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Why the new Modi Model is the old Gujarat Model raised to the power of 3 super-bureaucrats

Modi’s new PMO resembles the US President’s Executive Office. It appears like the old Gujarat Model but has talent he trusts from outside the BJP.

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The Modi-Shah-BJP establishment has an aversion to anyone but the faithful using the expression ‘Gujarat Model’ to characterise their methods. We can see where they are coming from. Their critics have trade-marked that expression to mean their post-2002 politics of polarisation.

There is, however, a less contentious manifestation of the Gujarat Model as well: Centralised governance. Watch the latest changes in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), with three of his key aides being elevated to cabinet rank, setting a new precedent.

This is natural progression from the way Modi had run Gujarat. But, for everyone’s comfort, let’s simply call it the Modi Model of Governance. It was unveiled in Gujarat in 2001-02, evolved through his two full terms (2002-12) and two part terms (2001-02, 2012-14), and accompanied him to Delhi. His second term as PM is its reinforced version.

If you are risk-averse, you might wish to borrow that statutory warning from mutual funds: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Such caveats are not available to us political analysts as our published word lives on for public scrutiny. With Modi, however, it has so far been quite safe to apply his past to his future actions. Much can change, but in detail. The fundamentals remain firm.

Here are the five important pillars of this Modi Model:

1. ‘Supremo’ chief executive with total control of the party through trusted lieutenants.

2. Governance through hand-picked civil servants, and retirement won’t come in the way.

3. Mission-mode governance with a few ideas where visible results are possible within one term, to be executed by a few chosen people.

4. Never lose the ideological big picture.

5. Neutralise all opposition, within and outside, through reason, rent, pressure and intrigue (the ancient saam, daam, dand, bhed).

It worked brilliantly in Gujarat, a medium-sized and relatively less diverse state. There were doubts if it would work for all of India. It did threaten to unravel a few times: Demonetisation, some foreign policy setbacks, especially in the neighbourhood, after initial euphoria, growth decline, job losses, and the 2017 Gujarat election near-thing. But in the end, what matters is the bottom line. The 303 there settled it.


Also read: Modi era begins in politics as caste factor fades. Here’s why he won’t be easy to beat


Like all capital cities, Delhi’s first instinct is bureaucratic: Modi had no choice but to elevate his three aides. After he chose former IFS officer S. Jaishankar to be his External Affairs Minister, he was under compulsion to upgrade National Security Adviser and former IPS officer Ajit Doval to avoid an awkward rank-reversal.

Having promoted Doval, in turn, Modi was forced to give parity to Nripendra Misra and P.K. Mishra from the IAS. You should be careful to read too much into these, mere protocol, compulsions. Other non-ministers have been given the cabinet rank in the past, notably the heads of the Planning Commission and Niti Aayog and, under UPA-2, even Nandan Nilekani as the head of the UIDAI.

This explanation fails for three reasons. First, because it is so obvious that, in the Modi world, it is illogical. Second, because it presumes Modi had to make these changes under compulsion. There is nothing on Modi’s record yet that says he is prone to acting under compulsion, definitely not of bureaucratic protocol. Why would he do it now, after winning an enhanced majority? And third, that nothing compelled him to pick Jaishankar in the first place. He did that to a larger plan and the follow-on changes are merely elements of it.

This PMO, accordingly, is resembling the US President’s Executive Office, with the power of key cabinet officers (ministers) exercised from here. The PMO grew in Modi’s first term and controlled the ministries of his focus directly, from foreign affairs to sanitation.

Now, its leaders have grown, to the level of the cabinet ministers they hold to account on their boss’s behalf. So, even the pretence of a Westminster-style cabinet system, where the PM is the first among equals, is over. Think of a particularly hands-on American President running the State and Defense departments through a trusted NSA straddling both, and an equally powerful White House Chief of Staff. Except that, in Modi’s case, he now has two chiefs of staff.

Indira Gandhi invented the position of Principal Secretary in 1971 and appointed P.N. Haksar there. Haksar was followed by V. Shankar under Prime Minister Morarji Desai. The position was then briefly abolished as Charan Singh’s Janata Government detested centralisation. It returned with Mrs Gandhi in 1980 with P.C. Alexander. There was one more difference now. Pre-1977, she still had some powerful ministers in her cabinet, including Jagjivan Ram. Now, she had almost none. The only minister with some power was probably a young Pranab Mukherjee.

This is what comes closest to Modi in his second term, with some differences. First, he doesn’t lead his party directly but through Amit Shah. Second, unlike Mrs Gandhi, whose ideological objective was continuity, his is change, especially in the way Indian secularism has been defined by the Gandhi family. He told us that in his first speech to his party on the day of the results. And third, he has no family or dynasty. In that sense, too, he is comparable with a US President. Not entitled to infinite terms, although not limited to two like him either. After him, there may be another party leader. Not other Modis.


Also read: Under Modi, a resurgent middle India is coming to smash the Left-liberals’ ivory bunkers


A legitimate criticism against Modi’s first government has been its lack of talent. I, too, have fretted about it, describing it as the most talent-averse establishment in independent India. The reason those close to him gave then was, so what if we do not have talent and experience? We will learn. But we aren’t going to win power and gift it to others.

That, in a way, was a repudiation of the Vajpayee school of team-building. He had drawn talent from everywhere. Jaswant Singh was non-RSS, Yashwant Sinha and Rangarajan Kumaramangalam were recent entrants to the BJP, George Fernandes was the first non-BJP, non-Congress minister in the Cabinet Committee of Security in a coalition led by either, and the last so far. Arun Shourie was a powerful change agent who brought the force of his intellect and integrity from outside.

Modi and Shah did the opposite in their first term. They were averse to giving any political space to outsiders. They also had deep distrust of professionals, specialists and technocrats. The fate of the two RBI governors with a formidable academic reputation is evidence.

Critics like us were dismissed as being outdated in our thinking, or unwilling to accept that a government could be run well without faces familiar to Anglicised Delhi elites. By the fourth year, however, as the economy floundered, and after some state election and by-election setbacks, there were signs of change. The later reshuffles saw the lateral entry of retired civil servants, like former IAS officer R.K. Singh and former IFS officer Hardeep Puri.

They’ve both risen in stature. See the induction of Jaishankar at such a high level as a logical progression from there. And ditto for the elevation of the PMO trio. The two programmes closest to Modi’s heart and politics, sanitation-water (combined now), and Ayushman Bharat, are with two empowered former civil servants, Parameswaran Iyer and Indu Bhushan, respectively, brought back from World Bank/ADB and re-employed.

The Modi Model we see now is still the old Gujarat Model. But with an acknowledgement that governing India is more challenging than Gujarat, the talent it needs isn’t all available in the BJP, and he will now reach outside. But only to those he has known and trusted over time within their career services. Keep a close watch in this term on a presidential Prime Minister Modi, governing through his ‘cabinet’ of super-bureaucrats.


Also read: Pracharak Modi: The mask you see, is the man you get


 

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22 COMMENTS

  1. Essentially, the Indian State is retreating to what a few devils believe is right for all of India. Rather like Gandhi, Nehru, Patel, Naiker and Ambedkar: The Gujarat Model is nothing but the PANGOLIN model (Note: PANGOLIN: An enemy of India who believes in inequality under law, exceptions to the rule of law and persecution of some for the benefit of others. At present, the sole purpose of the Indian Republic, Constitutional or otherwise, is to pamper and provide for certain constitutionally preferred sections of society who the British found useful to hold and exploit India at the cost of those who the British hated and persecuted. The Pangolin is a creature that is unique to India and feeds on ants that are known in nature to be industrious and hard working if not quite as fruitful as bees who flee to better climes. (PANGOLIN is an acronym for the Periyar-Ambedkar-Nehru-Gandhi-Other (alien) Religions-Communist Consensus that usurped the British Mantle and has worn it with elan to loot, plunder, and rape India since 1921 and re write History and laws to their exclusive benefit since 1947)

  2. SOS! SOS!
    Mr.Shekhar Gupta! if you are listening, you are responsible for the well being of your employees. Mr. Shivam Vij needs some serious counselling from experts of NIMHANS or NIMS. Please, ensure he gets proper medical attention, before he ends up doing some serious harm to himself.

  3. Shekhar, I don’t know if this is arithmetics or algebra, but consider this:
    1 cube, or 1 raised to the power of 3, is 1
    1/2 cube, or 1/2 raised to the power of 3, is 1/8
    2 cube, or 2 raised to the power of 3, is EIGHT!!

    So, boss, power of 3 means nothing ; it is important what the base number is (1 or 1/2 or 2)

    Modi ji, by his past history of demonetisation and GST is a sub-1 entity. No supporting / advisory power in the shape of “supposedly” brilliant officers will mean anything. In fact, more is their number, more will be the confusion. You will learn to your chagrin that one plus one doesn’t add up to two. If you are trying to tell us that it amounts to ELEVEN, then it only shows your Modi bhakti.

    • In your calculation you have missed one additional factor that is hidden or assumed. In normal arithmetic, calculation are done with decimal base 10 i.e. you have 10 digits (0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9). If this base changes to 2 or 4 or 8 or 16, the result would be very different if read in decimal 10 base.

      In base 2 arithmetic 1+1 =10. If you read this in base 10 arithmetic, 1+1 = 2.

      This deception is called chemistry and this deception is caused by operator + that looks same but behaves very differently.

  4. I have no doubt that Modi has fully devoted his life for public service. He has nothing else to bother about except the welfare of people of India. However, the sad part is that a large number of left intellectuals have become a bysidestander and have not bothered to get the best out of Modi’s model of development. Instead they continue to engage in irrelevant debates knowing fully that those debates have no place in Modi’s development model. They should not have wasted their intellect for pulling down Modi. Agree or disagree with Modi’s approach, he is the leader of India for next five years and perhaps for another five years. Except negative activism, Modi’s critics have nothing better to offer.

  5. Shekhar ji, this article would have been more valuable if you had elaborated on how the various governance models in the past had worked out in terms of delivering outcomes. Your strength is in-depth historical analysis, which was a bit lacking in this article. Good read, nonetheless. Thanks.

    • Modi’s all decisions and actions are micro analyzed by left intellectuals just to find faults (imaginary or real). Had their analysis focused on doing better, we should not be debating over GDP growth rate figures but debating on how to grow at double digit figures..

  6. One will pray for 8% growth – as per the old series / methodology – by the end of the second term. That will bring life giving rains to many parched fields.

  7. Prof PK Sharma, Freelance Journalist, Barnala (Punjab)

    After going through this week’s ” National Interest” column, I am tempted to suggest to you sir, that for the time
    being it must be assigned the title ” National Chess ”

    Mr. Arindam Mukherjee’s illustration spontaneously bears testimony to this fact !

    Now I do not know for how long this political game of “National Chess” that started in May, 2014 is going to last ?
    But I am pretty sure that it is certainly not in the National Interests at all !

    In this column your assertion “….. after winning enhanced majority ” defies logic and truth.

    The brazen and blatant violation of the Election Commission of India’s Model Code of Conduct by two top
    “Kaamdaars” now virtually turning “Naamdars ” cannot be called “winning enhanced majority ” but it is
    “manipulating enhanced majority ” that too courtesy -the Election Commission of India !

    Then I shall like to ask,” Has anyone responsible for February 14 Pulwama Suicide Bomb Assault Mishap resulting
    in death of 44 CRPF personnel ‘s grim lapse or blunder detected what to talk of taken to task ? Has our worthy
    National Security Advisor Mr Ajit Doval not been elevated with Cabinet Rank for the same ?

    Have those in the list of fiscal defaulters of NPAs submitted to the PMO by Dr.Raghuram Rajan, former Governor Reserve
    Bank of India really been dealt with according to the Law of the Land ? Have the two bigwigs in the PMO too not been
    decorated with feathers in their caps for their efficiency and smartness now during NDA-II ?

    Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi ,Chairperson of the Parliament’s Estimates Committee in NDA-I must now be repenting in his
    heart of hearts for making a hue and cry and expressing his grave concerns over NPAs ! May be, had he kept mum then, he
    too have been rewarded like the PMO’s bigwigs ?

    Again, those hushing up and brushing TRUTH under the carpet will be the gainers may be only in the ranks
    as in the old but now in the new set up and arrangement too that is NDA-II !

    The party and individuals again will be above the NATION in the times to follow !

    Thus the era of party and individuals above the Nation at present reigns supreme !

    Prof PK Sharma, Freelance Journalist
    Pom Anm Nest,Barnala (Punjab)

    • That part of your rant relating to NPAs of banks – the list of defaulters was drawn up by Gov Urijit Patel and these defaulters were sent for bankruptcy proceedings in June 2017 under the newly enacted Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code.

      Rajan did nothing to arrest NPAs of banks, merely passed his time in giving interviews on every topic and trying to carefully craft a super image for himself.

      • Rajan was propped up by Congress just like the award-wapasi gang. There is no simple solution in India. A Thatcherite will lose elections, and a populist can just hope to keep the head above water. Someone in their article – perhaps on this website – had very nicely summed it up: In Indian elections there is a very weak linkage between politics and economics.

        Western economies truly opened up in 1970s and 80s with large scale deregulation. Indira Gandhi and Margaret Thatcher were contemporaries, but the former wasn’t influenced by economic events unfolding in the UK at that time. Today, just like population control, no politician has the courage to bite the bullet of pure free market, which, with rules, is the most efficient model. Also, interest rate reduction alienates the middle class and senior citizens, interest rate hike impinges on economic growth. Indians cannot decide whether they want the path of free market or pure socialist. And talking about rules, even if these are made, there are enough corrupt business people capable of putting wool over the bankers’ and government’s eyes.

        • Is it a given that a Thatcherite will lose in India, considering that economic freedom/free market economics has never been tried or implemented with any conviction here. Like you mentioned no politician has/had the courage to bite the bullet. Who knows if somebody musters up the courage, and sells it well , to the voters free market economics may become winning politics. Till it is tried out we really don’t know how it will pan out.

    • From your language I can safely say that you are a political activist bearing the mask of a journalist. You are not alone. Now a days journalism is a safe hideout for political activists and criminals also. People know when to ignore your types.

      • Mr.Dev,
        Ironically, at your wits end you seem to be quite perturbed running short of ideas and logic.
        I shall like you to look within your ownself before casting aspersions on anyone !

        While reacting to my comments when you could not control yourself and ignore me how can
        you boast making tall and exaggerated claims about other people?

        Think a thousand times before you speak and leap !

        Prof PK Sharma, Freelance Journalist
        Pom Anm Nest,Barnala (Punjab)

  8. India is at crossroads. It is also maturing. It can be safely assumed that’s a large section of electorate wanted to give a fair second chance to Modi after testing him for 5 years for multiple reasons. Modi is NOT India, and it is a great hope that he is aware of this fact. What’s important right now is results which improve the lives of ordinary citizens. And what do most poor citizens want except low food inflation, clean drinking water and a small window of opportunity to apply themselves so that they can prosper. What’s wrong if Modi adopts the American system of governance or the Indian version of ‘The American Dream’ as long as it delivers results?

  9. The most glaring omission by Shekhar (especially as he keeps going back and forth to US analogies) is any mention of the first NAC by Sonia/ Congress. This would perhaps be akin to be an attempt at institutionalising opinion formers/ lobbyists/ entitled Lutyen lot in a body so that they could openly confer and reinforce each others ideas and pet schemes and foibles. With Governmental perks to boot. In other words almost akin to the Beltway lot out of Washington DC. But all of us, Modi included, have to cope with human frailty, taking the case of Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj as examples. So, reinforcement need to be ready.

  10. The welcome trend is willingness to look forward and accmodate talent beyond political spectrum.This approach should extend t even to committees and appointments in other ministies.Professional talent is available even amomng Non-left but who are not from Sangh Parivar. PM should not hesitate to drag such talent to Government. It will also enable him to Modernise his own party and also get better cohesion in Governments woking.

  11. You can write many this kind of pieces admiring Modi Magic.
    Go ahead . You need to protect your investments.
    Good luck

    • Any great counter argument Ms Gita? Any incisive evaluation of whether this is right or wrong? What if it works for the overall benefit of all sections?

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