German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visit Beijing. A Covid-19 policy rumour fuels a $450 billion market rally. Taiwan’s deputy minister of economic affairs, Chen Chern-chyi leads a delegation to India. Ambassador US Qin Gang could become the next Chinese foreign minister. Beijing names 11 bridges after Galwan soldiers. Chinascope separates news from the chaff of the rumour mill in this week’s round-up about China – and the world.
China over the week
Breaking ranks from other European and G7 leaders, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made his much-speculated visit to Beijing on 3 November. Scholz became the first G7 leader to visit Beijing since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“It is easy to destroy political mutual trust, but it is difficult to rebuild it, which requires mutual care from both sides. I appreciate the view of former German Chancellor Scholz,” said Xi Jinping during his meeting with Scholz.
Scholz and Xi discussed the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Also read: All Chinese CPEC workers in Pakistan to move in bullet-proof cars: Report
“China supports Germany and the EU in playing an important role in promoting peace talks and promoting the building of a balanced, effective and sustainable European security framework,” said Xi.
International media have hailed Xi’s comments on nuclear weapons as a ‘success’ for Scholz’s visit. But that’s a low bar. Xi also called for joint efforts to thwart the threat or use of nuclear weapons in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Beijing won’t openly support Russia’s rhetoric on nuclear weapons, but that doesn’t mean China is backing down from its ideological alignment with Moscow.
Scholz’s delegation was filled with German business conglomerates who are reluctant to reduce dependence on Beijing – and instead, want Berlin’s continued engagement.
It may be challenging to understand what Scholz wanted to accomplish with the Beijing visit. But a comment gives us some insight.
“If I am travelling to Beijing as Germany’s federal chancellor, I’m also doing so as a European. Not to speak on behalf of all of Europe—that would be presumptuous and wrong—but because German policy on China can only be successful when it is embedded in European policy on China,” said Scholz.
The so-called German version of ‘European policy on China’ comes down to maintaining economic ties with Beijing while checking US’s power in Europe. The approach is tried and trusted in Berlin’s power circles.
Scholz may have played into Beijing’s ‘divide and rule’ approach by rejecting French President Emmanuel Macron’s request to join the visit.
Before meeting Scholz, Xi met with another visiting foreign leader, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
“The construction of supporting infrastructure at the Gwadar port should be accelerated to give full play to the port’s role as a radiation driver for regional connectivity and development. The two sides should work together to create conditions for the early implementation of the No. 1 Railway Mainline Upgrade Project and the Karachi Ring Road Project” said Xi, according to Xinhua News Agency.
Xi also added that he was “highly concerned” about the safety of Chinese citizens in Pakistan.
“I hope Pakistan can provide a reliable and safe environment for Chinese institutions and personnel,” said Xi.
The visit of top leaders may have given some people the impression that China is about to adjust its Covid policy.
Rumours about Chinese politics, economy and society are almost a weekly diet for the China watchers. One during the past week lifted optimism in the financial markets.
A text in black on a white background with no information linking it to any government entity started to spread in an internal WeChat group consisting of financial analysts and fund managers.
The screenshot of the post claimed that Wang Huning, one of the seven Politburo Standing Committee members, had held a meeting with Covid-19 experts based on a request by Xi Jinping. The screenshot called Xi Jinping “big boss” and Wang Huning was referred to as “WHN” in a bid to sidestep the social media censors. The screenshot suggests that a “reopening committee” headed by Wang Huning had started reviewing data from the US, Hong Kong, and Singapore to develop a process of “reopening” China for foreign visitors.
The rumour gained credibility when “96 Old Stock Trader” shared it on the Chinese language financial platform, Xueqiu. The rumour was enough to fuel a $450 billion market rally over a period of two days.
But the Chinese health officials soon denied it.
Also read: China posts 6-month high COVID count as it sticks with strategy
The National Health Commission (NHC) has reiterated Beijing’s commitment to “overall policy of dynamic zero” during a press conference on 5 November.
“At present, China is still facing the dual risk of the importation of epidemics from abroad and the spread of local epidemics, and the prevention and control situation is still serious and complicated. We must adhere to the principle of ‘people first, life first’, the general strategy of ‘prevention of foreign transmission and internal spread’ and the general policy of ‘COVID zero’ without wavering and coordinate epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development” said Hu Xiang, second-level inspector of the Department of Communication and Prevention, National CDC, during the press conference.
The rumour highlights the growing desperation among the domestic Chinese population and some financial investors to see an end to the current regime of almost arbitrary lockdowns.
Veteran China watcher Bill Bishop suggests that it may not be entirely true but the rumour may hint at some upcoming adjustment to quarantine and overall Covid policy to ease the economic strain.
“That is not a sign of a change from dynamic zero-Covid but a sign of calibration to try to end some of the strangulation of economic activity,” wrote Bill Bishop.
The discussion about the direction of Covid policy remains one of the most discussed topics on Chinese social media.
The hashtag “National Centers for Disease Control and Prevention responds whether to adjust prevention and control policies in the near future” was viewed 330 million times on Sina Weibo.
As the Chinese public remains busy dealing with Covid restrictions, the Chinese state media continues to remind them about the 15 June 2020 clash in Galwan.
On 4 November, the Chinese state-run Global Times reported that China had named 11 bridges along the G219 highway—connecting Tibet to Xinjiang—named after the soldiers who died during the Galwan clash. The Global Times story in English was based on videos on Weibo shared by party-linked accounts and social media users.
On 2 November, Xinjiang Communist Youth League shared a video showing the road-side signs with the names of the Galwan soldiers.
“Deep in the Karakoram Mountains, bridges are named after martyrs, remembering their charge. Heroes always stand in Karakorum!” said the post by the Xinjiang Communist Youth League.
China’s BeiDou Navigation Satellite System is a multifaceted technological innovation that powers a wide array of industries. On Friday, Beijing issued a white paper titled ‘China’s BeiDou Navigation Satellite System in the New Era.’
Also read: Manufacturing moving to India from China, but trade deficit a concern, says Mark Mobius
China in world news
From reluctant partners to enthusiastic affiliates, the diplomatic relationship between Taiwan and India continues to grow by leaps and bounds.
Taiwan’s deputy minister of economic affairs Chen Chern-chyi led a delegation to New Delhi.
“We work with local partners. We heavily depend on the Indian government to help us invest here,” Chen said.
The convergence between Taiwan’s ‘Go South’ and India’s ‘Make in India’ policy is set to find many enthusiasts in both countries.
Three MOUs were signed at the 2022 India-Taiwan Industrial Collaboration Summit jointly during Chen’s visit to New Delhi.
Even New Delhi isn’t shying away from strengthening ties with Taiwan.
“The nature of geopolitics, geopolitical changes and the nature of supply-chain realignment … [make] it imperative for Taiwan to look at India with fresh eyes,” said Gourangalal Das, director general of the India Taipei Association.
When Qin Gang started his term as Beijing’s ambassador to Washington, some had suggested he would approach relations with the US from the prism of engagement. But that’s been far from true.
In the latest power transition at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, Qin was included on the list to join the next Politburo—a promotion for his loyalty to Xi.
Qin is one of the potential candidates to become the next foreign minister replacing Wang Yi, who may be promoted to be the director of the foreign affairs commission.
Qin has been far from conciliatory during his posting in Washington. Last month, he sent a note to US senator Josh Hawley accusing him of being “arrogant despicable”.
The hostility in US-China relations isn’t one-sided. After arriving at his post in September 2021, Qin was given access to only a handful of US officials, including Kurt Campbell, the National Security Council’s Indo-Pacific coordinator, and Laura Rosenberger, NSC’s senior director for China, Politico has revealed.
Could the US have changed the Chinese approach to international affairs by giving a warmer welcome to Qin? It’s unlikely as the policy is being driven from the top by Xi himself. Qin Gang is playing the tune Xi prefers, and hence, he may have just secured a promotion.
Also read: Covid disruption at Apple plant in China to dampen iPhone 14 shipments
Must read this week
What China’s Past Can Tell Us About Xi’s Future – Howard W. French
The author is a columnist and a freelance journalist, currently pursuing an MSc in international politics with a focus on China from School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London. He was previously a China media journalist at the BBC World Service. He tweets @aadilbrar. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)