The new Defence Planning Committee is India’s strongest ever, but is running against time

File photo of Indian Arjun Mark II tank | PTI

The DPC will drive key policy, procurement issues, and will formalise the National Security Advisor’s formidable influence on defence.

The recently announced Defence Planning Committee (DPC) – an overarching panel that will drive strategy, procurement and diplomacy – will be India’s most powerful military body yet. But it will be running against time, as key decisions need to be taken in the next few months.

Though notionally reporting to the defence minister, the high powered body led by National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval formalises the formidable influence the former intelligence bureau chief exerts over defence matters.

Notified this week, the committee has taken a long time to be set up and comes amid growing concern that defence planning and policy has not been a priority area for the government. After all, it is the only big ministry that has seen a change of guard four times; the Army has made strong public statements on the severe crunch of resources; and big procurement and the private industry drive is all but stuck.

From operational oversight to planning

The NSA, who is also advised by the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB), is known to have command oversight in operational matters of national importance. In the early days of 2014-15, when the International Border in the Jammu sector and the Line of Control in Rajouri-Poonch faced heavy cross-border firing, the NSA has been known to directly reach out to area commanders for ground reports, often with advice on how to tackle the situation.

His imprint on the Pathankot operation against terrorists who had infiltrated the airbase, as well as the surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Myanmar is well documented, as has been the hawk’s eye he has been keeping on the situation in Kashmir.

It has been argued that operations – at least the ones that required top level attention – have been within the purview of the NSA and not the defence minister in this government. The DPC – with its mandate of assessing external security risks and defining security priorities – will further consolidate this arrangement.

Other key interventions include his backing of the indigenous fighter jet programme – the Light Combat Aircraft. Insiders say that a strong note sent to the defence ministry late last year focused on the importance of keeping the LCA programme alive and argued how the Air Force’s focus on a ‘single engine fighter jet’ procurement plan could jeopardise the same.

This intervention is believed to have led to India now broad-basing its search for a new fighter jet to several global options, rather than be restricted to the Swedish Gripen or the American F-16 the ‘single engine’ project would have ended up with.

Areas of consideration

Here is a short look at the four broad areas that the DPC will consider, and key priorities in each:

Policy and strategy (assessing risk and defence priorities, new national security strategy)

The key lookout will be the situation along the Line of Control (LoC), which threatens to spin out of control, given the large scale duels that India and Pakistan have entered into in the past three years. The possibility of these escalating to a limited conflict can no longer be termed as ‘remote’. Pressure moves by China on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in support of Pakistan could also be a reality.

Its other mandate – to formulate a national security strategy – will be a more complex task, though the groundwork for this is already believed to be ready.

Planning and capability development (cabinet approval and budgetary support for modernisation)

This mandate will bring the responsibility for major defence procurements – be it from foreign sources or indigenous manufacturers – to the DPC. Key decisions to be taken include judicious allocation of the limited budget to meet priorities. Given the resource crunch, critical decisions need to be taken on the future of contracts like the fifth generation fighter programme, acquisition of an additional aircraft carrier, purchase of the S-400 air defence system, and procurement of armed drones and modern, conventionally-armed stealth submarines.

Defence diplomacy (foreign acquisitions for strategic leverage)

This could prove to be a tricky task, given Russia’s growing annoyance at India blocking key long-term acquisitions from Moscow and the US’s impatience with the slow pace of defence cooperation and acquisition.

While Russia has been making it clear that going slow on deals like the fifth generation fighter jet and the S-400 will have an impact on bilateral ties, the US has been pushing for a showcase defence procurement that will define the growing closeness between the two nations.

Defence manufacturing (indigenisation road map, research and development)

This has been a sore area for the industry. With four years gone by, not a single mega manufacturing project has been awarded to private industry, despite a clear government mandate to encourage Make in India and job creation.

The DPC may need to look at how to implement the strategic partnerships policy that is now at the crucial stage of inviting Indian industry for major manufacturing jobs – submarines, fighter jets, and helicopters.

The DPC also has the right intentions. The only thing that it does not have on its side is time. With the government entering the final year of its term, eyes will be on this first promise in the BJP’s 2014 election manifesto for the defence ministry – “Address the issue of reforms with regards to defence equipment, support services, organisational reforms and other related matters”.