RBI retained its projection of 6.5% growth, but highlighted global uncertainty, particularly due to renewed tariffs from July & volatility in commodity prices as risks to growth outlook.
India's growth post-1970 outpaced both low and middle-income countries, as well as the world economy. Yet, it has not been a “shining” record, because of poor socio-economic metrics and rising inequality.
IMF has raised India’s growth projections for current and next 2 financial years. Yet, results of major FMCG companies, and govt’s own data, shows public consumption remains subdued.
Conflict in the Middle East could upset assumptions & forecasts and, if it escalates, disrupt the oil markets. For India, it could raise worries on inflation, put pressure on the rupee.
Strong domestic demand amidst high commodity prices will raise total import bill and contribute to unfavourable developments in the current account balance, warns report.
The IMF in July had projected a gross domestic product growth of 7.4 per cent in the year starting April 2022. In January, it had predicted 8.2 per cent.
IMF slashes India's growth forecast by 3 percentage points in July World Economic Outlook report from April forecast of 12.5%, but raises 2022-23 forecast to 8.5%.
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee Thursday stunned economists and market analysts by retaining the key interest rate at 5.15 per cent after pushing through five consecutive rate cuts since February.
The rules now take effect on 1 July instead of 1 April, the Reserve Bank of India said. New rules may raise cost of raising capital for proprietary trading firms & squeeze profits.
Oleksandr Yakovenko, founder of Ukrainian drone maker TAF Industries, further went on to highlight the growing 'irrelevance' of European defence platforms.
It’s easy to understand why the government can’t speak the hard truth. When this war ends, as all wars do, India’s interests will lie with both the winner and the loser.
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