Indian power projection and influence will greatly depend on the choices of small powers — or partner countries — that exercise great agency despite power asymmetries.
Ayni’s origins lie in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, when the United States invaded Afghanistan and the international order briefly seemed open to new alignments.
Tajikistan did not want to extend the lease because of apparent pressure from Russia & China over non-regional military personnel at the air base, it is learnt.
The GMA or the Ayni airbase is just west of the Tajik capital Dushanbe. It has been administered by India along with Tajikistan for nearly two decades.
After dominating India’s crude imports since 2023, Russian supplies slowed amid US sanctions, but a 30-day ‘waiver’ amid West Asia tensions could now push flows back towards 2 mbpd.
Trump has ushered in the age of humiliation. His method is to push around America’s friends rudely and publicly. He knows none of them can afford to fight back.
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