By Paul Carsten
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Tuesday, with an uncertain outlook for global demand knocking value off crude futures contracts, despite some risk premium from the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Brent futures dipped 22 cents or 0.26% to $83.34 a barrel by 1450 GMT. The six-month spread for Brent on Tuesday was also at its highest since October, in a sign of a tighter market.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April delivery fell 26 cents, or 0.33%, to $78.20 a barrel, after earlier paring $1. The March WTI contract gained 36 cents or 0.45% to $79.55 a barrel ahead of its expiry during the session.
There was no settlement for WTI on Monday due to a U.S. public holiday.
Crude markets were “marginally lower” in “quiet trading over the Presidents’ Day holiday in the U.S. and as demand concerns offset ongoing Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions”, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
Various countries are increasing efforts to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza as the threat of an Israeli assault on the city of Rafah looms. The U.N. has warned an assault “could lead to a slaughter”.
Shipping has suffered as the conflict in the Middle East threatens to escalate, with energy markets particularly vulnerable. In support of Palestinians, Iran-aligned Houthis have increased attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, with at least four more vessels hit by drone and missile strikes since Friday.
But the conflict in the Middle East, one of the world’s major oil-producing regions, has not been enough to counter crude investors’ worries about flagging global demand.
A bearish International Energy Agency (IEA) report last week revised the 2024 oil demand growth forecast downward, to almost a million barrels a day less than producer group OPEC’s outlook.
The IEA estimated global oil demand will grow by 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, while OPEC’s growth forecast is 2.25 million bpd.
The two are clashing in part over the shift to renewable and cleaner energy, with the IEA, which represents industrialised countries, predicting oil demand will peak by 2030 while OPEC expects oil use to keep rising for the next two decades.
(Reporting by Paul Carsten in London and Colleen Howe in Beijing and Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, David Evans and Susan Fenton)
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