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The 7 Thousand Crore rupees question is what will be the effect on voting behavior of Indian masses of the disclosures about the Electoral bonds that the SBI after the Supreme court rebuke has disclosed and Election commission has put on its website?And the answer is: very meagre. These disclosures some feel will create ripples in political waters on the eve of general elections but they will certainly be disappointed.
We will not discuss the effect of these disclosures on dispassionate minds but on the passionate minds that constitute more than 80 percent of the electorate i.e. people who think with their guts.
You need no survey or poll to gauge the effect. It has been in the public domain since four centuries ago. Anyone who has read the quotes from the Novum Organum of Francis Bacon would tell you that more than 400 years back the great writer and philosopher had predicted the effect of the controversy regarding these disclosures.
Thus goes Bacon:
“The human understanding, when it has once adopted an opinion, draws all things … to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises or … sets aside and rejects in order that by this great and pernicious predetermination, the authority of its former conclusions may remain inviolate”.
In behavioral psychology they call it Confirmation Bias. You may Google or search in any AI platform about the Confirmation Bias the crux will be as follows:
Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that involves favoring information that confirms one pre-existing beliefs or hypotheses while ignoring or dismissing information that contradicts them.When presented with ambiguous or uncertain information, individuals are more likely to interpret it in a way that confirms their beliefs. They may downplay or ignore evidence that contradicts their pre-existing views.
Confirmation bias can have significant implications in various aspects of life, including decision-making, problem-solving, and interpersonal relationships. In politics, for example, people may selectively consume news sources that align with their political ideology, reinforcing their existing beliefs and polarizing their views further.
Drew Westen in his book “The Political Brain” confirms with evidence and research that the political brain is an emotional brain developed with the existence of mankind. Human brain is not a dispassionate calculating machine, objectively searching for the right facts, figures and policies to make a reasoned decision. The partisans think with their guts.
So as pre poll surveys are predicting majority for the BJP and its partners, in the context of Electoral bond disclosure the so called quid pro quo by the Modi regime will least affect the mood that has already been built and been confirmed by these pre poll surveys. The BJP while campaigning and through social media will make these disclosures more ambiguous and circulate counter viewpoints not to convince but for the consumption of the already convinced.
The congress party can find a solace in what Drew Westen has written in the above mentioned book. He says that what leads voters to demand a change of course on an issue is not new facts but changed emotions. So in all they, the opposition seems to have to wait for another five years for a change in emotions.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.