Why 1.5 million won’t vote when Myanmar holds its 2nd election since end of military rule

Union Election Commission of Myanmar has cancelled voting in several places, including in the Rakhine State, home to the Rohingya Muslims.

File photo of Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi with supporters | Common

New Delhi: Myanmar will hold its general elections on 8 November for the second time since the end of military rule in the country in 2011.

The last general elections were held in 2015, in which State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won a landslide victory in what was considered the first relatively free election in the country in 25 years.

This year however, roughly 1.5 million people, especially in constituencies that are home to ethnic minorities, will not be able to vote.

On 16 October, the Union Election Commission (UEC) of Myanmar had cancelled voting in 15 townships and parts of 42 others, including in the Rakhine State, home to the Rohingya Muslims who have been persecuted by the country’s military for years. The crackdown on this minority community has been termed by the United Nations as a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing”.

The election commission cited safety concerns amid the Covid-19 pandemic for cancelling polling in these areas. Myanmar has so far registered 55,804 infections and 1,307 deaths, more than any other mainland Southeast Asian country.

Like India, Myanmar follows the constituency-based electoral system.

Ethnic parties question ‘transparency’ of elections

On 19 October, an alliance of ethnic parties — Kachin State People’s Party, Mon Unity Party, Chin National League for Democracy (CNLD), Karen National Democratic Party and Kayah State Democratic Party — issued a statement urging the commission to reconsider its decision.

They argued that the voting ban has been imposed in many constituencies in Rakhine and Shan, where ethnic parties won seats in 2015, and that the commission’s decision raises concerns about “transparency, impartiality and integrity” in the forthcoming election.

Responding to it, the commission later said that it will review its decision in certain areas. It also added that the announcement was made based on recommendations by the country’s defence and home affairs ministries, military and the police. “The UEC does not make its decisions alone,” said its spokesman U Myint Naing.

If the commission does not reverse its decision, the relevant constituency seats in the Parliament will remain empty until at least 2022. This is because the next government will only take office in April next year and according to Myanmar’s election rules, a by-election cannot be held within the first or last year of a government’s term.

Burning issues, parties that are contesting

Over 90 political parties are likely to contest in a total of 1,171 seats in both houses of the Myanmar Parliament and in state legislatures in the upcoming election. A total of 6,689 candidates from political parties and 280 individuals will be running for office, said the election commission in September.

The ruling NLD and military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) are likely to remain the two largest parties in the 2020 election. However, new regional parties, like the People’s Party and the United Political Parties Alliance (UPPA) are expected to split NLD’s vote base.

Meanwhile, parties like the Union Betterment Party and the Democratic Party of National Politics, which were formed by core members of the USDP, may affect the military-backed party’s chances. Also, the ethnic parties that challenged the election commission’s decision on cancelling polling are seeking to form a coalition government.

Covid-19 management, foreign influences, Islam, refugee repatriation and nationalism are some of main issues ahead of this election, noted a report by the United States Institute of Peace.

History of elections in Myanmar

Myanmar, known as Burma then, became independent in 1948, and the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League (AFPFL) came to power. U Nu, who was a foreign minister in the Burmese government that ruled during the earlier Japanese occupation, became the prime minister.

Following a split in the AFPFL, a caretaker government led by the Army Chief of Staff, General Ne Win, was instituted from 1958-60. In 1960, U Nu’s party faction won the general elections and promoted Buddhism as the state religion.

In 1962, General Ne Win headed a military coup d´état, replacing the civilian AFPFL-government, headed by U Nu, with the Union Revolutionary Council (chaired by General Ne Win).

From 1962 to 2011, the country functioned under the rule of an oppressive military junta. While the NLD had won the 1990 elections with an overwhelming majority, it was not permitted to assume power.

By 2010, the country had undergone a political transition and elections took place again. NLD chose to boycott the polls as Aung San Suu Kyi was still under house arrest. She was released in November 2010.

The 2010 elections, in which the military-backed USDP won more than 75 per cent of the seats, were regarded as a “sham” by some critics, said former Australian Ambassador to Myanmar Trevor Wilson.

However, the elections eventually brought an end to decades of military rule and Rohingyas, many of whom had temporary identity cards, could finally vote and run for office. Three Rohingya candidates, representing constituencies in the northern Rakhine State, were also elected to the Parliament.

In the 2015 elections, the NLD formed a government after securing 390 seats out of the 498 seats that were contested for both houses of Parliament. According to the country’s military-drafted Constitution, 25 per cent of the total 664 seats are reserved for the Army.

Though the polls were “largely free“, in Aung San Suu Kyi’s own words, Rohingyas with temporary identity cards were disenfranchised. Also, NLD didn’t include any Muslim in its Central Executive Committee nor fielded any Muslim candidates.

In 2017, more than half a million Rohingyas fled to neighbouring Bangladesh following a military crackdown. Aung San Suu Kyi’s image as a human-rights icon has since been tarnished after world leaders accused Myanmar of genocide over the Rohingya crisis.

Last December, speaking before the International Criminal Court, Suu Kyi defended the military against these allegations.