New Delhi: The tell-tale signs were all over the place in the poll-bound Jharkhand, but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) high command ignored them despite the ominous indication when it lost all five reserved parliamentary seats for Scheduled Tribes.
The opposition party seemingly refused to take lessons from the snub earlier this year as its leaders, both from the state and Delhi, sought to deflect tribal anger and the identity issue by crying hoarse on Bangladeshi infiltrations. The BJP further stuck to its tried-and-tested strategy of Hindutva consolidation by pushing the narrative of ‘Batenge toh katenge’ in a tribal-dominated state.
In contrast, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) consolidated on its tribal identity as the party drummed on the Sarna Code and the 1932 Khatiyan-based domicile policy in the run-up to the election.
The ruling party also smartly turned the tables on the BJP’s narrative of infiltration by portraying that “outsiders” like Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma was deciding the fate of Jharkhand.
Late in the campaign, the BJP realised its folly and promised to look into the demand of the Sarna Code implementation. But, the party was unable to shrug off the anti-tribal image that has stuck with it since the days when Raghubar Das was in power (2014 to 2019).
By winning this election despite the anti-incumbency factor, JMM’s Hemant Soren has now become another Kejriwal for the BJP, a victory that will damage the BJP top ranks despite a speculator victory in Maharashtra as well as that in Haryana in October.
Beyond the party loss, the adverse results will rankle the individual aspirations and reputations of the BJP bigwigs: Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Sarma.
For Chouhan, who was made election in-charge of the eastern state, it marks as a major loss after featuring regularly on the winning side for years. This loss will dent his claim to the BJP president’s post.
Sarma, the BJP’s talisman in Northeast, failed to prove his mettle in his very first assignment as election in charge of a state outside his region.
Though tribal face and Jharkhand’s first chief minister Babulal Marandi was made the BJP state head, Sarma and Godda MP Nishikant Dubey called the shots when it came to the poll-related decisions.
ThePrint looks at the five reasons behind the BJP’s second consecutive loss in the state, which was carved out of Bihar during the NDA rule in Delhi, in 2000.
Failure to regain tribal support
The BJP’s course correction in Jharkhand with Marandi being brought back to its fold and elevating him first as the Leader of the Opposition and then as the BJP state head. All these steps, BJP insiders said, were done to regain tribal support for the party.
The grapevine is that Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee had alerted Soren about the BJP’s design of toppling the JMM-Congress government, a plot that had imprints of Sarma and Dubey with the blessings of the BJP central brass.
Another mistake that the BJP state leaders did was to “influence” the Centre to arrest Soren before the Lok Sabha polls.
What the BJP mandarins concluded was the necessity to “brand” Soren as “a corrupt leader who looted tribals” in order to nullify the JMM tribal card. But, the JMM successfully played out the narrative that a tribal chief minister was jailed by the BJP.
“I was against Hemant Soren’s arrest and spoke about it at a party core meeting that taking such action will boomerang. But jubilant leaders were convinced that it would dent the JMM’s identity and that the state leadership had to bow down before the centre’s strategy… It boomeranged,” a former chief minister told ThePrint.
After the adverse Lok Sabha results, the BJP went on correction mode as it focused on Bangladeshi infiltrations and, in the process, put aside the plank of corruption.
“The BJP made two strategies to dent two JMM strongholds…the first was to make inroads in Kolhan by inducting Champai Soren into the party, fielding Arjun Munda’s wife and Raghubar Das’ daughter in law and other prominent faces in this region. Secondly, the BJP made a huge election issue out of infiltrations to dent the JMM hold on Santhal Pargana for exploiting tribal fear…But, it did not work. The tribals, instead of being influenced, got annoyed…,” a BJP state leader told ThePrint.
Women votes turn tide for Soren
The Jharkhand Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana seemingly is the biggest game changer for Soren to protect his turf despite five years of anti-incumbency. Given the overall turnout of women voters was above 70 percent, it becomes clear that the women reposed their faith in Soren.
“Our biggest challenge was the Maiya Samman scheme, which was modelled on the lines of the Ladli Behna scheme… The BJP was aware of the impact of such a scheme in Madhya Pradesh where Shivraj Singh Chouhan, despite anti-incumbency, got a decisive fourth term,” Jharkhand BJP general secretary Aditya Sahu told ThePrint.
“The BJP announced the Gogo Didi Yojana and highlighted that the JMM launched a women-centric scheme at the eleventh hour for electoral gains. The party banked on the government’s anti-incumbency to derive advantage from this scheme.”
A BJP functionary conceded that the JMM had the upper hand as it was able to implement its scheme given that the party had administration under its control.
Harishwar Dayal, an economics professor of Ranchi’s Xavier College, too, asserted the role of the Maiya Samman scheme in the JMM’s comeback. “It changed the entire game… For tribal women, corruption doesn’t. They assume that every political party is involved in corruption, Financial help matters the most; it minimises anti- incumbency of the Soren government,” he explained.
Tribal pride worked for JMM , not BJP
Moolwasis, Adivasis, Sarna Code, Khatiyan became the go-to words of the JMM as it positioned itself as a party that stood for tribals and settlers protecting their rights.
The BJP sensed the people’s mood and promised to consider the Sarna Code if it came to power. Union Home Minister Amit Shah assured during the BJP manifesto launch that the party will form a committee to look into the demand of the local residents. The Uniform Civil Code (UCC) carrot was also dangled to entice the tribal population, but to no avail.
All these ploys came to a naught as Sarma took the driver’s seat when it came to poll preparations, relegating Marandi to the sidelines. The JMM’s narrative of outsider calling the shots gained ground, and the tribals again sided with Soren.
“Our major challenge was to win back tribal votes. Raghubar Das’ overemphasis on OBCs annoyed locals and tribals… That is why he was sent outside the state (to Odisha) and Babulal Marandi was made the state president who first brought the Khatiyan bill. We even went against our Hindutva project,as it was essential to negate the misgivings of tribals. But our mistake was to arrest the CM and destabilise his government,” a BJP state leader told ThePrint.
AJSU comes a cropper
The BJP’s bet on going with the All Jharkhand Students Union, or AJSU PARTY, did not pay dividends in the polls. The BJP contested 68 seats, while 13 seats were allotted to the AJSU, the JD(U) and the LJP.
“We made a mistake in 2019 by not striking an alliance with AJSU and we lost eight percent of the votes and several seats… This time, the BJP was more careful, and the LJP and JD(U) were accommodated to make a grand alliance. The BJP gave 10 seats to the AJSU, two to JD(U) and one to LJP to check division of votes. But the alliance did not work,” a BJP Jharkhand leader said.
“Even Sudesh Kumar Mahto (of AJSU Party) is trailing in Silli. Jairam Mahato’s Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha ended up splitting the Mahato voters at many seats like Gomia, Mandu, and Ichagarh. Jairam Mahato became a decisive factor in many factors. The INDIA bloc made the most of it.”
Misfire by not projecting Babulal Marandi
Another plausible factor for this negative result can be attributed to not projecting Babulal Marandi against Soren. Brought back to the BJP with much fanfare, Marandi was in the end left restricted to campaigning in his seat, Dhanwar, while leaders from other states campaigned in Jharkhand.
Soren’s wife Kalpana Soren, in the opposition camp, emerged as a star campaigner to rally women voters for the JMM. “(Union Minister) Annapurna Devi was no match for Kalpana Soren,” a BJP state leader told ThePrint.
Unlike Odisha and Chhattisgarh, the BJP leader said, Jharkhand was a different case altogether.
“In Jharkhand, the BJP’s biggest drawback was the lack of tribal trust. It was not the case in Chhattisgarh or Odisha. The chief ministers (of the rival parties, Bhupendra Baghel and Naveen Patnaik) were not tribals. … Projecting (Babulal) Marandi would have led to a much stronger fight as he has an honest image and a strong tribal identity. The BJP erred by going for a one-size-fits-all approach strategy in Jharkhand,” he said, referring to the hardcore Hindutva card.
“26 percent tribal and 15 percent Muslim votes made the JMM invincible like Lalu (yadav earlier). Their (JMM’s) symbol is another challenge as tribals consider ‘teer dhanush’ (bow and arrow) as their traditional symbol. The BJP can only get a hold by taking over the poll symbol like it did with the Shiv Sena.“
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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Tribals across India are the same. I am a resident of Assam and hence very well aware of politics in north-east India.
Tribals only care about preserving their special privileges (the 6th Schedule of the Constitution). Their identity is the only thing that matters to them. They do not care about basic infrastructure such as roads, schools, hospitals. Factors such as unemployment and crime do not bother them a bit.
As such, they only vote for the self-professed tribal political parties. In Meghalaya, they vote en masse for the NPP (National People’s Party). They know well enough that the Sangma dynasty is corrupt to the bones but this just not matters to them.