New Delhi: India’s R value, which estimates the rate of transmission of a disease, has fallen this week to its lowest ever, but the 75,760 cases that were reported in the last 24 hours — the highest till date — are a dampener.
Casualties have also crossed 1,000, for the second day in a row, even though the positivity rate has remained constant.
R Value
The R value estimates how many people each Covid infected person is likely to spread the disease to. India’s 1.04 this week is its lowest ever rate of transmission. However, it is only when it dips below 1 that there is reason to cheer. Some high burden states like Tamil
Nadu are now showing signs of getting there.
Active cases
A quarter of India’s total disease burden is of active cases — people who are either recovering at home under medical supervision or are admitted to hospitals. Of the latter, 2.70 per cent patients are on oxygen support, 1.92 per cent are in ICU and 0.29 per cent are on ventilators. Among the active cases are also several officials from the health ministry.
Number of deaths
For the second successive day, the daily casualties crossed 1,000 Thursday, taking the total Covid toll to 60,472 and the case fatality rate to 1.83 per cent. The latter number has been on a constant downward trajectory, but this is also partly because of the rising daily cases.
Mortality rate
The relative positions of the states on this graph have remained unchanged for some time now though almost all the bars are contracting. This is because the number of cases in most states are on the upswing despite lockdowns and containment measures and periodic visits from the Centre to “hand-hold” efforts. An e-ICU at AIIMS Delhi is also helping states reduce mortality.
Daily tests
In the last 24 hours, 9,24,998 samples were tested across the country. This is an increase of about a lakh over yesterday’s number (8,23,992) that again was about a lakh less than the tests done Monday. India is capable of testing 10 lakh (1 million) samples a day. That figure was achieved last Saturday.
Positivity rate
Despite the record high in positive cases, the increase in testing has ensured that the positivity rate has stayed constant at 8.1 per cent. This rate is a measure of whether testing has kept pace with the rate of spread of the disease. The ideal rate according to the WHO guidelines is 5 per cent.
Recovered cases
In the last 24 hours, 56,013 people have been discharged, taking the total number of recovered patients to 25,23,771. This means that more than three quarters of India’s total Covid burden now comprises recovered patients. However, there are now concerns about post Covid symptoms in recovered patients and a committee in the ministry of health is in the process of preparing a guidance document.
Total cases
The total cases in the country currently stand at 33,10,234. In the last 24 hours, 75,760 new positive cases were reported. This is yet another daily high coming at a time it appeared that the daily numbers were beginning to stabilise a little. India has been reporting the highest number of daily cases globally for some time now.
High burden states
The total cases in Maharashtra currently stand at 7,18,711, of which 14,888 cases were reported in the last 24 hours. The doubling time is 37 days, more than the national average or 32 days.
Karnataka has a case fatality rate of 1.70 per cent and a growth rate of 2.68 per cent. The state is still growing at a faster pace than the country as a whole. The total cases in the state are at 3,00,406.
Andhra Pradesh recorded 10,830 cases and 81 deaths in the last 24 hours, taking its total Covid disease burden to 3,82,469. The case fatality rate continues to be below 1.
Tamil Nadu’s disease burden is inching closer to the 4-lakh mark, with 5,958 cases and 118 deaths being reported in the last 24 hours. The doubling time is almost 45 days and the case fatality rate is 1.72 per cent.
Uttar Pradesh reported 5,640 cases and 82 deaths in the last 24 hours. It has a doubling time of close to 26 days and the case fatality rate is 1.55 per cent.
Tests and positive cases
In the last 24 hours, Uttar Pradesh tested 1,44,802 samples, followed by Tamil Nadu, which tested 73,631 samples. In Maharashtra, testing dipped a little, according to the state government, because of the ongoing Ganesh festival. Andhra Pradesh, which had been the leader among the high burden states in testing until a few weeks ago, has now fallen.