New Delhi: The world’s top economists view the global economy with caution as 53 percent expect economic conditions to weaken over the next year, even though that figure has fallen from 72 percent in September 2025, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists Outlook.
The report says 19 percent of economists expect the global economy to strengthen, while 28 percent see no change, pointing to a cautious outlook but an improvement from September 2025, when only 11 percent expected stronger growth.
“The Chief Economists survey reveals three defining trends for 2026: surging AI investment and its implications for the global economy; debt approaching critical thresholds with unprecedented shifts in fiscal and monetary policies; and trade realignments,” World Economic Forum’s Managing Director Saadia Zahidi said in a press release.
She added, “Governments and companies will have to navigate an uncertain near-term environment with agility while continuing to build resilience and invest in the long-term fundamentals of growth.”
The report is built on extensive consultations and surveys with chief economists from the public and private sectors, organised by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society.
The survey reveals uncertainty around technology-led growth. While artificial intelligence (AI) has driven market rallies, 52 percent of economists now expect AI-related stocks to decline, compared to 40 percent who foresee further gains.
The report notes that the rapid spread of AI is seen both as a reason for optimism and a potential source of disruption. It states “While the potential for significant productivity improvements is widely acknowledged, the pace and distribution of these benefits are expected to vary considerably across regions, industries and firm sizes.”
Globally, debt levels are also emerging as a major fault line. Nearly one-third of respondents fear sovereign debt crises in advanced economies, a concern that rises to almost 50 percent for emerging markets. More than 60 percent expect governments to lean on higher inflation and increased tax revenues to manage rising debt levels.
“Global public debt stood at a record $102 trillion in 2024 and is projected to rise about 100 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) by 2029,” the report states.
Global trade is also settling into a more competitive phase, the survey suggests. While the United States (US)–China tariff levels are expected to remain largely stable, 91 percent of chief economists expect US technology export controls on China to remain or increase, and 84 percent say the same about Chinese restrictions on critical minerals.
In this context, about 94 percent of economists expect a rise in bilateral trade deals and 69 percent see regional agreements gaining ground, with 89 percent predicting a surge in Chinese exports to non-US markets.
Investment trends are also diverging, with 57 percent expecting higher foreign direct investment into the US, compared to just 9 percent for China.
Also Read: Geoeconomic confrontation top trigger for global crisis, cyber insecurity biggest risk for India—WEF
Economists optimistic about Asia
Growth expectations among chief economists show a clear regional divide. South Asia stands out, with 66 percent of economists expecting strong or very strong performance, largely powered by India’s momentum.
According to the report, despite trade headwinds amid US tariffs on Indian exports, India’s Reserve Bank recent assessment shows an 8.2 percent year-on-year real GDP growth in the September quarter supported by near-zero inflation.
The report adds, “At the same time, India is continuing on its reform pathway by reducing restrictions for employment, and AI adoption is surging alongside investments from US technology firms.”
East Asia and the Pacific also remain on a steady footing, with respondents forecasting either strong (45 percent of the economists) or moderate (55 percent of them) growth. The Middle East and North Africa region follow a similar pattern, with 64 percent expecting a moderate growth and 36 percent a strong growth.
The outlook, however, is far less upbeat elsewhere.
Confidence in the US has improved, with 69 percent now expecting moderate growth, up sharply from 49 percent in September 2025, though just 11 percent see strong growth.
China’s prospects are mixed, split between moderate growth – 47 percent, strong growth – 24 percent and weak growth – 29 percent.
Europe remains the laggard, with over half of economists expecting weak growth and only 3 percent anticipating a strong recovery. The report states, “Europe faces a more subdued outlook, weighed down by demographic trends and the costs associated with conflict and fragmented regulatory frameworks.”
Also Read: South rising, west slipping: India’s export map is being redrawn, shows RBI data