Worried about Covid strain we have, it’s highly infectious, says Kerala chief secretary

Kerala Chief Secretary Dr Vishwas Mehta says samples were sent to ICMR and results are awaited, suspects strain came from Maharashtra. Kerala has reported 52,566 Covid cases between 28 September and 2 October.

Kerala Chief Secretary Dr Vishwas Mehta | Photo: Praveen Jain | ThePrint

Thiruvananthapuram: In the throes of a virulent “second wave” of Covid-19, the Kerala government suspects that it may be dealing with a different strain of the SARS-CoV2 virus that is highly infectious.

In an exclusive interview to ThePrint, Kerala Chief Secretary Dr Vishwas Mehta said the state has sent samples to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and is awaiting the results.

“It’s not the numbers I am worried about…What’s worrisome is the strain of the virus,” he said.

“When we tried to find out (we found) infectivity is large and we have asked the Government of India. That need not mean that fatality is large but it is spreading faster than what we expected. One of the indicators of that is the test positivity that is higher than the national average. Ours is 13 per cent while nationally it is about 8 per cent. Though that said, it is true there are doubts about how correct data from some states is, but our data is correct.”

As of 4 October, Kerala had recorded a total of 2,29,886 cases but 52,566 of these were reported between 28 September and 2 October alone.

At the end of the first wave in May, the state had been left with just 14 cases and two casualties, despite having received India’s first Covid-19 case on 30 January.

But Dr Mehta said the state never made efforts to find out about the strain during the first wave when cases came in from all over — Italy, the Middle-East and China.

The ICMR had in April stated that there are three different strains of the virus in India principally from these three different parts of the world.

“During the first wave we never knew the strain. They were imported cases and nobody tried to find out,” the chief secretary said. “There are several strains of viruses but perhaps this one has come from the Maharashtra side. It can get more virulent,” says the chief secretary.

‘Don’t know when the peak is’

Sifting through a stack of papers on his desk — Covid reports from the districts, projections and comparisons — Dr Mehta says that his other problem is that there is no clarity on whether this is the peak or whether there is one further away.

“(We are) not understanding the peak…when it will come,” he said. “It’s like a plateau. I have been doing these projections since March. The national media was celebrating but I had said there is nothing to celebrate, it is not over yet. I had told the CM also.”

He, however, said the state is prepared. The daily report from the Covid first-line treatment centres show that occupancy in the first-level centres is about 57.5 per cent and in the other higher level centres where there are facilities such as oxygen and ICUs, the occupancy is 26.4 per cent.

“We have been planning for long. We do not allow patients to pile up; we immediately shift them to the next level to free up space,” he explains.

‘Kerala’s healthcare is 15-20 years ahead of others’

Dr Mehta takes strong exception to the line that Kerala “was” the Covid poster child of India.

“We are the sentinels as far as Covid is concerned. Nobody knew anything but we fell back on the Nipah protocols from two years ago,” he said. “Our advantage was that we have a very robust health infrastructure where Kerala is 15-20 years ahead of everybody else. I know it because I was health secretary for four years. I also know it because I was also in the health ministry where I knew what was happening everywhere else.”

The problem, he says, happened after opening up when Kerala’s reputation as a “safe haven” had people from abroad and from other states of India wanting to come back home.

There were 33 lakh non-resident Keralites living abroad, of whom 22 lakh in the Gulf countries alone who wanted to come back because the disease had started spreading there, he said.

“Many of them were infected, dying. Kerala, because it was a safe haven, people wanted to come back. People from Kerala settled in Mumbai, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu started coming here thinking the state is safe,” the chief secretary said.

“We had no choice, can’t say ‘no’ to our own people. But we wanted more control, maybe to get people tested before they flew. Why not ensure only people with a negative certificate come. But then the Vande Bharat (trains and flights) started, there was nothing we could do. There was a lot of pressure on us.”

According to Dr Mehta, until June-July, almost 95 per cent of Kerala’s cases were imported from the Gulf and from other Indian states as thousands returned home by train, roads and flights. The Covid jagrutha portal was created to monitor this influx.

Kerala’s strength, he says, was the early activation of ward-level committees with local volunteers, police and self-help groups that had been trained for ground-level surveillance. “But the contact cases kept increasing until in August, we had to declare community transmission,” he said. But the fact still remains that Kerala’s case fatality rate at 0.3 per cent is way lower than the national average of 1.5 per cent.

‘15 per cent tests using RT PCR’

Dr Mehta said that just about 15 per cent of the 50,000-60,000 tests Kerala conducts every day are RT PCR tests.

“About 15 per cent of our tests are using RT PCR. It is a confirmatory test but the problem is it takes time to get results,” he said.

“Antigen is fast. If you have to deal with large numbers, you need to rely on antigen tests. There are chances of false negatives but it’s okay. If the person is positive he will try to exercise restraint, especially in a literate society like Kerala. He will isolate himself and that is important.”

‘Lockdown is not an option’

While Indian figures show a far higher percentage of deaths in younger people and those without comorbidities, in Kerala, 85 per cent of the deaths are in senior citizens and 98 per cent are in people with comorbidities.

For suspected deaths, a swab is taken and the body allowed to be cremated but when the results come, Mehta says the number is diligently added to the total “unlike in some states”.

“We have to live with this…lockdown is not an option. That is why we have imposed Section 144 and mobilised sectoral magistrates,” he said. “Gazetted officers are trained to go around in some areas and close down shops where they see violations. In a place where five shops are closed the message is loud and clear. But obviously we can’t do this in the entire state.”