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The world as we know it is changing at a brisk pace every moment as we speak. Individuals, communities and nations are engaged in constant efforts to future-proof themselves to adapt to the changes being driven by technology, geopolitics, climate change and demographics.
We are in the midst of a 4th industrial revolution, which has the potential to disrupt almost every sector of the global economy due to the speed, scale and integration being effected by Industry 4.0. Further geopolitically, the world is moving towards a scenario where the USA is being challenged by a rising China and a select few groups of nations & groupings such as India, Israel, and GCC are embracing the concept of multi-alignment or issue-based alignment to suit their best interests.
Globally, several battles and rivalries are shaping up with the potential to radically alter the balance of power in the future. We are witnessing a global race led by China to secure critical strategic minerals to power the next phase of the global energy transition driven by climate change and Net-Zero Commitments. Simultaneously a global battle on technological supremacy between the West and China is witnessing the use of punitive trade measures to restrict the flow of resources and technology whose consequences will be felt by the global economy and institutions including India.
Amidst all of this, one begins to wonder whether India is prepared institutionally to handle these tectonic shifts across various streams. Consider the following hypothetical scenarios
- What if in the ongoing trade and technological war between the West and China leads to an embargo on the export of critical minerals necessary for India’s clean energy and green mobility transition?
- A situation arises where Russia our key defense equipment supplier doesn’t service our needs when a two – front war with China & Pakistan looms large (improbable as it may sound)
- India becomes a go to destination for Climate Change refugees in the Indo-pacific region receiving inflows from Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh
- The AI revolution ends up taking up more Indian jobs than creating new ones necessitating a large Social Welfare Program or embracing Universal Basic Income (UBI)
These scenarios are not intended to create an alarm but rather to provoke one into contemplating if are our institutions prepared or have they war gamed policy scenarios to handle several eventualities. It is not as if the Indian government and its implementing agencies are not aware of these larger megatrends. To further illustrate the point the Government has recently unveiled its list of Critical Minerals, published a draft of the Green Credits Program and the Indian Carbon Market reforms which all indicate that the establishment is looking at long term reforms in consonance with India’s interests and international commitments. However, Ministries and Departments are always occupied with the “here & now”, busy implementing existing schemes, complying with judicial directives and hence they do not have the bandwidth or resources to actively embrace long term future gazing. Further Governments come and go and it is unlikely that long term thinking will be embraced at the operational level since elections take place every 5 years and hence political players or the public can’t help but be driven by “short-termism” which also some argue has evolutionary biological roots.
It is here where an independent Agency for Risk Management & Strategic Future Planning can be thought of. It can be housed at NITI Aayog to begin with and its’ function would be to engage in Futures Thinking, future Scenario War gaming and generating insights and foresight on emerging issues and potential future crises.
One can take a leaf out of Singapore’s book which has a Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) that operates as part of the strategic group in the Prime Minister’s Office. The CSF in Singapore is tasked with conducting long-term futures research and guiding whole-of-government strategic planning and prioritization. CSF biennially publishes a report “Foresight” with research on international megatrends and emerging issues which require attention to potentially future-proof Singapore in the larger scheme of things.
The proposed agency can have participation of Government, industry, civil society organizations and experts who can share their knowledge and skills to potentially develop a common vision of a desired future through wide participation and consultation.
A regular dialogue and an interaction between implementing agencies, Government Ministries and Departments can ensure policy prescription are not far from practical considerations.
While the future can’t be predicted, in the face of rapid change and uncertainty, a dedicated institution that embraces futures thinking and scenario planning may help ensure that India is not caught unprepared in case of any eventuality. Just like our armed forces regularly conduct war games, this agency should institutionalize policy war-games and scenario planning to deal with any potential future that India may have to deal with. If we can’t predict the future, we may attempt to create it.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.