New Delhi: Ukraine is open to India hosting the next peace summit, Svitlana Kovalchuk, the head of Ukraine’s top security forum said, adding that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s comments post the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi does not undermine the symbolic message of the Indian leader’s historic visit to Kyiv in August.
Yalta European Strategy (YES) executive director Kovalchuk, who was in India as a part of a visit to multiple countries, added that a “real security guarantee”—membership into the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)—is non-negotiable for Kyiv, as Ukraine hopes an end to the war by 2025.
“The most important red line is a real security guarantee. For us, we believe only NATO membership can be really effective. We already have the Budapest memorandum when we gave up our nuclear power, when all European countries promised to support us. We have learnt our lessons,” Kovalchuk told ThePrint.
She added: “We believe that only membership in NATO can stop [President] Putin. Of course, he is against it because for him it is also a red-line. If we get an invitation to NATO to the territory of Ukraine as it is now, then we are ready to negotiate the future of the other territories later in diplomatic talks. This does not mean we are giving up our territory, but willing to postpone the negotiations of the territories to a later time.”
Kovalchuk, who is the executive director of YES–a forum which was created to discuss Ukraine’s European future two decades ago, now hosts leaders from around the world at its annual conference–was clear that the Eastern European country would prefer “no peace” over a “bad peace” as the war has devastated the nation.
“Why have so many people died in Ukraine? Why has half of Ukraine been destroyed? 65 percent of our energy infrastructure has been destroyed. We have paid a high price for our independence. Of course, we want real security guarantees,” asserted Kovalchuk.
NATO–the military alliance created by the US and its allies in 1949–has continued to exist post the fall of the Soviet Union, retaining its mutual defence clause under Article V of the Washington treaty.
With a NATO membership, if Ukraine faces another attack, all 32 members currently a part of the organisation would in theory defend the country. In 1994, Ukraine, along with the US, the UK and Russia signed a treaty in Budapest, where Kyiv agreed to give up the nuclear weapons it retained after the fall of the USSR in return for security guarantees.
“The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the United Nations Charter,” says Article 2 of the Budapest memorandum.
However, Russia’s actions starting with Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale military operation in February 2022 aimed at Kyiv, there is little faith that anything less than full NATO membership would allow Ukraine to maintain its independence, points out Kovalchuk.
She, however, conceded that India, given its longstanding ties with Russia and its distance from NATO countries, insists on dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow without the insistence of membership of Ukraine to the Washington Treaty on the table.
‘Hope Trump will ensure consequences for Russia’
The election of Donald J. Trump as the next President of the US has raised the spectre of weaker support from Washington for Kyiv’s efforts in the war going forward. The incumbent administration of president Joe Biden has been firm in its support for Ukraine, sending military equipment to Kyiv, but that might change given Trump’s proclamation of ending the war as soon as possible.
“We hope that [President] Trump will advocate a fair peace with consequences for Russia. For us, it is important to not only have peace but also that Russia faces consequences. What Russia did is it destroyed international law,” said Kovalchuk.
She added: “If Russia is not punished, another country could do the same. I recently visited South Korea and they are worried that North Korea could start a war with them. They [South Korea] think it is the reason why North Korea sent their troops to Ukraine to get training in a real war. Or, even China and Taiwan…The activities can be replicated by other states.”
The message from Kyiv is clear, that while peace is important, it cannot be at the cost of Ukraine’s independence or its future. On questions of the potential of weakening US military aid, Kovalchuk was clear that it would not change Ukraine’s intent to fight till the very end.
“What is going to happen? We have already lost 20 percent of our territory. We lost so many Ukrainians. We were a country of 38 million people before the war. Now there are only 20 million people left in Ukraine…We will fight till the end,” said Kovalchuk.
The hope is that the Europeans may step in with increased military aid in the event that the US stops its support. However, the YES executive director points out that even with the current military support, there is only enough weapons for about two and a half brigades of its armed forces, while the need is for roughly 10 brigades.
Symbolism of Modi’s visit important
For Ukraine, Modi’s visit to Kyiv in August–the first by an Indian Prime Minister since the independence of the Eastern European country from the USSR in 1991–was “symbolically important”, especially for its outreach to the developing world.
“The visit by Prime Minister Modi to Ukraine meant for us that India understands that this is an unfair war, that it is a war against the rule of law and against democratic values. India in Ukraine is very popular, but not many Indians know about Ukraine,” said Kovalchuk.
She added: “In the beginning of the war due to no active communication with India, we could not understand its position. However, with the visit of the Indian prime minister, we now have a greater understanding.”
The hope is for India to take the lead in the humanitarian field, especially aid the country in the return of Ukrainian children who were deported to Russia during the early stages of the war.
India could be a potential venue for the next peace summit, given that New Delhi has been in touch with leaders from both countries, pointed out Kovalchuk. After the visit of Modi, President Zelenskyy was clear that if New Delhi is interested in hosting peace efforts, it should first sign on to the outcomes of the Global Peace Summit hosted by Switzerland earlier in the year.
India, which had sent a delegation to the summit, refused to sign on to the final document given that Russia was not present and reiterated that any peace negotiation requires both parties to be present.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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