On the reform track
Bibek Debroy | Chairman- Economic Advisory Council to the PM
The Indian Express
Debroy writes that even though railway reforms introduced in 2014 are “bearing fruit”, the sector needs further structural reforms.
He argues no passenger deaths have been recorded in 2019-20, which is a first, and this reflects the modernisation that the Railways is going through. He refers to the Debroy Committee, which focused on allowing private entities, changing the composition of railway board, decentralising decision making and setting up regulators among others. Debroy writes that for an organisation so old and “somewhat resistant to change”, it is remarkable that so many reforms were introduced in 2014.
Departmental wrangling is common in Indian Railways as different entities deal with different things on a platform, adds Debroy. “It is worse than the 1950s and even worse than 1905,” he writes and states that HR reforms is another addition that the Indian Railways need in 2019.
The assertion of Indian federalism gives hope
Yamini Aiyar| President and chief executive, Centre for Policy Research
Hindustan Times
Aiyar writes that India’s Opposition chief ministers have emerged as “unexpected allies” in the battle against Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC), as the tally of state governments opposed to NRC is upto 11.
She writes that citizenship is a Union government subject, but states are responsible for implementing the law and administering the NRC. In principle, states can stop processing citizenship applications and impede the entire process, she adds. However, Aiyar notes that the CAA has a clause empowering the central government to redraft the implementation rules and create a direct chain of command.
However, she adds, the “political symbolism” of the resistance is important.
Since 2014, the Modi government has had an “aggressive” agenda to centralise “political, administrative and financial powers”. Most state governments and regional parties have supported this, but the last few weeks have witnessed a “reversal in this trend”, writes Aiyar. State governments have been “quick to respond to protests, asserting their federal rights, and taking a stand against the CAA and the NRC”. This could be a “turning point in India’s current journey towards majoritarianism”, but the resistance will require states to take a principled stand against the BJP’s bid for a majoritarian identity, concludes Aiyar.
Agenda 2020: Building a good society
Tarun Das | Former director general and Chief Mentor, CII
Business Standard
Das asks whether a turnaround is possible in the new year — not only an economic recovery but “also of sentiment and confidence”. He highlights nine basic issues that need to be addressed.
First, Das talks about “the critical need for dialogue, where we not only talk to each other but, equally importantly, listen to each other”. Second, building mutual trust through this critical dialogue. Third, transparency which is “fundamental to all communication and activity”. Fourth, Das writes that “recapturing norms of simplicity” would be an important agenda for 2020. Fifth, he calls for multiple “small” solutions, “which are… much easier to implement”.
Sixth, “2020 also needs to… re-focus on implementation as distinct from announcements and promises,” he writes. Seventh, “India particularly needs to focus on technologies to improve the lives of the rural and agricultural population”. Eight, this year, he argues, “needs to see a change in the lifestyle of people, with firm focus on fitness irrespective of the weather and by changing diet habits”. Ninth, Das concludes by saying, “Indians need to revisit and review the values they believe in, the values they live by, the values which are central to their lives.”
RBI’s financial stability report
Madan Sabnavis | Chief economist, CARE Ratings
Financial Express
Sabnavis writes that RBI’s Financial Stability Report, which is brought out twice a year, is a “cogent and comprehensive representation of the state of the financial sector”. The latest FSR indicates “that the financial system has sort of stabilised, given the myriad challenges faced in the couple of years,” he writes. The “fact that CRAR (capital to risk weighted assets ratio) has improved to 15.1% is reflective of a great deal of resilience built in the system”, argues Sabnavis.
However, he adds, RBI is “cautious in the future outlook” where it “projected an increase in the gross NPA ratio to 9.9% in September 2020”. Even though it doesn’t cause alarm, it “raises the flag that the system may not yet be out of the woods”. Sabnavis explains that it indicates that “overall GDP growth till Q2 of FY 21 may still be uneasy, and the acceleration that may have been expected next year would not be witnessed during the first half of the year”.
Another factor “flagged is that the denominator will increase at a slower rate as credit is likely to be sluggish,” he writes. Sabnavis adds that an area of concern has been the NBFCs’ fund crunch and the “asset-liability mismatch that engendered the crisis is being addressed gradually”. In conclusion, Sabnavis maintains that the “financial system is definitely on the right path, but should tread cautiously as the economic cycle turns around”.
How major commodities will fare in 2020
G. Chandrashekhar | Policy commentator and Commodities market specialist
Hindu Business Line
Chandrashekhar writes that in 2019 “commodity markets were buffeted by a host of uncertainties and risks”. While some commodities like crude oil and palm crude oil “ended 2019 on a positive note”, industrial metals “have had mixed fortunes”.
In the case of crude oil, “global growth is expected to show an uptick in performance in 2020 as the effects of monetary policy easing begin to kick in,” argues Chandrashekhar. While gold has “enjoyed a stellar performance in 2019”, he writes, it is “likely to benefit from a slew of supportive factors including geopolitical risks, an accommodative monetary policy and a slightly weaker dollar” in the coming year. Chandrashekhar predicts that “after a year of subdued performance in 2019 in the aftermath of US-China trade war and growth concerns, base metals such as copper, nickel, zinc and aluminium should brace for improved market conditions in 2020”.
In the case of palm oil, “prices will remain firm until March 2020” and for cotton, “after the intended phase one deal, hopes of further de-escalation have revived the commodity”, writes Chandrashekhar.
For the people, by the police
Hanif Qureshi | IGP Law and Order, Haryana
The Telegraph
Qureshi writes that the National Crime Records Bureau reports show that crime in India has been on the decline since the 1990s. New police laws, initiatives like community policing, forensic labs and ‘Dial 100’ initiatives have also picked up, he adds. However, despite modernisation and professionalism, “trust levels in the police are nowhere near acceptable”, states Qureshi.
Citizenship satisfaction with the police is low, and Qureshi lists out two factors for this — citizens’ perception of their quality of life and the nature of direct contact with police officers. The former needs intervention by the police, government agencies and active citizenry, he writes. The nature of interaction with police, however, can be improved if the police appear to be “transparent, courteous and helpful”. Officers should identify the most frequent queries asked by citizens and define protocols on how to respond and remain polite at all times, he writes.
Customer relationship management is crucial for any organisation, writes Qureshi and argues that being helpful and civil will be important for the police to address the “trust deficit”. However, whether the police force is ready for such changes is the “moot question”, concludes Qureshi.