Bengaluru: The electorate of Tamil Nadu voted differently in the parliamentary elections and the assembly bypolls conducted simultaneously, giving a second lease of life to Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
In the parliamentary polls, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and its allies, including the Congress and the Left parties, swept the state, winning 37 of the 38 seats up for grabs after the polls in Vellore were cancelled due to reports of money being abused.
However, the AIADMK won nine of the 22 assembly seats where bypolls were held, helping it maintain a five-seat majority with 122 seats in the 234-member house. The AIADMK had been reduced to 113, but Palaniswami’s government had survived due to the strength of the House being reduced to 213 due to defections and members’ passing.
The DMK, meanwhile, bagged the other 13 seats, and naturally, seemed quite upbeat about its performance.
Significance of these polls
This is the first time that both the major Dravidian parties were fighting elections since their transcendent leaders, J. Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK and M. Karunanidhi of the DMK, died in 2016 and 2018 respectively.
In this scenario, political analysts say Palaniswami passed a big test, with voters placing faith in his ability to govern without Jayalalithaa. Some have even said the AIADMK has come of age.
The influence of the group led by Jayalalithaa’s close aide V.K. Sasikala or her nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran has been thwarted for now, but not banished.
How AIADMK managed it
When the AIADMK realised its government was on the verge of collapse if the DMK did well in the state, as predicted by most opinion polls, it came up with a back-up plan.
A couple of weeks before the polls, assembly Speaker C. Dhanapal issued show-cause notices to the three MLAs who had openly pledged their allegiance to the rebel group led by Dhinakaran, asking why action should not be taken against them for “anti-party” activities. This strategy worked, and the MLAs remained in Palaniswami’s fold.
“The three dissident MLAs and three other Independent legislators who had openly supported Dhinakaran will now prefer to remain within the AIADMK, but Dhinakaran & Co. will continue their effort to woo MLAs,” an AIADMK leader told ThePrint on the condition of anonymity.
The job is not finished. The DMK is now within touching distance of the AIADMK with 110 MLAs, so it’s not impossible that AIADMK members could switch sides.
However, the fact that the party is now officially part of the BJP-led NDA, which is ruling at the Centre, it might help the AIADMK keep its flock together.
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