Loyalty and revenge are being explored in equal parts in the Maldives these days, as the Indian Ocean nation went to polls this weekend and delivered a stinging blow to the ruling pro-India Maldivian Democratic Party.
In the results declared Sunday, the MDP’s presidential candidate, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, was trailing by 7 per cent against the front-runner, the pro-China candidate and Male mayor Mohamed Muizzu. Since neither candidate got over 50 per cent of the vote, the second and final round of voting will take place on 30 September.
Solih won 39 per cent of the vote, while Muizzu was ahead with 46 per cent. The exact difference of 7 per cent between the winner and runner-up was grabbed by Ilyas Labeeb of The Democrats, a party headed by former president and MDP leader Mohamed Nasheed, who broke away from Solih and the MDP to form a new party because India preferred to back Solih over him.
Nasheed will play kingmaker
If Nasheed had stayed in the MDP and if India had backed him, there’s no question who today’s winner would be. But history has always been a game between ifs and buts, and sometimes, the winner who takes all is forced to choose the side that is not yours.
Of course, the next few weeks will decide which way the wind blows in this Indian Ocean nation of several hundred islands and atolls. There is much speculation that Nasheed will support Muizzu, even though he is the author of the ‘India Out’ campaign, which includes the promise to remove so-called “Indian soldiers” believed to be stationed on Addu island.
Only a month ago, Nasheed had said about Muizzu that if he wins, he will introduce a kind of extremist politics in the Maldives that the island nation had never seen before.
How things change in six weeks. If Nasheed does end up supporting Muizzu today, it will be the end of what once was and could have been again, a beautiful relationship between him and New Delhi.
But if all sides are persuaded to come to some sort of understanding, then Nasheed could very well transfer his 7 per cent vote to Solih, allow him to win, and in return get his pound of flesh – whatever that might be.
At the end of the first round, there’s no question that Nasheed is the kingmaker of this Maldivian election, not Solih or Muizzu. And that the former president remains the most powerful man in the Maldives today.
Nasheed and Solih were once best friends. Nasheed was in exile in Sri Lanka in 2018 when the people of the Maldives unexpectedly overthrew the ruling pro-China government led by Abdulla Yameen and voted the MDP back to power. Solih was named the presidential candidate because Nasheed was in exile, so he naturally became president.
Nasheed was named for the next best job, that of Speaker of the People’s Majlis – but he has spent the last five years chafing at the bit, wanting to assert his powerful presence, which Solih kept denying him space for.
Still, everyone in the Maldives and the rest of the region is keenly aware that it is Nasheed who wins the votes for the MDP. An unfortunate primary earlier this year pitted the two men face-to-face – Nasheed lost, to his great chagrin. He later said that the MDP had fixed the voting lists. But the fact remained that Solih had won.
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The Indian will in Maldives
Over the last five years, India has doubled down to support Solih, committing projects to generate employment as well as strengthen the security ring around the Maldives; simultaneously, differences between Delhi and Nasheed began to grow.
So when Nasheed began to push for a change in the form of government, from presidential to parliamentary, Delhi pooh-poohed the suggestion. The Maldives is too small, too unstable, too far-flung – there were so many reasons to maintain the status quo. Nasheed felt that India was not interested in supporting his rise to power.
So what did he do? He decided to break away from his beloved MDP, form his own party, undermine his former friend and offer the Maldivian voter an alternative – Muizzu. They took it.
The problem is that Muizzu is not just the architect of the ‘India Out’ campaign; his wife is said to be a close relative of a senior leader of the radical Jammiyatul Salaf organisation. The irony is that when Nasheed was attacked by a motorcycle bomb a few years ago, it was by suspected “religious extremists” who wanted him eliminated because they thought he was too modern and progressive for the Maldives.
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What will Nasheed do now?
Perhaps the real problem is that Nasheed truly believes in the democratic nature of India – even though India would prefer that Solih remains in power. But if Solih isn’t going to win the vote and Muizzu looks like he could become president, what does Nasheed do? Does he take revenge on Solih and help Muizzu win the top job, or does he listen to his conscience and do the right thing by his people, even if it were to affect him personally?
This is where the Maldives stands today. At the centre of this charmed circle is Nasheed – a former prisoner who has spent time in solitary confinement in jails built by former president and India’s fast friend, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. And he is so charismatic that Maldivian politics revolves around him.
What will Nasheed now do? Will he support Solih by remaining loyal to his old party, the MDP, and allow India to breathe a sigh of relief, or will he be so consumed by the idea of revenge that he will do anything in his power to stop Solih?
The Maldives awaits an answer on 30 September.
Jyoti Malhotra is a senior consulting editor at ThePrint. She tweets @jomalhotra. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)