Canada and India have had a tumultuous and fractious relationship in the last few years, fraught with wild allegations from the Canadian side and mistrust and concern from the Indian side.
Indo-Canadian diplomatic relations hit their nadir under the contentious leadership of PM Justin Trudeau, who was well known for his Bollywood-style theatrics. In order to save his uneasy coalition with the New Democratic Party (NDP), he sacrificed his relationship with the roaring tiger of South Asia. The kind of undiplomatic behaviour displayed under his leadership derailed the Indo-Canadian friendship and brought diplomacy to its knees.
Now, his successor, Mark Carney, has called for snap elections on 28 April. Will he succeed in stabilising the country, especially in light of Trump’s tariff threats, or will he fall into the same trap as Trudeau?
Also read: India has a Trudeau problem, not a Canada one
The Trudeau trap
When Justin Trudeau first came to power in 2015, he appeared as a breath of fresh air to the Canadian electorate. Young and dynamic, he was considered a rising star in global politics. But along the way, he somehow lost the plot and his popularity plummeted to an all-time low from which there was no recovery.
Prior to his resignation, Trudeau’s approval ratings had fallen from a peak of 65 per cent to as low as 22 per cent. This decline was attributed to various factors, including economic challenges and public dissatisfaction with his leadership. Once the ‘poster boy’ of liberalism—leading his centre-left Liberal Party to a thumping victory in the 2015 elections—a series of issues brought his leadership to a standstill. Some of the reasons for his downfall are enumerated below:
Economic challenges: Under Trudeau’s leadership, Canada faced economic hurdles, including rising inflation and soaring housing prices, which strained household budgets and eroded public trust in his administration.
Ethics violations: Trudeau’s tenure was marred by ethics violations. He was rumoured to have accepted luxury gifts from lobbyists and controversies like the WE Charity scandal caused public outrage, leading to a reduction in his credibility.
Handling of protests: The government’s response to the Freedom Convoy protests in 2022, where emergency powers were invoked to dismantle demonstrations, fuelled national divisions and criticism of Trudeau’s leadership approach.
Indigenous relations: While strides were made in addressing Indigenous issues, controversies such as Trudeau’s absence during the first National Day for Truth and Reconciliation in 2021 undermined his commitment to reconciliation efforts.
Leadership transition: Facing mounting challenges and declining public support, Trudeau resigned in early 2025, leading to Mark Carney’s appointment as the new Prime Minister and a subsequent snap election call.
Contenders for the political crown
While Canada is a constitutional monarchy, sharing its leadership with other Commonwealth realms, making King Charles III the supreme leader of Canada, the prime minister is chosen through elections. The contenders for the role of Canada’s next PM are:
Mark Carney (Liberal Party): Former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, Carney assumed leadership of the Liberal Party after winning the intra-party polls following Trudeau’s resignation. He was sworn in as Prime Minister on 14 March 2025, becoming the first in Canadian history to hold the office without prior elected experience. Carney’s campaign emphasises defending Canada’s sovereignty and diversifying trade relationships in response to US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies and annexation threats. Carney will be running from the Nepean seat in Ottawa.
Pierre Poilievre (Conservative Party): As the leader of the Conservative Party—which until last month was leading the polls—Poilievre has adopted a “Canada First” approach that resonated with voters. However, of late, his alignment with Trump’s ideology will have to be watched carefully. Poilievre pledges to stand up and protect Canada’s independence, positioning himself as a defender of national sovereignty. But he is perceived to have many similarities with Trump, which may impact how people vote. Poilievre talks about fixing a ‘broken’ Canada and his largely ‘combative’ style of politics seems set to challenge the political status quo in his own country.
Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault (Green Party): Co-leaders of the Green Party, May and Pedneault aim to expand their party’s presence in Parliament. May, who has represented Saanich–Gulf Islands since 2011, returned to leadership alongside Pedneault in 2022. Pedneault, a human rights investigator and activist, is campaigning in the Outremont constituency. The Green Party focuses on climate action, affordability, and integrity in governance, with Pedneault representing the party in federal leaders’ debates.
Jagmeet Singh (NDP): The pro-Khalistani leader is seeking a third run at the Canadian polls, but has had little to show for it so far. He has pitched himself as the messiah of the masses, promising to support workers during economic downturns, but his party is not predicted to do very well. A CBC report said this week that “the NDP’s popularity has fallen to its lowest level in decades and the party is at risk of losing official status”.
Also Read: MAGA, MIGA, and Viksit Bharat—why India is on the rise in Trump 2.0
Trump impact
Perhaps it would be accurate to state that President Donald Trump will be the true winner of the Canadian Elections 2025. It is alleged by none other than The New York Times that, during calls in early February with Trudeau, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the standing treaties on the demarcation of the border between the countries, and wants to revisit these. The rhetoric on Trump making Canada the 51st state might just have a teenie trickle of truth.
It has been apparent from Day 1 of Trump 2.0 that the POTUS is targeting his northern neighbour in a big way. The above-quoted NYT article also mentions that during those calls, Trump expressed numerous concerns about the trade relationship between the two nations. He criticised Canada’s protected dairy industry, the challenges American banks encounter when operating in Canada, and Canadian consumption taxes, which he considered unfair, as they increase the cost of American goods. In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump also suggested that Canada “cheats” the US, reiterating his claims that America has been “subsidising” Canada to the tune of $200 billion each year.
This is likely pushing the needle gently toward the return of the Liberal Party, this time led by Carney. The Liberals are casting Poilievre as a mini-Trump, and claiming that Canada’s best interest will be served by returning the Liberal Party to power.
It remains to be seen which party will emerge victorious and stand up to Trump; the results are a mere six weeks away. But India’s concern is with rebuilding ties with Canada under the dignified leadership of any party not engaging in partisan politics against the sovereignty and integrity of the Republic of India.
Both Trudeau Junior and Senior had allowed separatism to fester on its sacred soil, and under no circumstances will Bharat stand for this. The provision of diplomatic parity had to be invoked by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) last year, which did not bode well for the mutual relationship. We hope that the new leadership will bring a new sunrise to Indo-Canada relations.
Meenakshi Lekhi is a BJP leader, lawyer and social activist. Her X handle is @M_Lekhi. Views are personal.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)