It had just one term in the last 30 years, but the dominant opposition space had always been Congress’. This election has changed that.
New Delhi: Saturday’s election results reaffirm not just the BJP’s rise in the Northeast, but also the sinking fortunes of the Congress.
In the past 30 years, the Congress has led Tripura for one term (1988-93). Nevertheless, it was always the dominant opposition force, and everyone opposed to the Left Government was a Congress voter. This helped the Congress win around 10 seats and maintain a vote share of around 36 per cent.
However, all this began to change after 2014 as the BJP started making serious efforts to build its base in the Northeast.
The Tripura example
The BJP led an aggressive campaign against the Left government in Tripura. However, the Congress brass, despite regular feedback from local leaders, let the decline continue in their larger national interest of bringing the entire opposition together against the BJP.
In 2016, six Congress MLAs left the party and joined the Trinamool Congress (TMC). Last year, these MLAs left the TMC for the BJP.
This election, the Congress vote share has declined to around 2 per cent, with the party failing to win a single seat. In fact, in 55 constituencies, Congress candidates got less than a thousand votes.
“There was nothing major for us at stake,” said Adhir Ranjan Choudhary, president of the West Bengal Pradesh Congress Committee, adding “First TMC and then BJP used money power to buy the MLAs and hence we suffered.”
Giving up before the fight
The party can find some solace in its relatively better performance in Meghalaya, but what was once a Congress citadel may turn out to be a consolation prize as party leaders try hard to form the government. In the 60-member assembly, the Congress share has dropped from 29 in 2013 to an estimated 21 (including seats where it was leading on Saturday evening). The vote share, meanwhile, is down 6 percentage points to 28.7 per cent.
The Congress’ lack of seriousness for this round of elections can be gauged from the fact that party president Rahul Gandhi only campaigned for a day in Tripura. In Nagaland, the Congress couldn’t find enough candidates to contest and was completely ignored by the central leadership.
Even before the results were announced, Nagaland Congress president Kewe Khape Therie blamed C.P. Joshi, the party’s general secretary in-charge for the state, for the debacle and demanded his resignation. Joshi had advised Rahul not to campaign in Nagaland as the party was not in a good position there. As results stood Saturday evening, the Congress had drawn a blank in the 60-member assembly.
“The biggest mistake in the northeast was letting Himanta Biswa Sarma go before the Assam assembly elections,” said a Congress general secretary, adding, “He is one person who has made a lot of difference to the BJP camp.”
The national picture
In the current Lok Sabha, both the BJP and the Congress have eight MPs from the northeastern states. Going forward, the tide is only expected to tilt towards the BJP as it is in government in most states of the region. In 2014, the BJP got seven MPs from Assam and one from Arunachal Pradesh. However, with the party in government and virtually no anti-incumbency, the tally is likely to increase.
“The northeastern states always go with the party ruling the Centre,” said senior Congress leader Ashok Gehlot. “The BJP shouldn’t be happy with this victory,” he added.
However, the BJP’s performance is a big achievement given that the Congress could not clinch Tripura from the Left despite being at the Centre for 10 years, and the Amit Shah-led party was nowhere in the picture until recently.
The larger impact of the results would be felt in neighbouring West Bengal. “Tripura has a large Bengali population and the BJP victory there would influence the population here in West Bengal towards the BJP,” said Adhir Ranjan Choudhary of the West Bengal Congress.
“The TMC is deliberately eliminating the secular opposition space here with the BJP. It is time for the secular parties and the Left to face the reality and join hands with the Congress,” he added.
On the road to Karnataka
A defeat like this could upstage the momentum built by the Congress after winning bypolls in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The party faces a tough battle in Karnataka, headed for polls later this year, and the BJP will try to take advantage of the situation.
Besides, barring Punjab, the BJP has been able to curtail anti-incumbency, while the Congress has been voted out of most states where it was in office.
However, senior Congress leader Oscar Fernandes said there wasn’t much to worry about. “There is strong anti-incumbency against the BJP in north and central India. Don’t take the current round of results as the mood of the nation,” he added.