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It is said that in politics sometimes nothing happens in months and then years happen in a week. The past few days have not only accelerated the pace of developments but also changed the trajectory of the world’s future. Trump’s shot at a 2nd innings of the US Presidency was given a perhaps irreversible boost by the shot fired at him at a rally just ahead of his nomination. It has not only possibly doomed any hopes of installing a Democratic President, but also created the strong probability of a Congress (both House and Senate) in the President’s grip. Modi’s slogan of “Abki baar, 400 paar” may not have succeeded, but Trump certainly seems headed for a situation in which all three wings of the government (executive, legislative and judiciary) will be under his control.
While by and large Indians (most of whom consider themselves as “liberal-minded”) prefer Democrats in power in the US, it is also seen that India tends to getter greater geo-political support when the US is under Republican Presidents. Besides, Trump’s animosity towards China and tilt towards his friend, Modi, should augur well for our country.
Trump may not necessarily support Russia as much as is believed, as it may be seen as a sign of weakness – more than anything else, Trump hates to be perceived as weak. However, European countries are already preparing to borrow massive sums of money in order to shore up their military spending as the so-called “peace dividend” dries up. However, it is important to bear in mind that the US demand that Europe increase its share of NATO spending was first made under Democratic President Obama.
John Maynard Keynes, a famous economist of the 20th century, had written about 80 years back that “in the financial markets, the inevitable never happens; it is the unexpected always”. In 2024, there have been several instances of this principle. In Pakistan, despite being in jail and perceived to have no influence, Imran Khan managed to get more than a third of the independent candidates to win. In India, the BJP’s lack of a majority came as a huge shock not only to its supporters but even its detractors. In France, the right-wing parties were surprised when they failed to get a majority. So, ironically, the more “inevitable” a Trump win becomes, the more likely it will be that he loses.
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