Prime Minister Keir Starmer pulled through the immediate aftermath of bruising UK local elections, but his longer-term position remained in jeopardy as his Labour rivals touted a plan to replace him with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.
On Friday evening, Labour was on course to lose more than 1,400 of the roughly 2,500 council seats it was defending across England as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK surged across the country. That swing makes good on a year-long poll lead for the right-wing populist leader, and underlined his chances of success at the next general election.
Labour also endured an historic collapse to the nationalist Plaid Cymru in Wales, and saw many of their London seats fall to the Greens.
In England the results, which will continue to trickle in over the weekend, have so far avoided a worst-case scenario seen by many pollsters but nonetheless represent a damning verdict from voters almost two years on from Starmer’s landslide general election victory in July 2024.
It renews focus on the premier’s leadership, which has been imperiled by damaging scandals, dire opinion polls and criticism from across Labour that he is failing to deliver the change he promised Britons when he swept aside 14 years of Conservative rule.
His Chancellor Rachel Reeves was among cabinet ministers tweeting a tepid show of support, saying “Keir Starmer won a mandate to change our country. We must get on with delivering that mandate.” The question before her colleagues is whether they can continue the mandate without the man.
Most of the Labour members of Parliament and aides who spoke to Bloomberg on Friday said they thought Starmer would fend off the threat of an immediate challenge. However, most also agreed he was unlikely to lead Labour into the next general election, due in 2029.
“If we go into the next election with him we’re going to get slaughtered,” Labour MP Simon Opher told Sky News on Friday. “What we really want is a really planned, orderly timetable, and a real contest,” he said, adding he wanted Burnham to be on the ballot.
“The status quo clearly isn’t sustainable,” Labour MP Vicky Foxcroft told Bloomberg.
The majority of MPs in the so-called soft-left faction of the Labour Party have coalesced behind a proposal to replace Starmer with Burnham in the next year, several lawmakers aligned to that caucus said, speaking on condition of anonymity discussing internal party politics. Keeping an immediate leadership challenge at bay and then maneuvering a Burnham run is the play for that faction, they said.
At least 20 Labour MPs, including Louise Haigh, a standard bearer on the so-called soft left, went public with calls for Starmer to agree to what they characterized as an orderly transition of power to a new leader, some explicitly backing a Burnham premiership as the end goal. Haigh was said to be canvassing support for the idea with the support of Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, people familiar with the matter said.
Miliband, who is seen as representative of many on the soft left, thinks Burnham should ultimately take over and that he has a better shot of saving the country from a Farage premiership and withstanding the burdens of leadership than Angela Rayner, that faction’s other candidate, according to people familiar with the matter. Miliband recently suggested to Starmer in a private meeting that he should consider an orderly transition of power, The Times reported Thursday.
Proponents of a handover to Burnham said he was the standout candidate, polling significantly better than any alternative and boasting support in the northwest of England, where Labour was hammered by Reform.
One said a group dubbed the “sensibles” on the soft left would push Starmer to allow Burnham to stand for a parliamentary seat, a prerequisite for any run for the top job. They said this was the best way to make a change of leader as painless as possible, and argued that Burnham is a more credible option than Rayner, who resigned from Starmer’s cabinet last year after an investigation into her tax affairs.
That may be easier said than done. Members from across Labour dismissed the chances of an orderly transition, warning that many in the party would oppose a Burnham coronation and that any leadership contest would end up a contest between multiple candidates. “He’s not going to go and he’s not going to set a timetable,” Technology Secretary Liz Kendall told the BBC.
An ally of the premier said the orderly transition proposal was evidence that Starmer’s enemies did not have the numbers to mount a coup. They said Starmer planned a speech on Monday that would provide a reset for his premiership.
The majority of Labour members say they don’t think Starmer can turn around the party’s fortunes, with 45% saying he should step down, the Guardian reported. Burnham was out in front as the preferred successor for 42% of more than 1,000 people surveyed in the poll by think-tank Compass, which was conducted just before Thursday’s elections.
The think-tank is affiliated with Mainstream, a Labour network that is a backer of a potential Burnham leadership bid.
Starmer’s allies have signaled that he will appeal to the markets to shore up his position, where an adverse reaction could help turn back a challenge. Concerns about political instability have already been blamed for increasing the premium on UK government debt.
Labour MPs said a flashpoint could occur in the weeks ahead if a parliamentary by-election is triggered in the northwest of England and Burnham puts himself forward as a candidate, leaving the party’s national executive committee with the decision of whether to approve him. An ally of Starmer said he should continue to use his sway at that meeting to block Burnham from standing — as he did in February — as permitting it would be tantamount to conceding defeat to his opponents.
Labour MPs and aides said both Rayner and Wes Streeting — the health secretary who is on the right of the party — would be reluctant to stand aside for Burnham. They said that could incentivize them both to move in the coming days while they still had a window of opportunity before Burnham has a chance to make it to Parliament.
One said the key question of the next 48 hours is whether Streeting decides to resign from Starmer’s cabinet and announce a leadership bid, as that would likely prompt Rayner to counter with her own run, before Burnham is eligible. Both Streeting and Rayner spent Friday weighing their options, people familiar with their thinking said.
Another Starmer supporter pleaded for time, arguing Labour MPs should give him at least until the halfway point of his premiership at the end of this year before making the decision to oust him. Still, that would be a departure from the premier’s public position that he will lead Labour into the next election.
It leaves Labour MPs in a bind: at the moment they appear stuck with a historically unpopular leader and no consensus on a plan to replace him.
–With assistance from Jacob Reid.
Disclaimer: This report is auto generated from the Bloomberg news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.