Some time ago, an important piece of news, important for the future, didn’t garner much attention—the total fertility rate of India has come down to just 1.99 in 2022. According to demographic theories, if the total fertility rate—the average number of children born to women in their lifetime—falls below 2.1 then the population of the country will start decreasing.
For a long time, the increasing population in India was seen as a burden. According to the demographic transition theory, this situation arises when the country is still underdeveloped, but due to advances in the field of medicine, better health facilities develop. In other words, when the medical revolution comes before the industrial revolution. Due to this, the birth rate in the country decreases at a very slow pace while the death rate falls rapidly. Its effect is that the rate of population growth starts increasing. This situation—called population explosion—was seen in India from 1950 to 1980. But after the 1980s, the birth rate went down further, hence the natural rate of population growth also started declining.
The decline in the mortality rate of infants below the age of one has a big impact on population. In India, it decreased from 111.7 per thousand in 1981 to 86.6 per thousand in 1991, 64.5 per thousand in 2001 and only 43.2 per thousand in 2011. It has declined to merely 27.7 per thousand in 2022, according to the data published by the National Population Registrar.
This led to a new opportunity for the country. Due to the decreasing infant mortality rate, the youth population in the country started increasing continuously, a phenomenon known as demographic dividend. If we take the data from 2001, the population of youth (age group of 15 to 34 years) in the country was 33.80 per cent of the total population, which increased to 34.85 per cent in 2011. It is currently more than 35.3 per cent of the total population. When one looks at absolute numbers, it becomes clear that today, India has the largest number of youth in comparison to any other country. This segment of the population can contribute more to development.
Everyone is talking about taking advantage of this situation and taking the country on the path of progress. Most economists agree that population is not a burden if used judiciously. There is a need to make full and efficient use of our youth power.
Fear of population decline
The natural rate of population growth has gone below zero in most ‘developed countries’. Which means their population is decreasing. In many such countries, there is some balance in the population due to the arrival of immigrants. Still, the chance of this situation continuing in the long run is low. In these countries, the fertility rate indicated a decline in population growth.
A similar situation is now happening in India. And the country’s demographic advantage is available only till 2042. Thus, the gross fertility rate of 1.99 can come in the way of the country’s progress.
The question is not only about the decline in the total fertility rate, there are also concerns about the differing rate in different sections of society. It is noteworthy that the fertility rate among illiterate women first increased, from 3.33 in 1991 to 3.36 in 2001, and later it decreased to 3.17 in 2011. But among women who are graduates and above, fertility rate has been consistently declining. In 1991 it was 1.62 and in 2011 it was 1.40. This is the same trend observed with women educated above matriculation and below the graduate level. Their fertility rate declined from 2.08 in 1991 to 1.77 by 2011.
These figures show that for people who can impart better education to their children and a better life, the fertility rate is low and for those who cannot, the fertility rate is high. If the fertility rate is high among illiterate, and is low and declining among educated, future composition of population will change for the worse in terms of quality.
Also Read: India gets the ‘highest population’ tag. But its young can counter burden by being productive
‘Double Income No Kids’
A new way of life is emerging in high-income pockets in urban areas, and is more prevalent among the educated and highly educated people. This thinking is inspired by the consumerist mindset of the West. Working couples are now aspiring to live a more independent and luxurious life instead of raising a family.
The institution of family has had a special importance in Indian society. Parents, along with their children and grandchildren have been happy while living as a family. But for some time now, the trend of joint families has been gradually on the decline.
These days there is also a tendency among some young couples to avoid the bond of marriage and opt for live-in relationship. Those in such relationships, generally don’t have children. Even many of those who get married, are not interested in having children. This thinking, that is, DINKS, double income no kids, is gaining currency.
And even if they do have a child, many couples are not interested in having more than one. Due to all this, fewer children are being born among the educated youth.
The figures of the continuously declining fertility rate among educated women are a reflection of the changing beliefs in society. This emerging situation in demography does not bode well for the rising level of population in the country. Although theoretically, even in uneducated and less educated families, children can become better off through education, there is a greater possibility that they remain illiterate and poor. Such a situation can bring down the quality of population. There is a need for deep thinking on this subject by society and the government.
Ashwani Mahajan is a professor at PGDAV College, University of Delhi. He tweets @ashwani_mahajan. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)
In India you are in 10% of income if you are earning 25000 per month and 1% of net worth if you have a problem of 1.5 crore. This means most of the middle classes are forming only 1% of India’s population of 10% of India’s population based on how you calculate. And yet, we cannot fighting for resources like good education, healthcare and roads. I am a young married women and I am super scared to bring a child into a world with intense competition. More than the pressure that an additional human would put on the world, I am scared of what would the world do to my child. Pollution is all time high, food is adulterated and we are on the verge of an irreversible environmental change. Plus competition to get into a decent school is too high. Why should anyone put through themselves and their child through such difficult situations when 90% of our population is languishing? Markets have failed the 90% percent and now also failing the middle classes. We have seen that neither too much government interference not completely free market works. Because the greed of a few is ruining the world. Why bring another human to this troubled world? Even if socially and economically we recover someday, but how about the irreversible environmental damage? I work in the environmental sector. I understand the nuances very well. I am holding hope against hope, and striving to make the world a better place. But I can’t agree more with people if they decide not to have a child. I understand their fears as well.
High educational costs and low job and livelihood prospects for educated people are the pivotal factors for educated couples especially educated women to make this decision of keeping no kids or only 01 kid.
Not by 2042, but way before that this population is evident.
But this reduction is not homogeneous in all categories, of population, like specific region is still producing more children.
Typical article by someone brainwashed by Western economic theory of ‘demographic dividend ‘, that treats everyone as a producer and consumer. It’s past time that Indians stop making babies and focus on improving their quality of life. Indian cities are now overcrowded hellholes with people living in filth, squalor, pollution and what have you. There is no reason to bring children into such a milieu, unless one hates children. Time to stop running a constant rat race and start smelling the flowers. There are just too many Indians on the planet. Let Indian women do better than just becoming baby making machines.
Ok so together let us all increase the population
This perspective offers a fresh take on population growth, diverging from common apprehensions. It highlights the potential benefits, notably the abundance of youthful wealth in our nation, emphasizing the significance of human resources as per economic principles. Recent observations in China and Japan underscore the economic strains resulting from declining youth populations and aging demographics, prompting initiatives to incentivize childbirth. Concerns about education and resource allocation for future generations are valid, urging governments to prioritize education and healthcare to foster quality citizens. Cultural values of love and sacrifice should outweigh imported anti-natalistic ideas, guiding policy evaluations and corrections.
Educated couples. Not women.
Creating some sensational news out of already-known information! When we are expected to reach 170 Crore soon, no need to create a fear of population decline. Better advice would be to start imparting education and eliminate illiteracy among women. This is the job of the State Govts which most of them failed to do.
“Educated Women are finally taking charge of their bodies and lives by carrying consensual, healthier and lesser pregnancies which now sees India with a Maternity Mortality Rate below 100 and lesser female suicides due to pressure and oppression from family.”
In times like today, where us women are fighting each day for better educational and professional opportunities, where it is a struggle to hold our stand against certain societal pulls, it is odious to see articles like this, titled like this, at one more attempt to throw a dig at women that are building themselves out of the controls of the society and being more. The youth that you’re talking about, which is taking the country to greater growths, also comprises of us young women, in the same demographics, that are capable of doing it by investing enough time and energy on their careers just like the men, who thus opt for single or no pregnancies which again is consensual with the husbands in lieu of their careers but you would definitely find it convenient to headline your article with how educated women and their decisions for their bodies and lives causes reduction in population for a clearly overpopulated country, struggling on all four of its limbs to suffice through the resources for the already residing population.
This is a fresh perspective different from the usual opinions which always seem to be afraid of population growth. It also brings into focus the positives of population growth, especially the amount of youth wealth that our country has. After all, we all studied in economics that human resources are one of the most important.
Recently I had read articles about China and Japan where declining youth population and increasing old age population is raidly putting strain in those countries’ economies and how they are trying to incentivise birth.
The concern about less educated children seems valid too. Then our country will have to put in more resources to develop people. It is the govts responsibility to develop quality citizens through education and healthcare, that is how the country progresses after all. If what the country did for one generation is not paying dividends in the next, policy should be seriously evaluated and mistakes should be corrected. It is not the woman’s fault or a man’s fault that they fall for an anti natalistic idea, mostly imported from the west. Our values has always been about love and sacrifice and that should get greater prominence in our present generation too.
This is a very strong and stupid opinion on the current demographic situation. The information being imparted by this article is wrong in so many ways and so many levels. The article is titled in a way that blames women’s education for the declining population. Declining population is not a bad thing at all, do you not see the number of people begging on the road or living on the streets? The country does not have enough resources to provide for everyone.
Instead of asking educated women to have more children, educate the uneducated women to have less of them. And yes, the population growth rate of India has recently reached stability, population decline still has a long way to come.
With over 170 cr population, resource crunch…we are still talking this
The opinion piece is written from an elitist point of view and has a very regressive tone. People should have absolute control over their own fertility choices and it is the responsibility of the state to adapt to changing demographics. And the state is itself the collection of its people! The demographic dividend comes at the cost of many women who are forced to ‘sacrifice’ their own choices in many spheres of life as there is yet a to be any signs of an gender equitable society in our country.