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Imran Ahmad Khan Niazi, former prime minister of Pakistan, (Aug 2018 to April 2022) crossed the limits, when he managed to provoke his followers to take to the streets on 9th May and set fire to the Corps Commander’s residence in Rawalpindi. 9th May has been termed as ‘Black Day’ in Pakistan.
This was a direct challenge to the mighty Pakistani army of over six lakh soldiers that wields over a hundred atomic warheads. An army which has never lost a battle against the citizens of Pakistan.
Imran khan himself was arrested but managed to get freed through direct interference by Umar Ata Bandiyal, the Chief Justice of the Supreme court of Pakistan. Subsequently Imran was granted bail by High Court in Islamabad ( IHC).
This was an unexpected blow to the army that had apparently planned a long term incarceration for Imran Khan.
ARMY REACTS: MAILED FIST
Shell shocked and confused, initially, the army soon recovered and consolidated under General Asim Muneer who had taken over as Army Chief from General Bajwa just a few months back.
ISI the ‘deep state’ swung into action with its full might. Arrests and disappearances of thousands of those connected with Imran Khans’ political Party Tehreek -e -Insaaf Pakistan began. When the leaders in the party appeared in public after short disappearances, (attributed to ISI), they were highly subdued, silent except to say that they were quitting the party. Some like journalist Imran Riaz Khan have not reappeared at all. Worst is expected.
RANGE OF OPTIONS FOR ARMY
Pakistani Army is keen to end this fiasco quickly and with least bloodshed. ISI is working day and night to disorganize, weaken and dissolve Tehreek-e-Insaaf Pakistan, a political party lead by Imran Khan.
As per No PR-76/2023-ISPR, 81st Formation Commanders Conference at GHQ, has given General Muneer a free hand to deal with the situation, “it is time that noose of law is also tightened around the planners and masterminds who mounted the hate ripened and politically driven rebellion against the state and state institutions to achieve their nefarious design of creating chaos in the country”.
PAKISTANI ARMY continues to be all powerful in Pakistan. It dominates the state of Pakistan with all its resources, political arena with its ability to manipulate political parties and their leaders, commercial ventures, and the mainstream media.
It has over the decades managed to stay in power despite its crass adventurism, losing wars, and creating chaos within the country and immediate neighborhood. Pakistani Army has dealt with upstart politicians earlier and can do so even now.
Option : General Election
Imran Khan is too popular right now. If an election is declared soon, even with his hands tied to the back as of now, when many of his leaders have deserted , and followers imprisoned and frightened, he would still win and claim his rights to form a civilian government.
Allowing Imran free movement in the name of elections is too dangerous, he will become a hero, rouse the populace against the army. This is not acceptable to the Pakistani Army. So, this option is OUT.
Option: Neutralizing Imran Khan permanently
‘Call him a mad dog and hang him’ as the saying goes.
It has been done before. Zulfiqar Bhutto became a thorn in the flesh of General Zia Ul Haq. He was trapped in a murder case, sentenced to death by a pliable judiciary and hanged on a lovely spring morning on 04 April 1979.
Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan to fight an election. She was assassinated (on 27 December 2007) in Rawalpindi.
In both these cases USA, dependent up on Pakistani army for its operations in Afghanistan, made a few formal noises but there was no real pressure on the Pakistani army.
At present USA is not involved in Afghanistan and has little interest in shoring up Pak military. In fact, Zalmay Khalilzad (former US ambassador to United Nations) Is calling openly for Gen Asim Muneer to step down.
Option: IMPRISONMENT
A likely option. Imran Khan has over a hundred cases filed against him on issues from corruption in Tosh Khana, to incitement, etc. He could be sentenced to sufficiently long stretches, enough to disqualify him from fighting elections and fade away from memory.
Pakistani Army cannot be faulted for allowing due process of law! A convenient fig leaf.
Option ; EXILE
Pakistan has seen many of its past usurpers of power, dictators and former prime ministers from Iskandar Mirza, Yahya Khan, Benazir Bhutto, General Musharraf ,Nawaz Sharif moving to London or the middle east, when political conditions in Pakistan became too hot for them.
Imran Khan is alleged to be addicted to drugs. Any how he is all of seventy years and a Jail life in a Pakistani prison, sleeping on the floor, with mosquitoes , bugs and lizards for company will be most unwelcome.*
Time is Running Out for Imran Khan
Imran Khan has so far been protesting loudly, though isolated. His talk of 07 June had no fire and brimstone. He complains that the establishment is not talking to him, but intimidating his sisters and family members. Imran Khan is looking for a good bargain.
But how far will the angry army accommodate Imran Khan?
INDIA AND THE WORLD
Imran khan, is considered an eccentric, a loose cannon, a leader in a failing and weak state. He cannot expect support from outside. Governments in India and the world are in no mood to intervene in the internal affairs of Pakistan, which after losing control of Afghan Taliban , has lost much of its relevance.
Imran Khan will be lucky to go into exile, if only to return after five years, like Nawaz Sharif, Benazir, or Zardari, Bilawal Bhutto.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.