India has launched what by any standard is the most draconian and complete nation-wide lockdown of any country affected by novel Coronavirus or Covid-19. This is unusual for several reasons. First, reported infections in India as of March 27, 2020 are 747 out of a total population of 1.3 billion. Of these, 20 have died, and 66 have recovered. What is more, of all the active cases, each and every one of them has shown only mild symptoms. By any metric, India has a far less serious COVID-19 crisis than many advanced and emerging countries.
It has been suggested, including by me, that the low reported infection rate might reflect a very low testing rate in India. So far, India has tested a little more than 27,000 samples or a testing rate of about 20 per million. Compare this to testing rates of more than 6000 in South Korea and more than 600 in Spain.
It is theoretically possible therefore that the infection rate in India is much higher; but if this is true, then it raises another puzzle, why isn’t an already ill prepared public health system overwhelmed with people showing up with COVID-19 like symptoms? Why aren’t thousands of people on ventilators? Given India’s large elderly population and many a kind of respiratory problems due to pollution and other reasons, why aren’t thousands of people on ventilators and in overcrowded hospitals? If any of this has happened, it’s a well-guarded secret. This might just be possible in a totalitarian state like China but it’s impossible in open and democratic India. Despite its well-known flaws, Indian media, to say nothing of foreign media in India, would have jumped on such a story of alleged cover up.
The other noteworthy feature of the Indian situation is a very low fatality rate when computed as a percentage of all reported cases, as low as 2.6 percent. Contrast this with fatality rates as staggeringly high as 10 percent in Italy and in the US of 1.5 percent, just a little lower than India. Apart from outliers such as Italy, most countries have fatality rates around 1-2 percent give or take.
Also read: India didn’t create Covid-19 problem, but a better system would’ve helped us cope better
On the face of it, the Indian data suggest no reason for panic, especially given India’s early and aggressive action in closing international borders to travellers from affected regions — much before such action was undertaken in places like the US and Europe. The panic in India and elsewhere emanates from statistical and epidemiological models which predict massive fatality rates if draconian action is not taken to curb the spread of COVID-19. It turns out that these models are very likely wrong and have overstated the probable number of deaths from the virus.
Especially egregious is a recent New York Times op-ed by Ramanan Laxminarayan, an economist and self-described epidemiologist who praised India’s lockdown as necessary to save millions of lives because in his apparently model based judgement 500 million Indians could be infected and the consequences would be dire in the absence of draconian measures. The author claims to have a model but the estimates he provides has a barebones verbal description of what the model purports to do with no presentation of either the mathematical model or statistical methodology and jumping directly to his alarmist conclusions. Yet, this dubious piece of research which cannot be replicated has dominated thinking about the spread of COVID-19 and ways to respond to it.
On March 26, the United Kingdom downgraded COVID-19 and said it is no longer a High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID). In particular, low mortality rates were cited as a reason for the downgrade. Reacting to the UK announcement, Deborah Birx, the White House Response Coordinator for COVID-19, went so far as to say that the doomsday fatality scenarios predicted by widely publicized models are very likely wrong. Specifically, she argued that either infection rates, especially of those asymptomatic, are much higher than we thought, or the transmission mechanism is not correctly understood. Even more extraordinary, she stated bluntly: “The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground either in China, South Korea or Italy.”
This is the crux of the matter. As argued by Stanford medicine professors Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on March 24, a few days prior to the UK decision, there’s a serious methodological error in the way that fatality rates are being computed. Following conventional practice, as we did above, the fatality rate is computed as the number of deaths out of total confirmed cases, converted into a percentage. They correctly argue that this is an upward biased estimate as it commits the fallacy of selection. In other words, confirmed cases are those who’ve obviously shown symptoms and been admitted for treatment. However, the correct denominator is not confirmed cases but the actual total number of infections, a number which is obviously much larger.
Also read: Kerala promulgates Covid-19 ordinance to restrict duration of essential services
In the event that there are many infected people who’re asymptomatic, the number infected will be much larger than the number of confirmed cases, and the correct mortality rate therefore will be much lower by several orders of magnitude. According to their estimates, the true mortality rate is not what we reported above for the US, 1.5 percent, but more like 0.01 percent. If we assume that their calculation would hold true for India as well, the actual mortality rate in India would be an almost unmeasurably small 0.017 percent.
The public policy implications are very clear.
A disease which has a high infection rate that produces mostly mild symptoms and a mortality rate lower than the common flu is not a non-issue, but it’s not a cause for the levels of panic and paranoia that we’re witnessing around the world, including in India. The obvious issue is that a disease with high infection rates requiring people with even mild symptoms to seek medical help will be a huge burden on the public health system. At some point, as is already happening in some places including the US, hospital beds and ventilators may have to be rationed. There is thus a strong case to ensure testing, screening and enforced self-isolation for those exhibiting COVID-19 like symptoms for the recommended 14 day quarantine period. However, there is no valid argument for a draconian total lockdown of the type that has been imposed in India. For an uncertain and relatively small gain in reduced infections, there is a huge economic, social, and human cost which has already begun to manifest itself.
Good public policy is always based on the best science and most recent and reliable evidence.
Unfortunately, it is not at all clear that science or evidence were the basis of India’s lockdown. The good news is that there is still time to recalibrate in light of new research, as the UK and the US are doing. At a minimum, the government must undertake a cost-benefit analysis to measure the likely gain of a lockdown versus the burgeoning economic costs of basically shutting the economy down, in a country with many poor people already reeling from an economic downturn.
The total lockdown perhaps makes sense in a world in which COVID-19 carries extremely high mortality rates. We now know that this is very likely incorrect. The Narendra Modi government needs to re-think its policy before the lockdown produces an economic and humanitarian disaster.
Rupa Subramanya is an economist and researcher based between India and Canada. Views are personal.
This article was first published by Observer Research Foundation (ORF).
Forget whether Covid deserves the level of Panic, wonder if this deserve any attention at all.
So, you are saying that we should have enough number of cases and deaths to get paranoid and panic?
Why has this article even been printed?? Is it an article also by any chance? Such Senseless lines.
Kudos to the Harebrained Writer who has written such bul*$h*t ARTICLE which is nothing but a garble of phony English words, Collected from all over the Internet. Exactly to such an author N Taleb describe as IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiot)). They have NO SKIN IN THE GAME. The Print is regarding highly as thought provoking e magazine, I am surprised to see such a lengthy article with misinformation. Kindly treat Online Space as also Real state ?.
Have you ever heard of PRECAUTION IS BETTER THAN CURE…. ITS NEVER TOO EARLY TO START A GOOD DEED….
why do you want Italy or Spain or us situation to happen first to realise the seriousness of the time…
Stop publishing such stupid articles.
Looking at india population and with the rate it can spread here,,, it’s best decision taken and we are with our government in helping us through the time and saving our lives and family.
It’s the best decision taken WHO also says so that so far India is moving best direction.
But why would some sick people like you would ever appreciate government for anything.
Stay safe stay home please
In the face of a new, unknown disease that is wrecking havoc on older, vulnerable populations and better equipped healthcare systems, decisions are not made based only on realtime research – of which something new keeps popping up everyday.
We are thankful that the government is not basing policy on Google and Whatsapp research like this opinion writer is.
The government should keep people first and that is what the lockdown is about. At best we will get through this with low fatality count, at worst the much needed audit, dialogue over and investments into public healthcare infrastructure should start. The world over, economies have been wrecked already and everyone has to recover together.
Also prevention is better than cure. We dont say that enough.
“A disease which has a high infection rate that produces mostly mild symptoms and a mortality rate lower than the common flu is not a non-issue,” – what a moronic statement. Flu mortality is .02%, even based on the data you have published, the fatality rate of COVID-19 is 1-2%. see the differnce
.02 VS 1-2. how many times higher is the mortality rate.
Such a dumbass u are, first use your sense and brain also, as a medical student I know what are the consequences if the lockdown has not imposed. Italy has world’s best healthcare system still unable to control its death rate, so how India can hold if coronavirus cases is at saturation.
Selective journalism at its crappiest.
The lower designation of the virus by the UK cleared the way for treatment at ordinary hospitals, against only specialist ones.
Basically they said it’s not an Ebola (with a 90% mortality) and can be treated by GPs.
When the writer chooses to use just part of a fact, its more dangerous than a lie.
This is the most idiotic piece i have ever seen. Italy has already 10K deaths, if we multiply it in Indian scale then the death will reach a million. The deaths are always low in the beginning, then it spikes. Look at UK,USA, Netherlands. They are spiking .
With all due respects to the author and other comments, there are many here who are commenting just to defend the bjp govt or to discredit the author.
I’m no bjp fan, I think they were busy causing riots and licking trump while the virus was spreading in the world.
But, the virus knows no nationality and attacks the most vulnerable in a fatal way. We need to stop the virus from spreading. The only way to stop is to isolate.
Govt is obligated to take the extreme measures. Every single life matters. if my grandma is part of the low % of fatalities, it still matters to me. Hope the author empathizes and readers understand the situation.
I agree with you. The author seems to be either ignorant or anti Indian
Madam please stop selling snake oil. You do not know anything about this, nor do most people who are not epidemiologists.
But I am a data scientist and what I can tell you that the models on Italy and Spain predicted worse outcomes based on *no* lockdowns. Lockdowns save lives.
Remember one thing, if everyone is locked down 100% in isolation then this virus will die out in 3-4 weeks. India is doing the right thing, the only data point we have is a correlation of delayed lockdown with high mortality. California in US locked down first in US and New York delayed lockdown, the pronounced peak in NY and flattening of curve in California is a good data point to learn from.
Also your casual writing of “1-2 % mortality give or take”… well why don’t you take my advise and please shut up.
We know how to save ourselves and how to respect the government’s decision and how to stand hand in hand at the time of crisis. I wont say someone should have died from your family or relatives to make you realise how insane you are when you could help the society by spreading awareness with your writtings. The extent of panic from corona is not entirely new when we have lunatic people like you sheltered here on earth. You are actually visus. Sanitise your mind first.
At a minimum, the government must undertake a cost-benefit analysis.
Can you help with some back of envelope numbers so that government will find it easier. You could have done it here instead of writing this long article
Government already has the advisors it needs. Erring on the side of caution is the only correct strategy. If after sometime it is proved that the reaction was outsized then it will be a better outcome than otherwise.
what’s the expertise of the author on these matters?r an expert on epidemics?
no matter what the author is but for sure a scientist and must have developed a cure for own.
In this wire some articles saying that lockdown is necessary and other saying it’s just over reaction very few people will die lot of confused don’t know what they are saying
No real content in this article. Just blaming govt in what ever they do doesn’t serve the purpose. Lock down is indeed a much needed step to fight back covid-19. Looking at the poor health infrastructure in India, it is imperative that we take strong steps. I am sure with this effort we will be able to control the spread.
Wonder what this lady smokes !!!
When there is no accountability is is very easy to pass opinions.
You only wrote an article for the sake of writing but havent used ur brain even for a second. Idiots like you are filled everywhere who understand nothing but only using words and write shit…….. Do you even understand what exponential increase is???? So i urge you to first do your homework and then write article…. Rather than just doing it to satisfy your ego
When there is no previous history or experience it is better to err on the side of caution. Every social or medical problem can’t have a mathematical solution.
Save us from your gyan!! Your credentials suggest you are an “economist”! I think you should try your hand at yellow journalism and Quackery, lady!
I am surprised this article could pass editorial scrutiny.
It is not a different point of view… They are welcome.
This is simply idiotic.
The Print always publish Dumbo Article.
According to Author, Death rate in First world countries with capable Health care system is not alarming for Poor Underdeveloped/Undeveloped nations which do not have a well established health care system.
Just see the Statistic of Medical equipment per 10K population then you would understand that all the resources are for Rich people (Just like Author) so it is better to put lockdown to save poor.
There was an Oxford study which also suggested infection rates are much higher than previously thought. At any rate, the human toll of this draconian shutdown is questionable given India’s young demographics and warmer weather, both of which are likely to play to India’s advantage.
Unfortunately, we now know all too well that Modi does not like outside input. He prefers to huddle with those in the PMO and once they take a decision it is nearly impossible to get through the cheerleading barrier that surrounds it. For that reason, the prospects of changing govt policy is slim at best.
Warm weather & young demographics have NO BEARING on the Covid-19, you have nothing but dangerous false information in your head & you are calling Modi as uninformed?
You’re a tool.
In case no lockdown would have been imposed, the same author would have cited different set of statistics from the internet sitting in the comforts of her home and criticised the Govt for not taking adequate measures including lockdown.
To quote her ” Good public policy is always based on the best science and most recent and reliable evidence.” Well I haven’t seen any reference to it in this article, so on what basis she has come to conclusion that this lockdown lacks scientific and recent evidence for this decision of the Govt.
The author writes “At a minimum, the government must undertake a cost-benefit analysis to measure the likely gain of a lockdown versus the burgeoning economic costs of basically shutting the economy down “. I think where human lives are involved it’s shame she’s talking of cost benefit analysis; the thought process is rather from humanitarian perspective rather than economic.
If she claims herself to be economist and public policy research then I Challenge her to come out with some constructive article on how the Govt should move forward in reconstructing the economy post this Pandemic, I think that would be real journalism than doing postmortem based on half baked truths and minority opinion of experts on COVID -19.
The best point forward is that the vast majority of the people of India have reposed faith in the policy of the Modi govt and faithfully helped in its implementation as a word of law, howsoever draconian the move is stated to be. May be the govt withdraw it before the 21 day deadline to 14 day lockdown, depending on the outcome within this fortnight. Safety definitely saves in the long run. The govt will be well advised to take good care of the poorest of the poor in this hour of crisis. Let the richest of the rich come forward to help the deprived masses,instead of indulging in black marketing and profttaking.
Agree with your view , but the contrasting view must come from people who has some credibility and must be an expert on the subject matter. I have never heard of this writer before. These are fly by night experts. She is so convineently forgetting that despite being low mortality rate what kind of havoc it has already created with older population in Spain / Italy. Just think about Indian slums , the no. of people and the density, COVID-19 has the full potential to become a disaster in India . May be sound harsh but, no Govt. (be it congress or BJP) can take care of 50 crore poor people in India in this kind of scenario. Lets accept that every system has its limitations and some part of population will suffer whether we like or not. Every state and Central govt. are doing their bit to mange the situation
Ma’am, the low mortality rate argument is only valid till the number of critical patients doesn’t saturate our healthcare system which is already in a dismal state.
Once it saturates the system, the mortality can be greater than 10%. Please corroborate my views with the data coming out from Italy, Iran & Spain. Please reach out to me if there’s still any doubt with my views. I’m a final year MBBS student at AIIMS Jodhpur and have been extensively reading about the epidemiology of SARS CoV-2.
I find this op-ed to be a product of outright asymmetry of knowledge at the part of the ‘expert’. The lockdown is a step in the right direction.
I went back and read comments from people in Italy in early Feb that sounded just like this idiot. Now they have changed their tune and some have tried deleting articles. Hopefully it does not hit India very badly. But if it does the jacka$$ that wrote this article will change his tune and look for something else to be dramatic about. Hopefully you come to terms with your need for attention and stop hurting people before too many people die.
The writer of this garbage is a politically motivated left wing feminist crackpot.
This comment is to the author:
Don’t ever think about writing the opposite when things get alright! We hate chameleonic behaviour, especially with respect to writing.
Little would you know how difficult it is to impose a lockdown in the world’s largest democracy without much of people’s dissent. And mind you, this is to ensure the well-being of every Indian, not only for well-educated persons like you trying to use bombastic vocabulary to influence the readers’ thinking.
Journalism is getting so out of bounds nowadays. The hell I can also start writing stupid pieces like this!
“The Narendra Modi government needs to re-think its policy” – in order to re-think, you first have to think. You assume they actually think or analyze, first. You give this admin too much credit for their analytical abilities. Truth is that they’re impulsive & decisive just for optics. They blurt out whatever comes to mind in the spur of the moment & expect that to become policy & law. This is administration by proclamation & diktat – it does not work. obedient, innocent people pay the price. Modi, an uneducated man himself has witnessed the power of action & the PR effect it has on the masses. Its never thought out, its impulsive action. This cannot end well at all.
Please don’t even use the word ‘uneducated’ for NM out of ‘Modiphobia’. You are not even 0.0001 percent of him. He is managing 1.35 billions,you cannot manage even 135 honestly. You prefer Pappus to run the system?
This is the most idiotic article I have ever read.She is an economist not epidimologist.we are all battling against an invisible lethal strain of virus.I am a obg specialist working in Govt hospital in telangana.we are all working under lot of stress n tension .we fear the safety of our family n community.our govt is doing its level best to tackle this problem.Morons like her write some stupid article n influence innocent people.We don’t have stong health care in India.Even those countries who have utterly failed.
This pandemic has to be managed only by total lockdown n aggressively identifying positive cases n their contacts.Nothing short of this can save us.I think this dangerous article should be removed immediately
So, 1-2% of death rate isn’t alarming according to author.
What a piece of junk article.
Why not devalue life more than you have already done in this article, perhaps you will rethink when someone you care has their life at an edge.
So, 1-2% of death rate isn’t alarming according to author.
What a piece of junk article.
Why not devalue life more than you have already done in this article, perhaps you will rethink when someone you care has their life at an edge.
I think the true value of any opinion on how to fight the virus will be known only 6 months down the line ,but I will agree with the author that the mathematical models are overstating the numbers by a huge margin and have created unnecessary panic .Those who have created this models dont have to earn three daily bread unlike the daily wage earner.
This has made me so angry.Stop being so biased.Do u have any other solution?Success of coronavirus in developed countries is due to the fact that they downplayed it n n didn’t take a serious note of it.All other countries r praising India for controlling this disease.Also we all know our fellow Indian ppl n how much they abide by the rule.If the virus spread in India like it did in Italy then considering our public health system n population, it will be very difficult to prevent the disaster.Damn u whoever has written this.
The fatality rate assumed by the author is not correct and somewhat selective.Has she taken into account the rates in Italy,Spain,Iran et all?The suggestion to lower the consequences of this Pandemic is indeed devoid of any serious reasoning.At least the Indian Government started preventive measures much earlier than other countries.As for the supposedly large unreported and asymptomatic cases,there is very little reliable statistical evidence.On the contrary the Indian Council of Medical Research had undertaken randomised sample surveys and their findings provide the basis for the present testing policy..Any Statistician will know the value of findings from small samples despite their size limitations.Finally the evolution of policy in the case of this Pandemic is based on consultations among. the countries best medical and allied scientific personnel in and outside the Government.The Prime Minister does not unilaterally determine policy on such matters.One wishes the author had studied all the literature on the subject before venturing into prescrptive recommendations.
Even if the lockdown seems draconian the end result if no lockdown is so easy to predict. The infections will blow out of proportion and more severe measures like not admitting elderly into the hospital or god knows what happens to the poor who are infected in already strained health care system. Priorities will change and the end result will be chaotic. Densely populated countries need to follow different models than the developed countries. One can see many reasons how this pandemic may go out of proportion even if not supported by data. Afterall said and done I’ve been swayed by the article and my panic reduced a bit on Covid and increased a bit on economy.
This is the best solution . we could stop the spread. If it was not done, virus would have gone to our villages where the medical facilities are less. By this lock down , it stays somewhat in Cities. Yes there are problems and in future also it will be a economical problem but this step was at most needed . Now government has time to work on the medical facilities . Just seeing the percentage does not help. Once the medical facilities are overwhelmed, all calculations will go in air. Social distancing the best solutions and in India , only lock down can help.
Rupa Subrahmanya is not an epidemiologist. A lockdown is needed given India’s population density. China, France, Spain, Italy, Russia and New York State in America have imposed it. This is a public health emergency and India is particularly vulnerable given its overstretched health care system. This article is irresponsible.
It would be nice if economists like this author and Laxminarayan stop calling them epidemiologists. In fact these NRIs are worse than Indians as they use their positions abroad to sell their propaganda in India.
You are an economist and not an epidemiologist. As it is your knowledge of economics is limited which you are selling in foreign countries who have half backed brains. Now don’t poke your nose in the area which doesnot assure you any money.
Pathetic article. What alternatives are there? We should be thankful we are taking early precautions to make sure that the situation doesn’t blow out of proportion.
One may or may not agree with the column. But both in the public discourse and more so in the higher echelons of decision making, many competing views should be discussed and debated before pressing the nuclear button. That did not happen with Demonetisation. With the abrogation of Article 370. Now with this, which will throw an already moribund economy under the bus. The scenes at Anand Vihar bus station will haunt the authorities for a long time. 2. We have changed our public discourse. Anyone who expresses a contrarian view is subjected to ad hominem attacks. Unlikely that in senior level decision making, a diametrically opposed point of view would be expressed, much less considered or acted upon. For India’s poor, both options are equally lethal.
Agree with your view , but the contrasting view must come from people who has some credibility and must be an expert on the subject matter. I have never heard of this writer before. These are fly by night experts. She is so convineently forgetting that despite being low mortality rate what kind of havoc it has already created with older population in Spain / Italy. Just think about Indian slums , the no. of people and the density, COVID-19 has the full potential to become a disaster in India . May be sound harsh but, no Govt. (be it congress or BJP) can take care of 50 crore poor people in India in this kind of scenario. Lets accept that every system has its limitations and some part of population will suffer whether we like or not. Every state and Central govt. are doing their bit to mange the situation
She is a regular in Print. Besides in a democracy different views will be expressed. To agree or disagree is your prerogative.
You idiot . This is about life and death. India healthcare system is worst comparative to Italy, FRance, China, USA. And if we don’t take early precautions, just imagine india like highly dense populated country situation , where 1.3 billion people stay close to each other. And why the hell you are counting here article 370 or demonitisat ion with corona epidemic. If tomorrow govt didn’t lockdown and people will die like Italy , bastard love ke you and the article author will write another article that Hindu nationalist govt. didn’t do any early major to save the people .
Exactly the mentality of know all foreign return NRIs who spread the disease in India
Agenda driven Journalism is a bane of this profession. The good name yearned by so many selfless men & women are going down the drain because of some rotten apples in their midst.
No would take author’s observation with a pinch of salt. As matter of fact she would be called anti Modi and national. Print may even pull down the article. Truth has no place. If she has praised lock down and Modi with few figures to say how serious it is and Modi is saviour etc., she would get huge applause.
If not a ‘draconian’ lockdown then what is it that you suggest the govt should do? Add a solution as well to your article.
All the research you state might be true but a lockdown is the need of the hour. If there is no lockdown the infection will just continue to spread and the ‘relative’ rate of mortality will thus increase as well. Simple maths, just like you mentioned.
Please dont mislead your readers. Just by stating that ‘Views are personal’ doesnt help. You are obviously influencing the thinking of people here. So please take some responsibility when you write something.
I am no BJP supporter or even a political person for that matter. Your article though ‘meaty’ with names and numbers lacks complete common sense.
Do you think the numbers revealed in India are real?
The real numbers are not revealed in order to stem panic. This is required so as to allow us to bounce back sooner or else this would continue for the next 6 months.
Most Doctors seem to maintain that there is no reason why the virus will not spread or cause mortality in India like it has done in Italy. If it does, anything other than total lockdown would have looked a weak step from Govt. With no adequate scientific basis, the article seems slightly premature in its timing.
Which idiot has written this piece
Highly thought provoking.
I am amazed The Print even allowed this kind of article to even get published.
Well made points and suggestions, and important to think this through .
We are still very early into this disease, and we must account for under-reporting. Cases of patients reporting pneumonia and fever must be tested for Covid-19, if not already being done. Also stigma of visiting hospitals, despite the of severity of disease, is a common phenomenon in India – we must therefore give this situation time which would help us glean more accurate information of the situation on the ground.
The R0 for this disease is 2.5-3, which suggests it is more infectious than the flu. Given this fact, the burden on our public healthcare systems is still going to be large, given that a small minority may still need critical care, and this, in absolute numbers, will still put our hospitals under strain.
Death rates for the disease are not well-known, with wide-ranging estimates from Germany to Italy. The data from China may not entirely be reliable. Given this, we will have to build our own dataset, before we make conclusions about patterns/trends and policy prescriptions.
The economic and social consequences of the lockdown must be mitigated through unprecedented fiscal and socioeconomic policies, we must hold our governments to that. The bottom of the pyramid stands to lose a great deal. They also deserve economic support and compassion from rest of society.
The consequences of lifting the lockdown prematurely can result in a vicious cycle, making the political and economic situation worse. The prudent option, therefore, is to monitor the situation aggressively during the lockdown (including ramping up testing, tracing and isolation), and make informed decisions as we get more data. (Experts have advocated for random sampling for testing to make better predictions of population infection rates, which is something we can do, to save cost and time).
Larry Summers couldn’t have put it better – ‘It is not the measures that is hurting the economy , it is the virus.’ To prioritise economics over healthcare would amount to social darwinism.