New Delhi: In July this year, when the Dalai Lama turned 88, the celebrations were underpinned by a difficult question. Who will succeed him in the event of his passing? Will there be a successor at all?
The question hung like a shadow over the G20 Summit as it was skipped by China President Xi Jinping.
China would like to control the appointment, and thus secure its position in Tibet. There are experts, however, who believe that the Dalai Lama could “emanate” his soul into the body of a US-born Mongolian teenager as the tenth Khalkha Jetsun Dhampa, the head of the Janang tradition of Tibetan Buddhism and the Buddhist spiritual head of Mongolia.
The Dalai Lama, the lodestar of Tibetan exiles, has said he plans to live beyond the age of 113, and will address the question of his succession when he turns 90 in 2025.
While the Dalai Lama is generally found through reincarnation, the incumbent Tenzin Gyatso has suggested the prospect of emanation — or appointing a “manifestation” as his successor while he is still alive.
Be that as it may, it’s a question with grave geopolitical implications, what with an increasingly aggressive China staking claim to the appointment while the exiles say the right lies with Tibetans alone.
Further loading the succession affair is the Dalai Lama’s assertion that he won’t be reincarnated in a Tibet that’s “not free”, which has lent weight to the prospect of the successor being picked from India, home to the largest population of Tibetan exiles.
The presence of two Dalai Lamas — in India and China — could potentially further strain bilateral relations, where Tibet is already a sore point.
Col. Vinayak Bhat (Retd) of Rashtriya Raksha University said, after Dalai Lama’s successor takes over, “China may take advantage of the situation by creating a conflict of interest”.
“Although a border confrontation with India on this issue is a very remote possibility, it is possible that China may try something smaller, such as a nibbling at our territory in Arunachal Pradesh… China has recently attempted to enhance its image in global politics. So, at least until 2050, there may be no fighting.”
He added that “there will be more conflicts of interest if the Dalai Lama chooses his successor by emanating his soul since China may question the procedure”.
“Furthermore, the Tibetans themselves may be sceptical about the succession since the procedure of locating the reincarnation has not gone as smoothly as it should have. There is a set of procedures that must be followed in order to discover the reincarnation; if they are not followed correctly, the succession may be called into question,” he added.
‘Power to be harnessed’
Prof Ramu Manivannan, Head of the Department of Politics & Public Administration, School of Politics & International Studies, University of Madras, said in a December 2020 piece for thinktank Tibet Policy Institute that Tibet, “in simple terms, is vital for both military and human security (water, natural resources, and environment) of India and South and Southeast Asia”.
Calls have been rising within India — which recognises Tibet as an autonomous part of China — to take a stronger stand on calls for the region’s independence, with supporters of Tibet’s freedom struggle including former Army chief General M.M. Naravane (Retd).
The idea is to adopt a more aggressive stance against China to counter its territorial provocations.
In a speech last month, Gen. Naravane (Retd) said approximately 1 lakh of Tibet’s 1.4 lakh exiles are in India. “This is an exceptional pool of latent power which needs to be harnessed,” he said.
“It is indeed a historical fact that Tibet has been and is, the rightful neighbour of India and that the common border was open and peaceful, allowing not only free movement of trade and people, but also the flow of the finest thoughts of human civilisation,” he added, accusing China of revisionism for claiming that Tibet had been a part of it since ancient times.
Many Tibetans came to India in 1959 with the Dalai Lama following an up-rising against Chinese rule, and several others have arrived in the years since.
The number of Tibetans in India is, however, in decline, according to those in the know.
“In recent years, a noticeable trend has emerged within the Tibetan community in India. It’s become increasingly common to witness Tibetans seeking opportunities beyond India’s borders,” said Gonpo Dhundup, president of the Tibetan Youth Congress, an organisation working to restore complete independence to Tibet.
“This movement isn’t confined to the youth alone, although they constitute a significant portion. Many among the younger generation are embarking on journeys to Europe and America, driven by aspirations for education and the pursuit of stable, prosperous lives,” he added.
Tenzin Passang, national director, Students For a Free Tibet – India, said “some Tibetans, particularly ex-political prisoners and their families, move to countries like Australia, Canada, and the US through resettlement programmes aimed at providing a better life and reunification”.
“Countries like Australia, Canada, and the US offer better job prospects, social benefits, and pathways to citizenship for refugees and migrants,” he added.
Amitabh Mathur, former adviser to the Government of India on Tibet affairs, said “Tibetans primarily go to western countries due to economic opportunities, a trend since the 1970s”.
“Once settled outside, they help others also settle abroad. The numbers never seemed to decline in India as there was always a fresh flow of people fleeing from Tibet. But this flow of people has trickled down in the last couple of decades and therefore the decline in numbers is in contrast,” he added.
Following the 2008 uprising in Tibet, the number of people coming into India has gone down to just an average of 30-40 people per year because of a crackdown by the Chinese government, said a Member of Parliament of the Tibetan parliament-in-exile.
According to Col. Bhat (Retd), Tibetans prefer to move to western countries, especially the US, so that they can have a stronger say, and impact the policymaking to have Tibet-friendly policies.
The US, for example, has passed the Tibet Policy and Support Act 2020, which seeks to affirm the right of the Tibetan Buddhist community in selecting their own religious leaders, including the Dalai Lama.
These dwindling numbers, experts say, are unlikely to impact the recognition of Dalai Lama’s reincarnation, or even the Tibetan movement.
“The Tibetan Movement has survived worldwide because of the Tibetan commitment to it, which is a unique example with no parallel in the history of exiles,” said Mathur.
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