Kozhikode: Former National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon ended his session on ‘geopolitics in Asia’ at the Kerala Literature Festival by thanking god for his retirement.
“I have no idea and I have nothing to do with it. It’s a wonderful thing about retirement,” he said when an audience member asked him about the BJP’s PM face in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
But career diplomats like Menon never take their finger off the pulse. On stage and in an interview with ThePrint, he spoke about India’s equations with the US, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and more.
“If you look west of India, you see weak state structures and all kinds of powerful non-state actors. But if you look east, the states run the way that political science tells you it would run. So the traditional tools of diplomacy and statecraft work there. But in the West, you have to deal with what or who you find,” he said.
One state that doesn’t work like the rest is Pakistan and that is because there are so many versions of the country—the Army, the politicians, and now Imran Khan’s PTI. Menon is of the opinion that India has the best track record in terms of the Army.
“They’re organised and have a strong instinct for self-preservation. I know it’s politically incorrect to say this but having the Army is not so bad for us. Even now, the ceasefire is holding,” he said.
On the other side of the fence, he is nervous but optimistic about Bangladesh. His fear comes from the fact that the current situation is not just a coup or a readjustment. “It’s a revolution. By nature it’s unpredictable. We don’t know who actually runs Bangladesh,” he said.
But he falls back on the comfort that our relationship with the country is not just based on the interaction between capitals but on the interest of people on both sides of the border.
“It’s unfair to expect stability or clarity from them now. But India should do the right thing and continue the good we have been doing. Whether it’s trade, allowing travel, the usage of the inland water transport system, or providing medical help.”
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Having worked closely with India’s intelligence agencies, Menon was amazed when he heard about former R&AW agent Vikash Yadav being labelled a rogue element. Yadav was accused by the US of hatching an assassination plot against Sikh radical Gurpatwant Singh Pannun.
“It either reveals tremendous incompetence—and that’s not characteristic of the Indian agencies I knew—or it reveals some strange calculation of costs and benefits that I don’t understand,” he told ThePrint, quickly adding that there is very little information for a complete picture.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi making comments like “ghar me ghus ke margene”—we will enter their houses and kill them—adds a piece to the puzzle, but Menon says it doesn’t fit.
“I don’t think we should draw connections between some stray statement somewhere and what is alleged here. This is not the kind of thing that our agencies are set up to do,” Menon said.
He added that there are checks and balances built into the system to prevent such rogue elements. But if something did slip through the cracks then he’s sure action will be taken. “No system likes to think that it doesn’t control itself.”
And in matters with the US, Menon doesn’t see President Donald Trump as a roadblock. “There will be hiccups and issues. He has clear ideas on tariffs and the economy. I expect some hard negotiations. But when you look at the last six months of Trump’s first administration, the US was very positive on a bilateral investment treaty and on a bilateral free trade agreement,” he said.
He added that there is enough to the US-India relationship that it will continue to develop in a positive way.
“I’m surprised by how far India has come in our relationship with the US. We’ve always been accused of being prickly about our sovereignty. But if you look at the links we have with the US today, they’re completely transformed. I mean, they sell real estate in Gurgaon today called Palm Springs and Nassau County,” he laughed.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)