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BharatMata ki Jai. An interesting analysis and forecast,150 days ahead of the polls. The BJP almost got the Janata route, albeit in a unique way. It did not crumble, but has traversed its course and will complete the full term. If it did not crumble, the reason is absence of an Indira Gandhi. And, yes, Chaudhary. Next allies deserted. First Sena and last Desam. That will have an impact. If someone wants a recipe to fritter away goodwill and lose popularity and public esteem, BJP gives for free both recipe and menu gor disaster. Let Us not talk of achhe din or swiss money nefted in our bank accounts. Having achieved the impossible, the BJP must have focussed on administration…., Clean and simple helping all strata of each constituency. It must have stopped mocking at Maa Beta. It must have stayed above board and given a good administration. What nonsense the public debate was on paav bhaji or kalyani Biryani, or whatever.
Many things. Back to the point . I have been telling my circle for the past two years …… Not linked to Remonetisation. It is an uphill task for NaMo and BJP
Look, within nine months it fall flat on the ground and bloodied its nose and muddied its face. Notwithstanding the boast of tem crore membership, it got a kick in the back from a former ally in Bihar. Gujarat is no victory. Mere clinging to power. Tripura should be no consolation.
If BJP clamoured for change in Tripura, it must honour that rule in MP. It has written off Rajasthan
Look, voter do not blindly vote for the party or its leader. Amit Shah may be Sitaram Kesri Incarnate. Yet indian voter has a unique style. Times have changed. . in 1977 Indira was routed
In2004 Vajpayee was routed
Many factors helped the BJP in 2014. Anna Hazare, Amir Khan and SG (scam g). It is an onerous task , but the BJP can enact a variant of Kargil incursion.
From DayOne, border has witnessed heinous acts. But can we wake up now? All of a sudden.
The post May 15 Karnataka Assembly Poll Results Saga did offer it
MAGICAL FORMULA to write a new political narrative serving as an
eye-opener !
Mr. Yogendra Yadav- a seasoned psephologist turned politician is alright
going in for analysis of the ensuing 2019 Lok Sabha Polls applying his
own yardsticks !
But to my mind, the avenues are quite bright for the opposition to tame
BJP if it does not follow suicidal mode of splitting opposition votes !
Nothing typical for the opposition now, it has to dodge the BJP by plugging
all the loopeholes in the Post May 15, 2018 Karnataka Assembly Poll Results
Saga Style adhering to NATION ABOVE EVERYTHING spirit !
It is indeed the latest time tested experiment which opposition must stick to in
in the best interests of INDIA that is BHARAT !
All the people here saying how Yadav is biased and his opinion can’t be taken seriously, please also explain which part of his assessment is incorrect or wrong.
The disclaimers made by Mr Yadav are in order; however he has not disclosed everything. His is a biased viewpoint and without hearing the arguments of the other camp, it would be incorrect to draw any conclusions. For example : “Bjp will not get more than 80 seats” says Congress spokesperson does not carry too much weight.
I agree with your assessment, it would be Herculean task for modi and Amit shah to repeat 2014. Opposition would be more United this time. Modi has lost a big constiuecy of voters who voted for development last time.now they are again simmering the religion plot.
Perhaps for the first time I noted that Sh.Yogendra Yadav has faltered miserably in drawing conclusions.One reason could be he is no langer a unbiased psephologist rather has become a ‘Ghagh’ politician so conclusions have been designed on political consideration not on merits. It is really disheartening to see the pitiful decline of an independent intellectual to a nasty politician.
My comment of 7.53 pm today has been tampered with (at THE PRINT) in the last line. I had put four emoji symbols to give it a lighter touch, but here I see a long string of question marks! That unnecessarily makes it rude which was not my intention. Even Mr Rathore’s comment on which mine is aimed has a lighthearted touch to it.
Kindly have this comment suitably modified at THE PRINT before putting it on line. Otherwise I would like to withdraw it. Thanks
What if The Receipt does not comes out as required than how it would be claimed that one Voter pressed X button but the Receipt says it was Y.
Ha..Ha..Ha..एक पुरानी कहानी है सर्वविदित,
रामायण की गाथा में था “एक बाली, जिसके सामने सब का ‘बल’ का 50% बाली ले जाता था ऑटोमेटिकॉली ”
तो भइया, मोदी जी को वरदान “अम्बानी” ने दिया है आपके vote का 50% मोदी @बाली हर लेगा ।”
आप चिल्लाते रहना…..☺️
Rathod ji, if the EVM is SUPPOSED to produce a receipt and the receipts stop coming out, then common sense says that vote-casting will be temporarily suspended at that booth until the problem is rectified. Benefit of doubt nahin milega.
Bali ki kahani chhodiye Sir ji, Ambani ne toh Modi ji ka bahl half nahin ZERO KAR DIYA HAI !! Bina chhillaye bhi Bhagwan sun leta hai. Issi tarah se nyaay karta hai woh — Jo apne-aap ko bhagwan samajhne lagey uski budhhi bhatka detaa hai. ????????????????
YY is a good writer and his assessment might be just right. But I think what I read in one of comments is more apt. BJP is not going to be defeated it’s going to be routed. Then we come to the EVM issue which I feel needs to be addressed legally now. The EC needs to be reigned in . In Delhi they just deleted 10 lakh voters. This should count as a criminal offence. Overall the country is in choppy waters till 2022. I hope AAP manages to organise itself by then to pose as a national alternative by then. Jai Hind
The BJP faces a formidable challenge from the SP BSP combine in UP. Don’t be surprised if at the time of the elections Ajit Singhs RLD and even the Congress join this alliance. Yogendra Ji is spot on, as things stand the BJP has a mountain to climb in UP.
I agree. Without riggng, the BJP will fall short of 150 seats. With rigging, they will get 275.
Agree
The Opposition must insist on the use of PAPER in some form in voting — either as paper receipts coming out of EVMs, or as paper ballot. To this day I have not been able to fathom how the BJP could win in UP so close on the heels of demonetization which had completely destroyed the lives of the masses.
EVM is not programmable, true, but it DOES HAVE a program built into it in a ROM chip. This program is entered into the ROM at the manufacturing stage, the process being called “burning the ROM”. As the terminology suggests, the program cannot be “unburnt” later, meaning it cannot be changed, but a DEFECTIVE program CAN BE entered at the manufacturing stage. Or, the ROM itself can be removed and a defectively programmed ROM inserted in its place. This is definitely at least a theoretical possibility.
A correctly programmed or “burnt” ROM will advance the counter X by one when button X is pressed once. A defective ROM could advance the counter Y by one when button X is pressed! Buttons X and Y being the buttons representing political parties X and Y. Or, the fault may be introduced more subtly: the malfunction would occur after 2 or 3 presses, etc.
But if a receipt comes out of the EVM on each press, then every voter will be able to SEE whether his vote has been recorded by the machine correctly or not.
BJP won the UP elections BECAUSE of demonetisation, not inspite it. It was a political masterstroke. It wiped out all the black money of BJP’s opponents, at the same time Mr.Modi came out looking like a pro poor revolutionary, taking the fight to the big, corrupt, black money hoarding rich folks, and a nationalist, targetting funding of terrorist organisations. The poor people of india are not driven by truth, they are driven by emotion. Most were happy that that this sacrifice of theirs will make the lives of corrupt rich elite miserable. My childhood friend’s father is in RBI, he is regional director of a big state. Over dinner once, i asked him what he thought was the real reasom for demonitisation, him being high up in the RBI..He looked down, smirked, leaned and whispered:”UP jeetna tha, jeet liya”(They wanted to win UP elections, and they did)..
A friend who dropped in to wish me Diwali asked me what the tally would be. 175, I said, guardedly, given to caution. I think it will be 150, he said.
I don’t know why Yogendra Yadav is getting confused with all these graphs and statistics etc. That’s the problem with researchers. They depend too much on “mind”. They forget that poor people do not think from their head but from their heart and their stomach.
To say that BJP will get only a 100 seats less (out of an earlier 300) is to say that only one third of the poor are disillusioned with Modi. I know that percentage of votes is not proportional to the percentage of seats, BUT THAT IS TRUE IN MULTI-PRONGED CONTESTS. In near-bipolar contests as is most likely to happen this time, with all opposition not dissecting each other’s votes but presenting a UNITED ONE force against BJP, the above mentioned proportionality WILL WORK.
So, by this logic, what am I trying to say? That, because all the poor people are disillusioned, all will vote against Modi and BJP? Yes, that is precisely what I’m trying to say. And by this logic, the BJP will not be just defeated, IT WILL BE ROUTED!
And that brings us to the million dollar question — doesn’t the BJP know this? In other words, will the elections at all be held in 2019?! Or is EXACTLY the 1975 going to be repeated? Hahaha, people like Yogendra Yadav think they know all. My gut feeling is, it is only God who knows all.
Your logic seems strong to me. At least the first part. BJP definitely knows it will be taken to task in the heartland region. Therefore, conjure up the vision of a grand temple (reminds me of the Temple of Doom in Indiana Jones) and organise a few riots. People in the Hindi belt love riots. I once really believed that they are all bigots. They are not. They are not religious enough by nature and if you are not religious enough, you are unlikely to be a religious bigotry. Staying in the north for the last two years, I have learnt the real reason why rioting is a popular pastime here: these people love to break laws. If BJP manages to give them a satisfactory amount of their favourite entertainment (or shall I say enough of the bread and circus for plebians), BJP will win many seats.
Where is your tinfoil hat. Are you wearing it.
You haven’t considered the power of the young generation – the ones below 30 years – to influence the result of elections. This is a growing percentage amongst voters, around 20-30% I think. There may be anger and disillusionment amongst older people, but this generation is still pinning all their hopes on Modi. They firmly believe that he is the only one who can deliver on their dreams. They are not yet disillusioned and this is amply evident from all the TV interviews of voters in Rajasthan, MP, etc. While there is no basis for their hopes, as can be seen from the factors you have outlined above, I think they will play the most important role in determining the outcome of the elections.
They are also fully focused on never spread any private facts into a third party business.
BharatMata ki Jai. An interesting analysis and forecast,150 days ahead of the polls. The BJP almost got the Janata route, albeit in a unique way. It did not crumble, but has traversed its course and will complete the full term. If it did not crumble, the reason is absence of an Indira Gandhi. And, yes, Chaudhary. Next allies deserted. First Sena and last Desam. That will have an impact. If someone wants a recipe to fritter away goodwill and lose popularity and public esteem, BJP gives for free both recipe and menu gor disaster. Let Us not talk of achhe din or swiss money nefted in our bank accounts. Having achieved the impossible, the BJP must have focussed on administration…., Clean and simple helping all strata of each constituency. It must have stopped mocking at Maa Beta. It must have stayed above board and given a good administration. What nonsense the public debate was on paav bhaji or kalyani Biryani, or whatever.
Many things. Back to the point . I have been telling my circle for the past two years …… Not linked to Remonetisation. It is an uphill task for NaMo and BJP
Look, within nine months it fall flat on the ground and bloodied its nose and muddied its face. Notwithstanding the boast of tem crore membership, it got a kick in the back from a former ally in Bihar. Gujarat is no victory. Mere clinging to power. Tripura should be no consolation.
If BJP clamoured for change in Tripura, it must honour that rule in MP. It has written off Rajasthan
Look, voter do not blindly vote for the party or its leader. Amit Shah may be Sitaram Kesri Incarnate. Yet indian voter has a unique style. Times have changed. . in 1977 Indira was routed
In2004 Vajpayee was routed
Many factors helped the BJP in 2014. Anna Hazare, Amir Khan and SG (scam g). It is an onerous task , but the BJP can enact a variant of Kargil incursion.
From DayOne, border has witnessed heinous acts. But can we wake up now? All of a sudden.
Prof PK Sharma, Freelance Journalist,Barnala(Punjab)
The equation is very simple !
The Opposition has learnt its lessons !
The post May 15 Karnataka Assembly Poll Results Saga did offer it
MAGICAL FORMULA to write a new political narrative serving as an
eye-opener !
Mr. Yogendra Yadav- a seasoned psephologist turned politician is alright
going in for analysis of the ensuing 2019 Lok Sabha Polls applying his
own yardsticks !
But to my mind, the avenues are quite bright for the opposition to tame
BJP if it does not follow suicidal mode of splitting opposition votes !
Nothing typical for the opposition now, it has to dodge the BJP by plugging
all the loopeholes in the Post May 15, 2018 Karnataka Assembly Poll Results
Saga Style adhering to NATION ABOVE EVERYTHING spirit !
It is indeed the latest time tested experiment which opposition must stick to in
in the best interests of INDIA that is BHARAT !
Prof PK Sharma, Freelance Journalist
Pom Anm Nest, Barnala (Punjab )
All the people here saying how Yadav is biased and his opinion can’t be taken seriously, please also explain which part of his assessment is incorrect or wrong.
It would help us all.
Yogendra has done a very correct analysis. BJP would be confined to 175 to 200.
Haha
Most Biased analysis of poll outcome for 2019
ऐसे मुंगेरीलाल रोज सपने देखते है। 400 सीटें मिलेंगी, और नवभारत का निर्माण आरम्भ होगा।
The disclaimers made by Mr Yadav are in order; however he has not disclosed everything. His is a biased viewpoint and without hearing the arguments of the other camp, it would be incorrect to draw any conclusions. For example : “Bjp will not get more than 80 seats” says Congress spokesperson does not carry too much weight.
I agree with your assessment, it would be Herculean task for modi and Amit shah to repeat 2014. Opposition would be more United this time. Modi has lost a big constiuecy of voters who voted for development last time.now they are again simmering the religion plot.
Perhaps for the first time I noted that Sh.Yogendra Yadav has faltered miserably in drawing conclusions.One reason could be he is no langer a unbiased psephologist rather has become a ‘Ghagh’ politician so conclusions have been designed on political consideration not on merits. It is really disheartening to see the pitiful decline of an independent intellectual to a nasty politician.
My comment of 7.53 pm today has been tampered with (at THE PRINT) in the last line. I had put four emoji symbols to give it a lighter touch, but here I see a long string of question marks! That unnecessarily makes it rude which was not my intention. Even Mr Rathore’s comment on which mine is aimed has a lighthearted touch to it.
Kindly have this comment suitably modified at THE PRINT before putting it on line. Otherwise I would like to withdraw it. Thanks
I 100% agree with Yogendra Yadav. The NDA is losing 2019 elections……
What if The Receipt does not comes out as required than how it would be claimed that one Voter pressed X button but the Receipt says it was Y.
Ha..Ha..Ha..एक पुरानी कहानी है सर्वविदित,
रामायण की गाथा में था “एक बाली, जिसके सामने सब का ‘बल’ का 50% बाली ले जाता था ऑटोमेटिकॉली ”
तो भइया, मोदी जी को वरदान “अम्बानी” ने दिया है आपके vote का 50% मोदी @बाली हर लेगा ।”
आप चिल्लाते रहना…..☺️
Rathod ji, if the EVM is SUPPOSED to produce a receipt and the receipts stop coming out, then common sense says that vote-casting will be temporarily suspended at that booth until the problem is rectified. Benefit of doubt nahin milega.
Bali ki kahani chhodiye Sir ji, Ambani ne toh Modi ji ka bahl half nahin ZERO KAR DIYA HAI !! Bina chhillaye bhi Bhagwan sun leta hai. Issi tarah se nyaay karta hai woh — Jo apne-aap ko bhagwan samajhne lagey uski budhhi bhatka detaa hai. ????????????????
YY is a good writer and his assessment might be just right. But I think what I read in one of comments is more apt. BJP is not going to be defeated it’s going to be routed. Then we come to the EVM issue which I feel needs to be addressed legally now. The EC needs to be reigned in . In Delhi they just deleted 10 lakh voters. This should count as a criminal offence. Overall the country is in choppy waters till 2022. I hope AAP manages to organise itself by then to pose as a national alternative by then. Jai Hind
The BJP faces a formidable challenge from the SP BSP combine in UP. Don’t be surprised if at the time of the elections Ajit Singhs RLD and even the Congress join this alliance. Yogendra Ji is spot on, as things stand the BJP has a mountain to climb in UP.
Sorry.
You may call me anti national yet I strongly opine:
Presence of international observers in forthcoming elections is a MUST.
I agree. Without riggng, the BJP will fall short of 150 seats. With rigging, they will get 275.
Agree
The Opposition must insist on the use of PAPER in some form in voting — either as paper receipts coming out of EVMs, or as paper ballot. To this day I have not been able to fathom how the BJP could win in UP so close on the heels of demonetization which had completely destroyed the lives of the masses.
EVM is not programmable, true, but it DOES HAVE a program built into it in a ROM chip. This program is entered into the ROM at the manufacturing stage, the process being called “burning the ROM”. As the terminology suggests, the program cannot be “unburnt” later, meaning it cannot be changed, but a DEFECTIVE program CAN BE entered at the manufacturing stage. Or, the ROM itself can be removed and a defectively programmed ROM inserted in its place. This is definitely at least a theoretical possibility.
A correctly programmed or “burnt” ROM will advance the counter X by one when button X is pressed once. A defective ROM could advance the counter Y by one when button X is pressed! Buttons X and Y being the buttons representing political parties X and Y. Or, the fault may be introduced more subtly: the malfunction would occur after 2 or 3 presses, etc.
But if a receipt comes out of the EVM on each press, then every voter will be able to SEE whether his vote has been recorded by the machine correctly or not.
BJP won the UP elections BECAUSE of demonetisation, not inspite it. It was a political masterstroke. It wiped out all the black money of BJP’s opponents, at the same time Mr.Modi came out looking like a pro poor revolutionary, taking the fight to the big, corrupt, black money hoarding rich folks, and a nationalist, targetting funding of terrorist organisations. The poor people of india are not driven by truth, they are driven by emotion. Most were happy that that this sacrifice of theirs will make the lives of corrupt rich elite miserable. My childhood friend’s father is in RBI, he is regional director of a big state. Over dinner once, i asked him what he thought was the real reasom for demonitisation, him being high up in the RBI..He looked down, smirked, leaned and whispered:”UP jeetna tha, jeet liya”(They wanted to win UP elections, and they did)..
A friend who dropped in to wish me Diwali asked me what the tally would be. 175, I said, guardedly, given to caution. I think it will be 150, he said.
I don’t know why Yogendra Yadav is getting confused with all these graphs and statistics etc. That’s the problem with researchers. They depend too much on “mind”. They forget that poor people do not think from their head but from their heart and their stomach.
To say that BJP will get only a 100 seats less (out of an earlier 300) is to say that only one third of the poor are disillusioned with Modi. I know that percentage of votes is not proportional to the percentage of seats, BUT THAT IS TRUE IN MULTI-PRONGED CONTESTS. In near-bipolar contests as is most likely to happen this time, with all opposition not dissecting each other’s votes but presenting a UNITED ONE force against BJP, the above mentioned proportionality WILL WORK.
So, by this logic, what am I trying to say? That, because all the poor people are disillusioned, all will vote against Modi and BJP? Yes, that is precisely what I’m trying to say. And by this logic, the BJP will not be just defeated, IT WILL BE ROUTED!
And that brings us to the million dollar question — doesn’t the BJP know this? In other words, will the elections at all be held in 2019?! Or is EXACTLY the 1975 going to be repeated? Hahaha, people like Yogendra Yadav think they know all. My gut feeling is, it is only God who knows all.
Your logic seems strong to me. At least the first part. BJP definitely knows it will be taken to task in the heartland region. Therefore, conjure up the vision of a grand temple (reminds me of the Temple of Doom in Indiana Jones) and organise a few riots. People in the Hindi belt love riots. I once really believed that they are all bigots. They are not. They are not religious enough by nature and if you are not religious enough, you are unlikely to be a religious bigotry. Staying in the north for the last two years, I have learnt the real reason why rioting is a popular pastime here: these people love to break laws. If BJP manages to give them a satisfactory amount of their favourite entertainment (or shall I say enough of the bread and circus for plebians), BJP will win many seats.
Where is your tinfoil hat. Are you wearing it.
You haven’t considered the power of the young generation – the ones below 30 years – to influence the result of elections. This is a growing percentage amongst voters, around 20-30% I think. There may be anger and disillusionment amongst older people, but this generation is still pinning all their hopes on Modi. They firmly believe that he is the only one who can deliver on their dreams. They are not yet disillusioned and this is amply evident from all the TV interviews of voters in Rajasthan, MP, etc. While there is no basis for their hopes, as can be seen from the factors you have outlined above, I think they will play the most important role in determining the outcome of the elections.
Freebies subsidies reservation loan waivers hold key to electoral fortunes according to politicians