So far, Modi has not indicated who his successor would be, or could be. In fact, Modi does not believe that a successor is needed, at least till 2024.
Even before the third bell is sounded, the impatient and hyper-anxious actors have gathered on stage. The audience is curious and confused. Like in the new-wave theatre movement, the people also participate in the play, and the script is continuously improvised. Indeed, the cast of actors and their roles are still being worked out. The only thing that is certain and known to everyone is the title of the play: ‘Phantom of the Opera-2019’.
The main characters are Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. The dress rehearsal for Rahul Gandhi was held in New Delhi’s mammoth stadium under the auspices of the All India Congress Committee. Of course, Narendra Modi does not have to rehearse. He has been practising his role and even conducting the shows for almost four years now. For Rahul, it is the first direct show. But Modi and his team (nobody knows if there is a team!) have already declared that the ‘Rahul show’ will be a flop show.
Will Rahul Gandhi be able to revamp the 133-year-old Congress party? Will he and his Congress be able to challenge the might of Modi? Or, as Modi has vowed, will India become truly “Congress-mukt”? Will Rahul be the last “dynast”, the last shahazada? The so-called dynasty that began a century ago with patriarch Motilal Nehru is believed to be in terminal decline.
However, the eternal critics of the “dynasty” will continue to say that Priyanka and her children can take charge. Who knows, the “reserve” force of the family, Varun Gandhi, may switch sides and join his “natural” party, distancing himself from his mother. However, the question is not what happens to the “dynasty” or rather the family, but what is the future of the Congress party?
Will the party rise without any member of the Nehru-Gandhi family? Will it become a pan-India party, or will it be a regional party? Or will it merely have a symbolic political presence, like the Russian Communist Party in post-Communist Russia.
But not all the questions and suspense is about Congress alone. There is considerable doubt about the BJP too now, and some uncomfortable questions are already being asked.
It is unlikely that the Congress can be a force to reckon with in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, or in the northeast (except Assam). Some states have already become “Congress-mukt”.
Another question is if Rahul can be an effective coalition-builder. Will there be a UPA -III with strong, reliable partners, and will it be able to form the government? Mistrust of the Congress is widespread. The perception is that the ‘Grand Old Party’ of India often bullies smaller, regional parties and cunningly marginalises them. So UPA-III is not going to be easy. Satraps will not give up their fiefdoms.
The rise of multiple contenders and the splintering of the two big Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu have created an intriguing situation. Neither the NDA nor the UPA can take any party there for granted. Prakash Karat’s stubborn position that the CPI (M) will not join either front keeps Kerala out of any alliance.
Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party has broken away from the NDA, but made it clear that it has no intention to join a Congress-led alliance. Even the YRS Congress has been hedging its bets in Telangana. The Shiv Sena is playing truant.
The BJP must have at least a simple majority on its own (or Amit Shah’s dream figure of 350). Only then can the “Phantom of the Opera” be staged post-election.
The signs of the BJP’s defeat in Rajasthan are written on every wall, and even Gujarat is dicey. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar cannot be taken for granted. For the Congress, these two states are out of bounds. That leaves two large states: Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal. Notwithstanding the dent that the Hindutva forces have made, it is unlikely that the bhadralok will opt for a second round of the Gujarat model in Delhi.
Therefore, the question is not just what happens to Rahul and the Congress, but also what happens to Modi and the BJP. If the BJP gets its own majority under Modi, then we all know who the Prime Minister will be. But if it just emerges as the single largest party and is forced to build a new NDA, will Modi lead? Or would the RSS dump him, just as they dumped Bhishmacharya L.K. Advani on his bed of arrows?
So far, Modi has not indicated who his successor would be, or could be. In fact, Modi does not believe that a successor is needed, at least till 2024. But the question is being discussed in hushed whispers in the RSS quarters. Who after Modi? Names of possible replacements are being quietly floated. Nitin Gadkari’s close relationship with the RSS, and Rajnath Singh’s status as the leader of the largest state are being mentioned. For that, both Gadkari and Rajnath must show good numbers in their respective states.
Therefore, the suspense will remain. Perhaps till some other trick like demonetisation is played by Modi. Or a war-like situation, to create patriotic euphoria. That would surely help Modi. But such dramatic actions do not necessarily have predictable and controllable consequences.
Kumar Ketkar is a Congress nominee for Rajya Sabha.
What exactly Mr Ketkar is saying is that neither the Congress nor the BJP gets to cakewalk in 2019. It may be a difficult climb for the Congress but it may be more difficult for the BJP. Tougher for Modi because he has everything to lose. Rahul Gandhi has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
this is very objective piece by Kumar Ketkar shows how objective as a journalist and analyst that he is , even after becoming a rajya sabha member on congress ticket.
He has raise pertinent questions on succession issue for BJP and very objective and preceptive analysis state by state for 2019 opera that will unfold during next few months
this piece helps readers to understand the emerging trends themselves. and this is a definitive answer to the question whether journalist cum politicians can be clear, objective and indicating future path
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