New Delhi: As Delhi crossed the 6,000-mark in Covid deaths Sunday, government data analysed by ThePrint showed that the national capital’s death rate has only been rising.
Delhi’s 10-day average death rate — the average of daily deaths over 10 days — has almost doubled in the last month. Between 18 September and 18 October, Delhi’s 10-day average increased to 1.18 per cent from 0.69 per cent.
The daily death toll, however, has been fluctuating between 30-48 deaths, slipping below the 30 deaths mark only on four days.
As of 18 October, Delhi, in total, recorded 6,009 deaths and 3,01,716 recoveries of the 3,31,017 Covid-19 cases so far.
ThePrint reached Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain and the Director General Health Services Dr Nutan Mundeja via phone and email for a comment, but there was no response until the time of publishing this report.
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Deaths on the rise
According to the health bulletins released by the Delhi government, the 10-day average death rate has been rising in the past month.
Data showed that the average rate increased steadily between 18 September and 18 October. Here’s a look at the week on week data:
However, in terms of daily deaths, the national capital recorded fluctuations in the same period.
Daily deaths hovered between 30-48, with the number slipping below 30 only on four days — 25 September, 15, 16 and 18 October.
Daily cases on the slide
While the death toll has been increasing, daily cases have registered a decline in the same period. The tally fell to 3,299 on 18 October from 4,127 on 18 September.
Earlier this month, on 6 October, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal pointed to this trend and said Delhi appeared to have passed a second peak of Covid-19 cases.
On 29 September, Health Minister Jain said that despite the high case load recorded that month, the death rate was just one-third of that recorded in June, when cases last peaked.
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Winter could make matters worse
According to doctors ThePrint spoke to, the increasing death rate reflects the higher number of elderly population getting infected.
“Those who are dying are those with comorbidities and belong to (the) elderly age group. Even in terms of hospitalisations, we are only advising admission in cases where oxygen levels have dropped below 94 or the individual has comorbidities or belongs to the vulnerable age group,” said Dr B.L. Sherwal, director at the Delhi government-run Rajiv Gandhi Super Specialty Hospital.
The onset of winter is expected to only make matters worse for such vulnerable groups, which is already being reflected in the death rate.
“As winter approaches and with the pollution levels rising, vulnerable groups which were protected earlier are now even more susceptible. They are getting exposed to the virus and (there are) more deaths,” said Professor N.N. Mathur, director at the central government-run Lady Hardinge Hospital.
However, doctors at private hospitals said Delhi needn’t be very concerned given that the majority of deaths are of critical patients coming from other states.
“At least 40 per cent of our patients are from neighbouring states like UP, Haryana and even Bihar. Very sick patients are coming from outside often with pneumonia and they are dying here in Delhi. Otherwise, the situation in Delhi is not worrisome as the daily cases are decreasing,” said Dr S.P. Byotra, chairman, department of medicine, Sir Gangaram Hospital.
Also read: Doctors warn of Delhi Covid spike as pollution levels rise & temperature begins to drop