New Delhi: Before a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi Tuesday United States President Trump said he believed that if Modi and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan “meet and get to know each other, a lot of fruitful and peaceful things can be expected”.
He was confident that these “two great gentleman”, as he called them, will “get along” – “I have a very good relationship with Prime Minister Modi. I have a very good relationship with Prime Minister Imran Khan,’’ he added.
He praised Modi as the “Father of India’’ and compared him to American rock star Elvis Presley, after the resounding success of the `Howdy Modi’ event in Houston last Sunday that he had attended. Asked about Kashmir by and Indian journalist, he said, “Your prime minister will take care of it…’’
A day earlier, he had met Khan and had offered to mediate on relations between the two countries, calling himself a good “arbitrator”. “If I can help I would certainly do that. And it will be dependent on both of these gentlemen,” he added. “I want everyone to be treated well.”
This is just one example of President’s Trump delicate balancing act between India and Pakistan, something he has been doing increasingly in the last few months as he tries to keep the two countries happy.
Before this, Trump had barely been invested in the on goings in South Asia barring the odd trade issue, such as the tariffs imposed on Harley Davidson motorcycles. He had been persistent that India reduce the duty on motorcycles to zero, and claimed to have spoken to Modi about it.
“So, when Harley sends over there, they have 100 per cent tax. When they (India) send in they make a tremendous number of motorcycles when they send them in, no tax. I called him. I said it’s unacceptable,” Trump had then said.
As for Pakistan, he had been nothing short of dramatic and angry. Over a year ago, Trump had accused Pakistan of ‘giving nothing’ but ‘lies and deceit’ in a tweet. At the time he believed that Pakistan was not doing enough to combat terrorism despite receiving billions of dollars in aid, especially military aid.
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The discovery of South Asia
Trump’s discovery of the South Asia appears to have begun when he met Khan on 22 July. “If I can help, I would love to be a mediator,” Trump had then asserted. “If I can do anything to help, let me know.”
Trump didn’t just offer to mediate, he also said that PM Modi had reached out to him asking for his help on the issue —something that India has strongly denied.
Trump’s involvement in the subcontinent further intensified after the Modi government decided to revoke Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir on 5 August.
In fact, Trump reached out by calling both Modi and Khan, where he insisted on reducing tensions between the two.
Trump has been quite insistent since then that he can play a vital role here, either to mediate or start a dialogue between Indian Prime Minister Modi and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan over the Kashmir issue. However, when confronted with situations where he needs to take a stand, he finds himself backtracking.
For instance, at the `Howdy, Modi!’ event in Houston, Modi and Trump displayed hand-in-hand bonhomie on the stage and Trump gave Modi a ringing endorsement – he described Modi as America’s greatest, most loyal friend, adding that he was doing an exceptional job for India.
A day later, Trump also put his ‘trust’ in Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, calling him “great leader’’ and a “good man’’, besides the offer of mediation on Kashmir.
Modi’s friend or Imran’s Trustee?
Before the stage was set for Howdy, Modi! Donald Trump tweeted expressing his excitement to ‘be with his friend’, and conveying the United States’ love for India.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1175781770974744579?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1175848139112308739?s=20
The next day, while addressing a group of journalists in the White House, along with Khan, Trump said that he believed ‘people in his position’ had treated Pakistan ‘very badly’. He also claimed to have “many Pakistani friends’’. When Trump was asked if he trusted Pakistan, he replied, “I trust this gentleman right here and I do trust Pakistan.”
Over a year ago, that ‘trust’ in Pakistan was missing when Trump had accused Pakistan of ‘giving nothing’ but ‘lies and deceit’, in a tweet.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/947802588174577664?s=20
Also read: Why Modi-Trump bonhomie reminds India, US of Nehru and Eisenhower
Trump’s stance on Terrorism
Trump’s stance on ‘terror masterminds’ has also remained shifty. The president was in agreement with PM Modi on the issue of border security, “We must protect our borders…. Border security is vital for the US, border security is vital for India, we understand that.”
Trump’s call to eradicate radical Islamic terrorism earned a standing ovation from PM Modi.
Trump was also impressed by the reception at the NRG stadium in Houston to PM Modi’s thinly veiled attack on Pakistan: “I heard a very aggressive statement yesterday. I don’t have to say that. I was there. I didn’t know I was going to hear that statement yesterday from India, from the Prime Minister, and I will say it was very well received within the room. The statement itself. That was a big room; there were 59,000 people.”
When asked by a reporter on whether he endorsed India’s claim that Pakistan was the ‘hub of terrorism’, Trump refused to reply directly. Instead he deftly deflected the question with his response, “I really have been pointing much more to Iran. I mean, Iran if you look at what, that’s been really the state of terror. And I’ve been saying it’s the number one state of terror in the world.”
He gave the same kind of response the next day to the Indian media:
Yet another offer of mediation
Trump’s offer of mediation on 22 July, and his claim that Modi asked for help was immediately denied by India. India has always maintained that Kashmir is a bilateral issue.
Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Raveesh Kumar also denied that Modi had made any request to Trump to mediate on Kashmir.
Trump then retreated from his offer. On the sidelines of the G-7 Summit in Biarritz in France in August, Trump sat quietly when PM Modi stated categorically that Kashmir was an internal issue. After the G-7 Summit in August, the White House claimed, “In his meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, President Trump reaffirmed the need for dialogue between India and Pakistan and also worked to build on the great economic relations between our nations.”
Cut to 23 September and to his meeting with Imran Khan, Trump hoped for a ‘solution’ and that India and Pakistan could ‘come together’ and would do ‘something that would be smart and good for both’.
Offering to mediate the Kashmir issue once again, Trump said, “If I can help, I would certainly do. It will be dependent on both of these gentlemen (Modi and Khan), one without the other doesn’t work if you’re going to do mediation or if you’re going to do an arbitration. Certainly I would be willing to help if both Pakistan and India wanted me to do that. I am ready, willing and able.”
Despite Modi’s repeated efforts to assert Kashmir as an internal issue, Trump remained confident that India “may come forward” for mediation because he has “a very good relationship with Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Khan,” and if “they say you know we have some points we can iron out, I think I’d be an extremely good arbitrator”.
In fact, Trump tweeted expressing hope on India and Pakistan “working out” the issue, however it was deleted by him later.
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Trade tales with Trump
Addressing the gathering at the Howdy Modi event in Houston, Trump said, “I look forward to working with you (Modi) to make our countries even more prosperous.” He claimed that India had never invested in the United States before as it is doing now. In addition, Trump claimed that he looked forward to concluding ‘new defence deals’ with India.
The bilateral meeting with Modi on Tuesday in New York was meant to unveil a much-awaited trade package, “one while will ease the entry of American goods into Indian markets”.
But this trade deal did not come through as Trump clarified, “We have a trade deal soon. We have a bigger trade deal down the road.”
He was equally forthcoming in his meeting with Pakistan PM Khan on the margins of the UN General Assembly. Like with India, Trump claimed that“we’re going to increase trade with Pakistan by a tremendous margin”.
Trump’s shifting stances depending on which leader he is with, according to Samir Patil, former assistant director at India’s National Security Council Secretariat, has smart reasoning behind it: “It is important to understand the strength of India’s market. Just as China has utilised its market size as leverage, India has also started to think this is something which ought to be used for foreign policy objectives.”
On the other hand, Trump requires Pakistan’s help in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table to end the violence in Afghanistan which has been one of his most cherished foreign policy goals.
He may also be eyeing a Nobel prize. At the press conference with Imran Khan, he said, “I think I’ll get a Nobel prize for a lot of things if they gave it out fairly, which they don’t.”
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President Trump is not going to take sides. 2. As small a thing as GSP access – ungenerously withdrawn – is stuck. Some tinkering around the margins with NAFTA, which created a unified market for North America. Some specific issues resolved with Japan. An unnecessary trade war with Chins which no one knows how to resolve. Any Indian hopes that we have made a great friend who will be there till 2024 will remain unfulfilled. 3. After watching PM Imran Khan’s UNGA speech, it is clear that the bilateral relationship is dead. As is SAARC, a forum for India to exercise a benevolent leadership role. While President Trump will now be distracted, the State Department will likely keep a close eye on South Asia, keep conflict at bay.