New Delhi: India’s effective reproduction rate (R) has further increased to 0.97 from 0.88 last week, as several states in the Northeast see an increase in active cases.
The R value — an indicator of how quickly the infection is spreading — describes how many people, on average, get infected from one Covid positive person. The pandemic can only come to an end if the figure is sustained under 1.
According to Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, the situation in Kerala — the state with the highest number of active cases at present — is the most worrying after its R increased to 1.10 from 1 last week.
Another area of concern are states in the Northeast as most of them registered infection rates over 1 this week.
Mizoram has the highest R among states with the highest active cases. The R in the state increased to 1.27 from 0.86 this week. This is followed by Manipur, where R was slightly over 1 last week but has now increased to 1.24.
Tripura also saw an increase of R to 1.17 from nearly 1 last week. In Arunachal Pradesh, the value was 1.14 last week but has increased to 1.15. For Sikkim, R increased to 1.20 this week from 0.88. Similarly, the R in Nagaland increased to 1.1 from 0.87 last week.
Meghalaya also saw a rise in its R value from 0.92 to 1.08.
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Other states with high active cases
All other states with high active case burdens continue to have R below 1 but several of them are showing a rising trend.
For example, while Delhi’s R was 0.66 last week, it increased to 0.84 this week. In Chhattisgarh, R increased from 0.88 to 0.92 this week.
For Karnataka, R increased to 0.86 this week from last week’s 0.56. In Telangana, it increased to 0.99 from 0.85.
“Fortunately, none of the major cities seem to have R over 1 at the moment, although the values are around 0.9 or higher,” Sinha said.
Bengaluru’s R rose to 0.95 this week from 0.92 while in Chennai the value increased from 0.63 to close to 1.
Pune and Mumbai both also have R values close to 1. In Kolkata, R is now 0.91, which is an increase from 0.80 last week.
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