New Delhi: The results of the West Bengal elections have the global media stumped as conversations about the impact of the BJP’s victory in the state continue. Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Vignesh Radhakrishnan, and Shruti Srivastava of Bloomberg bring data to these analysis, that suggests growing seat-level polarisation in West Bengal.
“Modi’s breakthrough victory last week in a West Bengal election, as well as losses for incumbents in the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, left his opponents in tatters and extended the reach of his Bharatiya Janata Party beyond its northern strongholds,” the report says.
Bloomberg’s data analysis also showed that the BJP is winning state elections “with a playbook aimed at restoring the BJP’s parliamentary majority during a national vote due by mid-2029”.
The report notes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tried to consolidate Hindu votes since 2014 across caste lines. This seemed to reverse in 2024, when the Opposition campaigned on the electoral plank of the caste census.
However, the party’s string of victories in Bihar, Haryana, Delhi, Maharashtra, and now West Bengal “showed that his bigger vision of uniting the Hindu vote still remains broadly on track”.
“The analysis found that the BJP’s gains weren’t evenly spread across the state, rather clustered in majority-Hindu constituencies where it was already relatively strong.”
“While India doesn’t release voter data based on religion, a Bloomberg analysis of constituency results shows the BJP is steadily fortifying its hold over voting districts with higher Hindu populations in West Bengal, accelerating a trend first seen in a 2021 state election. At the same time, the analysis shows constituencies with larger Muslim populations saw votes spread across multiple candidates, preventing any single opposition party from emerging as the main alternative,” says the report.
The BJP’s victory also gives Modi momentum to “revive politically sensitive economic reforms aimed at attracting more manufacturers such as Apple Inc., part of his efforts to turn India into a developed nation by 2047”.
‘A one-party India’
Alex Travelli of The New York Times writes about what happens to the “Idea of India” now that the BJP has dominated this election season.
“Whether by fair means or foul, the B.J.P. has become an election-winning machine. Last year, estimates suggest it raised ten times more money than all of its opponents combined,” he writes.
He refers to Jawaharlal Nehru’s “Idea of India”, explaining that it was the ideal of political pluralism to match the country’s diversity.
“Nowadays, however, India’s surviving smaller parties are dwindling. Across the country, they’re being replaced by an electoral juggernaut focused on building an orthodox Hindu nation, led by an organization that defines India in terms of a cultural majority.”
When Modi had first campaigned in 2014, he had promised not just to defeat Congress, but to eliminate it entirely. “He pretty much succeeded.”
Mukesh Ambani’s ‘biggest gamble yet’
The Economist writes about billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s biggest gamble yet and the Reliance group’s future.
In what the column calls “Ambani Intelligence”, Reliance is now trying to make it big in Artificial Intelligence. In 2023, Reliance announced a partnership with the chip giant Nvidia to build an AI trained on Indian languages.
“The effort has been gathering pace since last August, with the launch of Reliance Intelligence, an AI-focused subsidiary. Meta, an American social-media giant, took a roughly one-third stake in the business in December.”
Reliance’s ambition, the column adds, is to make AI cheap and accessible like Jio. But the biggest question that stands in the way is: will Reliance be able to become more than an infrastructure provider for AI?
Ambani seeks to transform his conglomerate into a tech company. “That is a long way off. A venture capitalist in Bangalore reckons it will struggle to attract top developers to its AI venture. The hierarchical management that suits refineries, retail chains and telecoms operations may be less suitable for activities that depend on scarce talent and a tolerance for failure.”
Moreover, concerns about succession remain. While Ambani has already handed over separate domains to each of his children, all of Reliance’s big decisions still pass through him.
“Mr Ambani has also cultivated strong ties with India’s politicians—a vital asset, and one that may not transfer to his offspring. For now, though, Mr Ambani is still in charge. And as long as he is, investors seem willing to believe that one more giant wager will pay off.”
‘IPL faces slower run rate’
Meanwhile, Chris Kay of the Financial Times writes of signs emerging that Indian Premier League “commercial run rate is beginning to taper”.
“The IPL transformed cricket’s flagging economics and entrenched India’s global political dominance of the game. It blends Bollywood spectacle with American-style sports promotion and branding, complete with cheerleaders and stadium-splitting soundtracks. The league remains omnipresent in India.”
Kay highlights that while revenues for IPL media rights have risen sixfold since 2008, consultancy Media Partners Asia has predicted “the next auction for the five-year broadcast and streaming rights will remain broadly flat at $5.4bn.”
According to an Indian consultancy, “the potential lack of auction fever, alongside regulatory crackdowns on advertising by cryptocurrency and online gaming groups, has stumped the IPL’s ecosystem.”
The market dynamics that fuelled the previous boom have vanished, according to the report.
“In 2022, Viacom18 — backed by Ambani’s Reliance Industries — and Disney’s Star India fought a fierce bidding war for the IPL rights. That rivalry no longer exists after the rivals merged, with few expecting serious interest from other streamers such as Amazon or Netflix.”
(Edited by Ajeet Tiwari)
Also Read: Global media tracks BJP’s surging influence, future of regional politics & exit of ‘bad ruler’ in WB