fall

When the war began, many believed Odesa would meet the same fate as Mariupol, another key port city. Located in Ukraine’s southern region and predominantly Russian-speaking, Odesa serves as the Black Sea’s most vital port, while Mariupol, on the Sea of Azov, was central to iron and steel exports.

Mariupol fell after 80 days of full-scale invasion, its residents either fleeing or succumbing to relentless bombings. Strategic forecasts anticipated Odesa would follow, as controlling its ports was seen as critical for Russia’s maritime ambitions.

However, the last three years have unfolded differently. Ukraine’s ability to achieve sea denial has forced Russia eastward in the Black Sea, confining its attacks largely to airstrikes. For Russia to capture Odesa, it would need to mount simultaneous assaults by air, sea, and land. Having failed to do so at the war’s outset when its resources were optimally robust, the likelihood of a grand success is decidedly slimmer.

Ukraine’s deployment of advanced maritime drones, new missile systems, and adaptive strategies has deepened the damage to Russia’s capabilities.

While Russia may eventually catch up in drone technology, building warships takes years.

After 1,000 days of relentless war and the alleged use of the first Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) or a likely variant against Ukraine, Odesa stands as a symbol of resilience and a crucial hub for global maritime trade, particularly ensuring food security for nations in the ‘Global South’.

The writer is a geopolitics analyst and author. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.

(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)