New Delhi: In a notable departure from previous concerns regarding overpopulation, India is currently facing a new challenge—declining birth rates. Several Indian states, including Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, have started to voice concerns regarding their shrinking populations. Chief Ministers such as M.K. Stalin and N. Chandrababu Naidu have proposed the necessity of increasing childbirth rates, with Naidu suggesting incentives to encourage women to have more children.
This situation represents a significant reversal from the 1970s when India implemented aggressive family planning campaigns aimed at mitigating the anticipated “population bomb”.
Currently, 31 out of 36 Indian states and Union territories report fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1, a trend that poses a risk of exacerbating the country’s ageing population.
With a rising elderly population and declining birth rates, India faces the potential for a demographic imbalance, leading to a scenario where the working-age population may be insufficient to sustain the increasing number of dependents. By 2026, the number of Indians aged above 60 is anticipated to exceed those aged below 15, contributing to the strain on the economy.
The political implications are also considerable. Southern states, which are experiencing rapid ageing, are concerned that a future parliamentary delimitation—determined by population—may transfer political power to northern states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where birth rates continue to be higher.
In Episode 1538 of #CutTheClutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta analyses the depopulation phenomenon, the political implications of India’s falling fertility rates and the ageing population crisis.
Also read: CMs raise issue of ‘demographic management’ during NITI Aayog meeting chaired by Modi