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The notion of two-front war situation is fading as India must now wake up to the reality of three-front war situation. Bangladesh’s new regime growing proximity with Pakistan is a telling signal for Indian government to act swiftly on defense modernization. Leaders of both Pakistan and Bangladesh have already undertaken two bilateral meetings in last five months, whereas India continue to hold talks at diplomatic levels. As long as India provides safe haven to Sheikh Hasina, it seems unlikely that any improvement in relations with Bangladesh would happen in short-term. With Pakistan, Bangladesh and China on the same side, India needs to stand strong across
all front to face any future hostilities. Thus, it is imperative for government to increase
defense spending on modernization and induct new fighter jets to meet required squadron
strength. The long-awaited theatre commands must also see the light of the day.
Pakistan wooing “New” Bangladesh
After the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, Bangladesh has entered an era of new
administration, new ideology and new policies, which seems more aligned to Islamic
scholars and radicals. This culminates into a view that is Anti-India and Anti-Minorities.
Understanding this situation aptly, Pakistan is now seeking closer ties with Bangladesh, that
would give them a strategic advantage in the sub-continent after a long time.
Muhammad Yunus and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held a bilateral meeting in Cairo in
December 2024 on the margin of D-8 summit. This was the second bilateral meeting in last
five months, the first one came in New York in September 2024. Both governments aim to
strengthen maritime ties and seek revival of SAARC summit, which India have boycotted
since 2016 owing to Pakistan sponsored terrorist activities.
Bangladesh Army Chief – Waker-Uz-Zaman has also invited Pakistani Army to conduct
training and joint military exercises. Bangladesh Navy is also expected to hold a joint
exercise with the Pakistan at Karachi Port in 2025. If Pakistan Army do end up visiting
Bangladesh, then it would be the first time since 1971 war. This reflects how quickly
relationship with Pakistan have blossomed under the administration of Muhammad Yunus.
India behind in defense modernization, must act now
With looming three-front situation, India’s defense spending is not aligned to meet
deterrence against adversaries. This was noted in the recent Parliament Committee Report on Defense that came out in December 2024. India’s defense spending as a percentage of GDP declined to 1.9% in FY24-25, against 2.38% in 2020. Being a developing nation that is surrounded by adversaries, the defense spending must ideally be in line with GDP growth. China, the second largest economy spent 1.7% of GDP towards military spending, whereas US the World’s largest economy spent 3.4% of GDP in FY23-24.
The continuous struggle with production of Tejas Mk1a and fifth generation Advanced
Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), which is still under design phase have delayed fighter jet
modernization by several years. The current strength of India’s fighter jet squadron is 31
against required 42, necessary for a two-front war situation not even three. As Pakistan
aims to acquire fifth generation fighter jets from China, while latter is already in the process of testing sixth generation fighter jets, puts India in an unpleasant territory.
With evolving nature of geo-politics, Government of India must take corrective steps to
bridge rising gap between defense modernization and budget allocation. It is essential to
build adequate deterrence capacity across three forces that would ward off any threats.
Source:
https://www.delhipolicygroup.org/publication/policy-briefs/indias-defence-budget-2024-
25.html
https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/a-new-bangladesh-is-emerging-but-it-needs-india-too/
https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/parliament-
panel-pushes-for-army-budget-to-reflect-regional-threats-124121901281_1.html
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