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HomeOpinionFrom AFSPA to street protests, Modi govt needs new thinking in J&K...

From AFSPA to street protests, Modi govt needs new thinking in J&K with Article 370 gone

Abrogation of Article 370 is an opportunity for India to end a decades-old conflict. Here’s what Modi govt must do to avail it.

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Whatever we may think of the merits, the method and the timing of the Narendra Modi government’s move to scrap Article 370, the fact is that the deed has been done. While the constitutionality of the government’s actions has been challenged in the Supreme Court, we should not expect the judiciary to overrule the decision entirely. What ought to be of utmost concern now is: Where do we go from here? How do we try to make India — including Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh — a better place than it was before 5 August 2019? If the moment presents us with an opportunity to bring to an end a decades-old conflict that has brutalised Indian society, what should India do to avail it?

I will address these questions in this space over the next few weeks. The Modi government’s action will have broader consequences in the domain of international relations, constitutional rule, and our national self-image. Today, I want to focus on the most important stakeholders in the whole affair: the Kashmiri people. What are the necessary policies that the Modi government must adopt to prevent the situation from deteriorating further?


Contain violence

The immediate priority, of course, is to ensure that violence — both by the protesters and by the security forces — is contained and limited. It is naive to expect that a move as politically salient as the undoing of Article 370 and the demotion of the state into two Union Territories will not attract violent political protests. When the media blackout is lifted, we are bound to see more public agitation: from street protests to stone-pelting to worse. With no political leadership in Kashmir willing to side with New Delhi at this point in time, the risk of violence in the immediate term is severe, and will erupt periodically over the next few years.

What should be the security response? We should seek to stabilise the political situation in the Valley in the short term, which means that the immediate security response must be marginal, not maximal. This means New Delhi must lift the communications blockade soon, and allow public protests and demonstrations to resume. The security response must be calibrated to ensure that protesters do not escalate violence, and that the protests do not spread. The Jammu and Kashmir police force must quickly resume being the security bulwark that it has long been. The damage done to the police force’s morale and its public standing must be reversed.

In my view, the underlying political problem with respect to Kashmir is the bitter affective divide between the Kashmiris and the rest of India. Realist statesmanship — which even Kautilya would recommend — indicates that bridging this affective divide ought to be the Modi government’s fundamental political goal. You can’t apply psychological salve to a population if people only see armed security personnel around them.


Also read: J&K residents not impressed with Modi speech, say opening up Kashmir will hurt state


Five steps, at the earliest

So, first and foremost, New Delhi must embrace a new thinking, which increases security but reduces the visibility of security personnel. This must be done as early as possible — the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait. It involves taking a certain amount of risk, but it is necessary if New Delhi’s promises of a better future for the Kashmiri people are to become credible in their eyes.

Second, the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) is another issue where there is an opportunity to make an immediate impact on the Kashmiri mind. So far, the debate has been a binary – between the Kashmiri people who want it to be lifted and the army that correctly argues it cannot operate without the statute. It is opportune to now adopt a surgical and “smart” AFSPA, wherein its provisions can be limited in time and space. New Delhi has fine political minds that can accommodate both Kashmiri demands and the Army’s necessities. There would be nothing like a change in the AFSPA to signal New Delhi’s bona fides, and invite Kashmiri political leaders to reciprocate.

Third, New Delhi should send a large number of administrators to both the new Union Territories. A few hundred civil servants, especially at middle levels, should be assigned to the two UTs on a special three-year deputation. The importance of improving basic governance — education, health, agriculture, trade and industry — often gets lost in the passionate political discourse on counter-insurgency. The erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir administration suffered from an acute capacity deficit arising from the conflict of decades. New Delhi announced development plans worth thousands of crores over the years, but there are not enough capable officials who can even disburse funds properly. As Union Territories, both Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh will have access to a wider pool of administrators.

Fourth, the youth in Kashmir and Jammu must be offered the right kind of opportunities of employment, growth and social status. Instead of another big, top-down sarkari plan — which have delivered middling results — the successful bottom-up plans to impart skills, improve employability, and boost entrepreneurship launched during Syed Ata Hasnain’s tenure at the Chinar Corps must be revived and scaled up. Plans for economic development are less about funds and more about building individual responsibility, showcasing role models and diminishing mistrust.

Finally, while panchayati and municipal governments are an important element of rebuilding Kashmiri politics, it is critical that the restrictions on legitimate political parties be lifted immediately. Whether you like them or not, they are part of the solution. In the coming months, they will take strident positions in response to the Modi government’s actions. This is understandable. However, there is no finality in politics. The BJP should realise that politics is in India’s national interest, and the ferment in the immediate term could create greater political space in the years to come.


Also read: Modi says new era has begun in Kashmir. Just like Indira Gandhi did almost 50 years ago


The author is the director of the Takshashila Institution, an independent centre for research and education in public policy. Views are personal. 

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10 COMMENTS

  1. Why don’t you go to PoK and give your Paki masters this advice. By 2006 the situation in Kashmir had stabilized. It was fairly peaceful and Tourism was booming. But Farooq, Omar and Mufti encouraged Separatists. It was your youth breeding like Piglets who indulged in Stone Pelting. Now reap the fruits of your actions. Don’t expect sympathy from the Indian Public. If you want Democratic Rights then earn it by demonstrating Loyalty to India and a genuine willingness for Peace.

  2. Well said Mr Asgar. You talk of democracy, which you people missed on various occasions when the democracy got a chance. For years the separatists/politicians have taken people for ride.
    What necessitated AFPSA in the first place? Never heard anyone addressing that. Can anyone assure cooperation from people to help to withdraw the same.
    Indian army doesn’t for first. If it had a routine of firing first, they would have never taken the casualties they get.
    The man with a gun is a terrorist. What good has he done to the society?
    Central govt is giving lot of money to state. If local politicians are corrupt and the benefit doesn’t reach an ordinary citizen, hence the disenchantment with the country.
    I understand the difficulties of Kashmiri people. But it cannot be my way out no way. For a win win situation both the sides have to walk. So far, that wanting from the local populace.
    Jammu has been part of the state. Yet no unrest despite biased approach of the local govt? Now, please don’t tell me that Kashmir is Islamic and Indian govt is right wing.

  3. I don’t think we can allow people of valley to live with corruption as it prevelant rest of India. It is unfortunate entire India excepting Kashmir are allowed to speak or write for and against 370 but but not those who are living in state. It like Govt wants marry Kashmir with rest of India without asking the state. Can problem of any other state be handled this way. Also BJP is claiming that 370 has been scraped in national interest. Will they lead to form a All Party government until situation turn normal as this would that entire India is with Kashmir. Such move would also send a signal to Pak and rest of world that when it comes to national integration we are one.

  4. The risk of violence in the immediate term is severe, and will erupt periodically over the next few years … That is the security dimension. As far as economic development is concerned, refer to another column today which points out that when Mrs Gandhi wanted to speed it up, she was told the unsettled conditions – this was before 1989 – precluded it. So a couple of PSUs were set up. In today’s Kashmir, even the customary stack of MoUs that come out of each Investors’s Summit will be missing. 2. The columnist is sincere but there is a terribly colonial feel to sending hundreds of mid level bureaucrats to Kashmir to tone up the administration /foster development. One can suggest so many other states in the cow belt that are more deserving of this honour.

  5. Yea, allowing some protest will be good. Give the people some space to vent their silly anger & get on with the daily struggles to get both ends to meet. Deal is done, so let them throw some stone, shout sillier slogans and get on with it.

  6. The people of the state were not consulted about their fate in their own land.
    Modi has made a rod for his own back.
    What the central government has done will come to haunt us all.
    It was draconian and dictatorial it does not behove a democracy.
    It is being forced on the population with a gun pointed at them, by literally locking them up, silencing them by cutting all communication.
    This is what a mad dog Stalin, or a Mao or a dictatorship from Banana Republic would do to a population.
    This Kind of behaviour has no part in the modern civilised modern world.
    The Behaviour of the ruling party has been obscene Grotesque an abomination, like so many things happening in India. Indian society has been poisoned, our thinking has become ugly, just like in Nazi Germany.
    The bifurcation of the State must be halted by the Supreme Court.
    The act abolishing section 170 should be declared unconstitutional.
    Grater autonomy must be given to J & K.
    A peoples government however corrupt, is the choice of the people, elections must be held in J&K as soon as possible and a democratically elected government installed. The central government must desist from manipulating this government or the elections.
    We have Flawed and corrupt state governments all over India loot the people, Kashmir is no exception. We must learn to live with it. More than half the states are more badly administered and worse off compared to the standard of living of Kashmir.
    You must persist in winning hearts and minds with all sincerity, tying people in front of jeeps as hostages will not do. AFSPA should be removed. Obtaining the goodwill of the people is a slow process.
    There are no easy solutions, a lot of damage has been done, this is the only way to get out of the morass the bad ideology of the RSS has inflicted on our democracy and on we Indians as a people.
    We have to rehabilitate the Kashmiri, but first we have to rehabilitate our poisoned minds as a society.

    • The mask fell off with the Burhan Wani saga. Here is a declared religious fanatic, with Jihad verses in bandana and machine guns, a hero.
      Even very moderate, secular Hindus like me understand what is going on. Land conquest scheme for Jihad.

    • Funny the commentator suggests living with increased corruption in this long rhetoric. People talk about “democracy” and then smartly replace that with majoritarian religious view which is the moot issue for protesting junta. They mostly worry about loss of religious “saria” laws than any democratic laws which in fact now gets implemented protecting minorities in the state and giving them their due rights including the one to “vote”. One obviously can’t argue with such religious biases and can never even appease them ever for they will not stop till they can establish a theocratic rule than a democracy. It’s a good riddance of Article 370 for new logical India than such theocratic proponents.

    • Asghar bhai, I completely sympathuse with you. I think apart from Govt, people from rest of the India also need to chip in their bit for healing touch. Together we will sail through this. Brother, after winter, spring has to come!!! Inshallah!

    • Why don’t you go to PoK and give your Paki masters this advice. By 2006 the situation in Kashmir had stabilized. It was fairly peaceful and Tourism was booming. But Farooq, Omar and Mufti encouraged Separatists. It was your youth breeding like Piglets who indulged in Stone Pelting. Now reap the fruits of your actions. Don’t expect sympathy from the Indian Public. If you want Democratic Rights then earn it by demonstrating Loyalty to India and a genuine willingness for Peace.

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