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Finally some good news from Bengaluru: Covid trends show decline after topping all metros

The city reported 3,992 cases Monday — highest among five Indian metros. Experts say this may not be a cause for concern, noting the decline in cases and demand for beds.

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Bengaluru: In the past week, Bengaluru has been reporting the highest number of new cases among the five major Indian metropolitan cities, including Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata and Chennai. 

On Monday, the city reported 3,992 cases — highest among the five. This was also reflected in the test positivity rate, which although on the decline, was reported at 9.03 per cent, as indicated by the daily Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) Covid-19 War Room Bulletin.

The test positivity rate is calculated as the proportion of positives among the samples tested, and it signals if enough tests are being conducted. 

Experts from the city, including those who are part of panels set up to assist the administration in Covid management, however, indicated that the numbers may not be a cause for concern, noting the decline in cases and demand for hospital beds. 

“For the last one week, cases have been dropping. It is now showing a declining trend. The same thing had happened in other cities also. In Delhi and Mumbai, it had gone up and started coming down. We are seeing that pattern in Bangalore even now,” said Dr Manjunath C.N., who is also the nodal officer for testing and state Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC).


Also read: Nearly 12 crore Covid vaccine doses will be available to states, UTs in June, says Modi govt


What the numbers say

Like many other cities around the country, at the peak of the second wave (in the early part of this month), the tide of hospitalisations had overwhelmed the city’s health infrastructure. Several hospitals had also faced an acute shortage of oxygen at the time.  

Three weeks on, cases are on the decline — but still high when compared to other metros.

According to the numbers from various city and state bulletins, Bengaluru reported the highest number of positive cases in a day, deaths in a day, and total active cases Monday. As on 31 May, the total number of active cases in the city was reported at 1,46,043 and the number of deaths in 24 hours was reported at 242. 

Bengaluru was followed by Chennai, which reported 2,596 cases, 91 deaths, and 33,922 total active cases. Kolkata reported 1,324 cases, 28 deaths, and 12,104 total active cases. 

While Mumbai reported 676 cases, 29 deaths, and 22,390 total active cases, Delhi reported even fewer cases at 648, 11,040 total active cases, and 86 deaths.

Graphic: Soham Sen/ThePrint
Graphic: Soham Sen/ThePrint
Graphic: Soham Sen/ThePrint
Graphic: Soham Sen/ThePrint
Graphic: Soham Sen/ThePrint
Graphic: Soham Sen/ThePrint

Cities have own trajectory

Experts ThePrint spoke to, however, said each city is following its own trajectory. 

“Mumbai started its wave at least two-three weeks ahead of us. The cases have now fallen, hospitals are shutting wards, doctors are much free right now. Even if you see the first wave, Mumbai started ahead of us and came down slower than us,” said Dr Ravindra Mehta, senior pulmonologist, Apollo Hospital, and member of the BBMP’s Covid-19 task force committee.

According to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC)’s daily Covid bulletin, the surge began at the beginning of March and the city saw its peak in the third week of April.

Delhi’s numbers indicate that the surge started at the end of March. The city witnessed its peak in the end of April. Meanwhile, Bengaluru saw cases rising around 10 April. The numbers peaked about a month later between 5-9 May. 

Graphic: Ramandeep Kaur/ThePrint
Graphic: Ramandeep Kaur/ThePrint

 

“The trend we see now is for the better, cases are coming down, the active caseload is coming down. Deaths, however, aren’t matching this,” said Vice-Chancellor of Rajiv Gandhi University of Health Sciences, Dr S. Sacchidanand, and chairman of Clinical Subject Experts Committee. 

“The deaths that we are seeing are of people who had been infected 2-3 weeks earlier, so it won’t be possible to compare the death rate with infectivity rate,” he added.

The experts also pointed out that the demand for beds has decreased. The 31 May bulletin noted that of the total 16,740 beds, 10,521 beds were available — including 7,022 general beds, 3,459 High Dependency Units (HDU), 23 ICU beds, and 17 ICU-V (Ventilator) beds.


Also read: Even a simple surgical mask can prevent spread of Covid, German study says


Lapses by government

While the trajectory of the surge in Covid cases in Bengaluru might have differed, some of the experts also pointed to certain lapses by the government in the past month.

“When the surge happened there were no fine-tuned mechanisms available to take care of the patients,” said Dr Giridhara Babu, an epidemiologist at the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), Bengaluru.

Babu said the triage centres, set up to prevent overcrowding in hospitals, had been implemented a little late, and the strict checking of home isolation patients kicked in only later.

Dr Manjunath added: “That is true, we came across cases where some people had died when isolating at home. So the home monitoring mechanism was strengthened… to catch any early sign of deterioration.”

Meanwhile, Mehta said the “rapid upswing and downswing of the wave” meant that plans had to be implemented immediately to address the situation. He also noted that in addition to the challenges, the city had also faced a shortage of testing kits. 

“It’s tough to say [whether the administration here has done well because] no one has done very well, it is very simple. The question is that ultimately did people get hospital beds, did they get the care they were supposed to get. The answer to that is quite evident for most parts of the country,” he said.


Also read: Unnao residents say over 50 bodies seen floating at Buxar Ghat in 2 days, officials deny claim


 

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